[h=1]Best Stanley Cup futures bets[/h]Ben ArledgeESPN.com
With the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning Wednesday night, the betting field has been narrowed just 16 teams. The landscape has certainly changed throughout the course of the season as the Washington Capitals (3-1) opened at 16-1, theNew York Rangers, one-time favorites out of the East, opened at 8-1 but now sit at 16-1, and the Philadelphia Flyers are down to 25-1 from opening odds of 100-1.
In our midseason futures look, we cautioned not to bet on the favorites because their odds would not improve all that much and the logic behind making a bet at the same odds much earlier in the season (without playoff picture clarity and with a looming threat of injury) didn't make much sense. The three favorites at opening were theChicago Blackhawks, Rangers, andAnaheim Ducks -- and all three have worse odds today.
However, with the regular season at a close, it's time to officially start looking at the favorites again. You are no longer solely searching for value, but instead mixing value with the team you actually believe will win the Cup.
Here are the best value bets for the 2016 Stanley Cup.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Los Angeles Kings (6-1)
The Kings are certainly for real. Despite missing the playoffs a year ago, they know what it takes to win a Cup, currently hunting for their third in five years (they roster the league's third-most career playoff games at 1,210). Goaltender Jonathan Quick's 2.22 goals against average ranks seventh in the NHL, and his playoff numbers have been known to jump to a whole other level. The team plays a gritty style that wears down opponents, as shown by its league-leading hit total, but it also possesses the puck better than any other team in the NHL. The Kings' 56.4 SAT percentage (the metric also known as Corsi, which shows percentage of shot attempts for versus against) is by far the league's best, and perhaps more impressively, that number jumps to 57.5 percent in close games.
Toss in four 20-goal scorers, and you have yourself a bona fide Stanley Cup candidate. I ultimately like the Kings over the Capitals -- but when you factor those odds in, my money lands on Los Angeles every time.
St. Louis Blues (10-1)
St. Louis is probably getting less love than it deserves. For about half a decade, the Blues have been among the Western Conference's best in the regular season, but developed a tendency to break out the golf clubs early. A major part of their problem was goaltending, but they seem to have fixed that problem this time around -- Brian Elliott closed out the season with the league's best adjusted 5-on-5 save percentage, a ravishing .939, per War on Ice. Out front, a talented defense supported Elliott, leading to a fourth-ranked 2.4 goals against per game. Vladimir Tarasenko turned in a 40-goal campaign, and 10 players eclipsed the 30-point mark. There is a lot to like in the Blues, especially at 10-1.
However, approach with caution. They are a little banged up, lack playoff experience (428 career games; 15th among playoff teams) and they have to play the Blackhawks in the opening round. If they stay healthy, the Blues will certainly make some noise, and at 10-1, they are a smart bet.
Anaheim Ducks (10-1)
After a terrible start to the season, the Ducks settled in and trucked their way to the top of the Pacific Division. They allowed the league's lowest goals per game (2.29), while also finding the net on offense -- since the All-Star break, Anaheim has scored 3.31 goals per game, the league's second-best rate. Goaltender John Gibson has been terrific this season (.920 save percentage), but should he falter, Frederik Andersen is a capable alternative.Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf each hit 60-plus points, and their unstoppable penalty kill succeeded a league-best 87.2 percent of the time. The Ducks draw Nashville in the opening round, but could face the Kings in Round 2, so they would of course have to clear that obstacle just to get to the Western Conference finals. If they survive that, the Ducks are immediately among the favorites to win it all, making those 10-1 odds fairly strong.
New York Rangers (16-1)
On paper, the Rangers are a talented team: They have five 20-goal scorers and four lines of depth. However, their defense enters the playoffs with injuries to Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. According to War on Ice, no playoff team has a worse scoring chance differential than the Rangers, who allowed 216 more chances than they produced this year. Once you factor in a lowly 78.2 percent penalty-kill unit, you are left with a team that has all the makings of an early exit, especially given a first-round matchup with Pittsburgh and a potential second-round duel with Washington. So why include them here?
Well, based on pure value at 16-1, goaltender Henrik Lundqvist gives some reason to believe. King Henrik is the only goaltender to start at least 35 playoff games since 2012 and still turn in a .930 save percentage. His career playoff numbers as a whole improve from regular season to postseason, and his Game 7 success is well documented. If the cylinders start turning for a talented Rangers team and Lundqvist stands on his head -- as we all basically assume he will -- don't be surprised if the Rangers finally run through the bracket. However, keep in mind this should be a smaller value bet, and if you are looking for a team with a very good chance to win the Cup, look elsewhere.
Tampa Bay Lightning (25-1)
The Lightning return for another Cup run one year after losing to Chicago in the finals. However, they will have to do so withoutSteven Stamkos, who underwent vascular surgery early last week, shelving him for three months. It doesn't end there, either. The Bolts come in with Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson and Ryan Callahan all hurting. Still, there is plenty to like here. Goaltender Ben Bishop was fantastic this season, helping the Lightning to the league's fifth best goals against (2.41) and a top-seven 84.0 percent penalty kill. The advanced numbers also like the Lightning -- their 52.2 SAT percentage was sixth in the NHL. At 25-1, they are your best longshot bet, but like the Rangers, appear to be more of a value bet than a confidence bet.
The better way to handle the Lightning: Bet them at 12-1 to win the Eastern Conference.
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</article>Yes, the East has more-talented favorites in the Capitals and Penguins, but consider the Lightning's potential path to the finals: They draw low-scoring Detroit in the opening round, before facing either the probably-still-too-youngFlorida Panthers or the middling (and banged up) New York Islanders in the second round. Of those four, Tampa Bay is probably the most likely to make their way to the conference finals, unless Florida continues its out-of-nowhere season. So, assuming the Lightning play up to their potential -- the same potential that brought them within two wins of a championship one year ago -- they would be just four wins away from the finals at that point and have enough talent to at the very least give whichever team comes out of the Metropolitan a fight.
With the Stanley Cup playoffs beginning Wednesday night, the betting field has been narrowed just 16 teams. The landscape has certainly changed throughout the course of the season as the Washington Capitals (3-1) opened at 16-1, theNew York Rangers, one-time favorites out of the East, opened at 8-1 but now sit at 16-1, and the Philadelphia Flyers are down to 25-1 from opening odds of 100-1.
In our midseason futures look, we cautioned not to bet on the favorites because their odds would not improve all that much and the logic behind making a bet at the same odds much earlier in the season (without playoff picture clarity and with a looming threat of injury) didn't make much sense. The three favorites at opening were theChicago Blackhawks, Rangers, andAnaheim Ducks -- and all three have worse odds today.
However, with the regular season at a close, it's time to officially start looking at the favorites again. You are no longer solely searching for value, but instead mixing value with the team you actually believe will win the Cup.
Here are the best value bets for the 2016 Stanley Cup.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Kings are certainly for real. Despite missing the playoffs a year ago, they know what it takes to win a Cup, currently hunting for their third in five years (they roster the league's third-most career playoff games at 1,210). Goaltender Jonathan Quick's 2.22 goals against average ranks seventh in the NHL, and his playoff numbers have been known to jump to a whole other level. The team plays a gritty style that wears down opponents, as shown by its league-leading hit total, but it also possesses the puck better than any other team in the NHL. The Kings' 56.4 SAT percentage (the metric also known as Corsi, which shows percentage of shot attempts for versus against) is by far the league's best, and perhaps more impressively, that number jumps to 57.5 percent in close games.
Toss in four 20-goal scorers, and you have yourself a bona fide Stanley Cup candidate. I ultimately like the Kings over the Capitals -- but when you factor those odds in, my money lands on Los Angeles every time.
St. Louis is probably getting less love than it deserves. For about half a decade, the Blues have been among the Western Conference's best in the regular season, but developed a tendency to break out the golf clubs early. A major part of their problem was goaltending, but they seem to have fixed that problem this time around -- Brian Elliott closed out the season with the league's best adjusted 5-on-5 save percentage, a ravishing .939, per War on Ice. Out front, a talented defense supported Elliott, leading to a fourth-ranked 2.4 goals against per game. Vladimir Tarasenko turned in a 40-goal campaign, and 10 players eclipsed the 30-point mark. There is a lot to like in the Blues, especially at 10-1.
However, approach with caution. They are a little banged up, lack playoff experience (428 career games; 15th among playoff teams) and they have to play the Blackhawks in the opening round. If they stay healthy, the Blues will certainly make some noise, and at 10-1, they are a smart bet.
After a terrible start to the season, the Ducks settled in and trucked their way to the top of the Pacific Division. They allowed the league's lowest goals per game (2.29), while also finding the net on offense -- since the All-Star break, Anaheim has scored 3.31 goals per game, the league's second-best rate. Goaltender John Gibson has been terrific this season (.920 save percentage), but should he falter, Frederik Andersen is a capable alternative.Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf each hit 60-plus points, and their unstoppable penalty kill succeeded a league-best 87.2 percent of the time. The Ducks draw Nashville in the opening round, but could face the Kings in Round 2, so they would of course have to clear that obstacle just to get to the Western Conference finals. If they survive that, the Ducks are immediately among the favorites to win it all, making those 10-1 odds fairly strong.
On paper, the Rangers are a talented team: They have five 20-goal scorers and four lines of depth. However, their defense enters the playoffs with injuries to Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi. According to War on Ice, no playoff team has a worse scoring chance differential than the Rangers, who allowed 216 more chances than they produced this year. Once you factor in a lowly 78.2 percent penalty-kill unit, you are left with a team that has all the makings of an early exit, especially given a first-round matchup with Pittsburgh and a potential second-round duel with Washington. So why include them here?
Well, based on pure value at 16-1, goaltender Henrik Lundqvist gives some reason to believe. King Henrik is the only goaltender to start at least 35 playoff games since 2012 and still turn in a .930 save percentage. His career playoff numbers as a whole improve from regular season to postseason, and his Game 7 success is well documented. If the cylinders start turning for a talented Rangers team and Lundqvist stands on his head -- as we all basically assume he will -- don't be surprised if the Rangers finally run through the bracket. However, keep in mind this should be a smaller value bet, and if you are looking for a team with a very good chance to win the Cup, look elsewhere.
The Lightning return for another Cup run one year after losing to Chicago in the finals. However, they will have to do so withoutSteven Stamkos, who underwent vascular surgery early last week, shelving him for three months. It doesn't end there, either. The Bolts come in with Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson and Ryan Callahan all hurting. Still, there is plenty to like here. Goaltender Ben Bishop was fantastic this season, helping the Lightning to the league's fifth best goals against (2.41) and a top-seven 84.0 percent penalty kill. The advanced numbers also like the Lightning -- their 52.2 SAT percentage was sixth in the NHL. At 25-1, they are your best longshot bet, but like the Rangers, appear to be more of a value bet than a confidence bet.
The better way to handle the Lightning: Bet them at 12-1 to win the Eastern Conference.
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</article>Yes, the East has more-talented favorites in the Capitals and Penguins, but consider the Lightning's potential path to the finals: They draw low-scoring Detroit in the opening round, before facing either the probably-still-too-youngFlorida Panthers or the middling (and banged up) New York Islanders in the second round. Of those four, Tampa Bay is probably the most likely to make their way to the conference finals, unless Florida continues its out-of-nowhere season. So, assuming the Lightning play up to their potential -- the same potential that brought them within two wins of a championship one year ago -- they would be just four wins away from the finals at that point and have enough talent to at the very least give whichever team comes out of the Metropolitan a fight.
