Best college football conference championship value bets
Sharon Katz
ESPN INSIDER
With the 2015 college football season less than 50 days away, it's time to take a look at the best conference championship bets, based on sportsbook operator CG Technology's updated odds. The favorites in the Power 5 conferences remain the four teams to participate in the 2014 College Football Playoff and the two Big 12 teams that barely missed the cut.
Do we really expect last season to replicate itself? Every year there are teams that come out of nowhere to win their conference championships. TCU did it last season and Auburn shocked the SEC the season before. Which teams this year will be the conference championship value bets?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) preseason projections, we will break down which teams FPI favors and which ones it believes could provide value in each Power 5 conference. To find the hidden gems, we looked at each team's expected return on a $100 bet. We calculated this return by multiplying each team's payout if it were to win its conference -- based on CG Technology's odds -- by the chance that it would actually win (using FPI's projections). The teams with the highest expected return are often teams with a viable chance to win their conference that would also produce a significant payout.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">Conference Championship Odds
Sportsbook operator CG Technology updated its college football conference championship odds on July 21:
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</aside>The obvious question is why rely on FPI for this type of information? Last season, the first season of FPI's preseason projections, it correctly identified seven of the 10 conference champions in the preseason, and its preseason win totals projections were within 1.5 wins of the actual totals of more than half of the FBS teams. In terms of individual game predictions, the team FPI favored won 76 percent of FBS-only games in 2014, which ranked first out of 72 systems we tracked last season (includes Vegas closing line). Dating back to 2005, FPI has a 75 percent success rate when predicting games, so it is a system with a proven track record.
SEC
Vegas favorite: Alabama Crimson Tide (13-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Georgia Bulldogs (25 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Tennessee Volunteers(11-1 odds, 13 percent by FPI)
CG Technology pins Alabama (13-5) as the favorite to win the SEC, but FPI projects that Georgia has the best chance to win the conference. The main reason that FPI favors Georgia is its schedule; Alabama is projected to play the toughest schedule in the nation and has to deal with a loaded SEC West, while Georgia has a fairly manageable path to the SEC championship game through the SEC East.
For this same reason, Tennessee is the best value bet in the nation. The Vols currently have the seventh-best odds to win the SEC, but FPI projects that they have the third-best chance (and a higher chance than Alabama) to win the conference. A $100 bet on Tennessee would result in an expected return of $74, based on the current Vegas and FPI odds, best of any Power 5 team.
The Vols return an SEC-high 18 starters to a team that improved in all three phases of the game last season. They have signed consecutive top-five recruiting classes, so they have the talent on their roster to compete. Add in the fact that as a member of the SEC East, Tennessee has fewer teams to contend with for a division title, and the Vols may be the best "sleeper" in the country entering the season.
ACC
Vegas favorite: Florida State Seminoles (9-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Clemson Tigers (26 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1 odds, 14 percent by FPI)
ACC Atlantic foes Florida State and Clemson are the top teams in the conference, according to FPI and Vegas, but there is value in choosing a team from the opposite division to win the title. Virginia Tech is FPI's favorite in the ACC Coastal Division (28 percent chance to win), and considering the Hokies pay out twice the rate of either Clemson or FSU, they are a great bet heading into the season.
Although Virginia Tech has muddled around .500 in each of the past three seasons, there are reasons to believe it can return to the double-digit win totals that defined the program for most of the BCS era. The Hokies return 16 starters, including quarterback Michael Brewer, to a team that lost five of its six games last season by a combined 20 points. FPI expects its defense, which has ranked in the top 12 in efficiency in each of the past three seasons, to again be one of the best in the nation under Bud Foster.
The Hokies also have a favorable schedule by avoiding Florida State, Clemson and Louisville in their crossover games with the opposite division, so it could be worth taking a flier on Frank Beamer's Hokies.
Pac-12
Vegas favorite: Oregon Ducks (3-2 odds)
FPI favorite: Oregon Ducks (36 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Stanford Cardinal (6-1 odds, 16 percent by FPI)
Oregon is the favorite to win the Pac-12 by Vegas and FPI, but another team from the Pac-12 North may be the better value bet. Stanford has one of the easiest conference schedules in the Pac-12, with three of its four road games against Washington State, Colorado and Oregon State (combined 4-23 in conference play last year).
Stanford struggled offensively last season, but with nine players returning on that side of the ball, including quarterback Kevin Hogan, the Cardinal should improve in 2015. FPI believes that Stanford has the fourth-best chance to win the conference, but if it can beat Oregon, which it hosts on Nov. 14, those odds would rise significantly.
Big 12
Vegas favorite: TCU Horned Frogs (6-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Baylor Bears (37 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Baylor Bears (12-5 odds, 37 percent by FPI)
After finishing with two true champions last season, the Big 12 is again expected to have one of the closest conference races in the country. FPI favors Baylor over TCU by the slightest margin (37.4 percent versus 36.9 percent), while CG Technology gives the Horned Frogs the edge.
The Bears are the only Power 5 team that is both the favorite and best value bet in its conference. It is worth noting, however, that a $100 bet on any Big 12 team would not result in a positive expected return.
Baylor returns a Big 12-high 18 starters to a team that won -- or shared -- the Big 12 championship each of the past two seasons. The Bears have to replace quarterback Bryce Petty, but even without Petty, FPI projects they will have the most efficient offense in the nation. Baylor has a tough road conference schedule (Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State), but it plays one fewer road conference game than TCU, which is a major reason why it is favored by FPI in the projections.
Big Ten
Vegas favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes (2-7 odds)
FPI favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes (63 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-1 odds, 6 percent by FPI)
There is no doubt that Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten. CG Technology set the line at minus-350, meaning you'd have to bet $350 to win $100, and FPI gives the Buckeyes a 63 percent chance to win. Although there is value in betting the odds-on favorite, the payout is so small that it may be worth looking elsewhere in the Big Ten.
The Big Ten actually provides the least value of any Power 5 conference, but if forced to take a flier, Nebraska is the top bet because of its division and schedule. For a second straight season, the Cornhuskers avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the regular season. As a member of the relatively weak Big Ten West, Nebraska also has a favorable path to the Big Ten championship game. Although the Cornhuskers would be a marked underdog against the winner of the Big Ten East, anything is possible in a one-game setting. At 15-1 odds, the Cornhuskers may be a team worth taking a chance on.
Sharon Katz
ESPN INSIDER
With the 2015 college football season less than 50 days away, it's time to take a look at the best conference championship bets, based on sportsbook operator CG Technology's updated odds. The favorites in the Power 5 conferences remain the four teams to participate in the 2014 College Football Playoff and the two Big 12 teams that barely missed the cut.
Do we really expect last season to replicate itself? Every year there are teams that come out of nowhere to win their conference championships. TCU did it last season and Auburn shocked the SEC the season before. Which teams this year will be the conference championship value bets?<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) preseason projections, we will break down which teams FPI favors and which ones it believes could provide value in each Power 5 conference. To find the hidden gems, we looked at each team's expected return on a $100 bet. We calculated this return by multiplying each team's payout if it were to win its conference -- based on CG Technology's odds -- by the chance that it would actually win (using FPI's projections). The teams with the highest expected return are often teams with a viable chance to win their conference that would also produce a significant payout.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">Conference Championship Odds
Sportsbook operator CG Technology updated its college football conference championship odds on July 21:
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| SEC | BIG TEN |
| Alabama 13-5 | Illinois 200-1 |
| Arkansas 10-1 | Indiana 100-1 |
| Auburn 9-2 | Iowa 35-1 |
| Florida 25-1 | Maryland 100-1 |
| Georgia 13-5 | Michigan 10-1 |
| Kentucky 100-1 | Michigan State 4-1 |
| LSU 8-1 | Minnesota 35-1 |
| Mississippi State 30-1 | Nebraska 15-1 |
| Missouri 13-1 | Northwestern 45-1 |
| Ole Miss 8-1 | Ohio State -350 |
| South Carolina 30-1 | Penn State 23-1 |
| Tennessee 11-1 | Purdue 200-1 |
| Texas A&M 11-1 | Rutgers 100-1 |
| Vanderbilt 150-1 | Wisconsin 6-1 |
| PAC-12 | ACC |
| Arizona 7-1 | Boston College 30-1 |
| Arizona State 6-1 | Clemson 11-5 |
| California 40-1 | Duke 13-1 |
| Colorado 50-1 | Florida State 9-5 |
| Oregon 3-2 | Georgia Tech 6-1 |
| Oregon State 100-1 | Louisville 8-1 |
| Stanford 6-1 | Miami (FL) 13-1 |
| UCLA 4-1 | NC State 14-1 |
| USC 3-1 | North Carolina 13-1 |
| Utah 10-1 | Pittsburgh 18-1 |
| Washington 30-1 | Syracuse 55-1 |
| Washington State 50-1 | Virginia 55-1 |
| Virginia Tech 8-1 | |
| Wake Forest 150-1 | |
| BIG 12 | |
| Baylor 12-5 | |
| Iowa State 150-1 | |
| Kansas 500-1 | |
| Kansas State 13-1 | |
| Oklahoma 7-2 | |
| Oklahoma State 5-1 | |
| TCU 6-5 | |
| Texas 12-1 | |
| Texas Tech 40-1 | |
| West Virginia 7-1 |
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</aside>The obvious question is why rely on FPI for this type of information? Last season, the first season of FPI's preseason projections, it correctly identified seven of the 10 conference champions in the preseason, and its preseason win totals projections were within 1.5 wins of the actual totals of more than half of the FBS teams. In terms of individual game predictions, the team FPI favored won 76 percent of FBS-only games in 2014, which ranked first out of 72 systems we tracked last season (includes Vegas closing line). Dating back to 2005, FPI has a 75 percent success rate when predicting games, so it is a system with a proven track record.
SEC
Vegas favorite: Alabama Crimson Tide (13-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Georgia Bulldogs (25 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Tennessee Volunteers(11-1 odds, 13 percent by FPI)
CG Technology pins Alabama (13-5) as the favorite to win the SEC, but FPI projects that Georgia has the best chance to win the conference. The main reason that FPI favors Georgia is its schedule; Alabama is projected to play the toughest schedule in the nation and has to deal with a loaded SEC West, while Georgia has a fairly manageable path to the SEC championship game through the SEC East.
For this same reason, Tennessee is the best value bet in the nation. The Vols currently have the seventh-best odds to win the SEC, but FPI projects that they have the third-best chance (and a higher chance than Alabama) to win the conference. A $100 bet on Tennessee would result in an expected return of $74, based on the current Vegas and FPI odds, best of any Power 5 team.
The Vols return an SEC-high 18 starters to a team that improved in all three phases of the game last season. They have signed consecutive top-five recruiting classes, so they have the talent on their roster to compete. Add in the fact that as a member of the SEC East, Tennessee has fewer teams to contend with for a division title, and the Vols may be the best "sleeper" in the country entering the season.
ACC
Vegas favorite: Florida State Seminoles (9-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Clemson Tigers (26 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Virginia Tech Hokies (8-1 odds, 14 percent by FPI)
ACC Atlantic foes Florida State and Clemson are the top teams in the conference, according to FPI and Vegas, but there is value in choosing a team from the opposite division to win the title. Virginia Tech is FPI's favorite in the ACC Coastal Division (28 percent chance to win), and considering the Hokies pay out twice the rate of either Clemson or FSU, they are a great bet heading into the season.
Although Virginia Tech has muddled around .500 in each of the past three seasons, there are reasons to believe it can return to the double-digit win totals that defined the program for most of the BCS era. The Hokies return 16 starters, including quarterback Michael Brewer, to a team that lost five of its six games last season by a combined 20 points. FPI expects its defense, which has ranked in the top 12 in efficiency in each of the past three seasons, to again be one of the best in the nation under Bud Foster.
The Hokies also have a favorable schedule by avoiding Florida State, Clemson and Louisville in their crossover games with the opposite division, so it could be worth taking a flier on Frank Beamer's Hokies.
Pac-12
Vegas favorite: Oregon Ducks (3-2 odds)
FPI favorite: Oregon Ducks (36 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Stanford Cardinal (6-1 odds, 16 percent by FPI)
Oregon is the favorite to win the Pac-12 by Vegas and FPI, but another team from the Pac-12 North may be the better value bet. Stanford has one of the easiest conference schedules in the Pac-12, with three of its four road games against Washington State, Colorado and Oregon State (combined 4-23 in conference play last year).
Stanford struggled offensively last season, but with nine players returning on that side of the ball, including quarterback Kevin Hogan, the Cardinal should improve in 2015. FPI believes that Stanford has the fourth-best chance to win the conference, but if it can beat Oregon, which it hosts on Nov. 14, those odds would rise significantly.
Big 12
Vegas favorite: TCU Horned Frogs (6-5 odds)
FPI favorite: Baylor Bears (37 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Baylor Bears (12-5 odds, 37 percent by FPI)
After finishing with two true champions last season, the Big 12 is again expected to have one of the closest conference races in the country. FPI favors Baylor over TCU by the slightest margin (37.4 percent versus 36.9 percent), while CG Technology gives the Horned Frogs the edge.
The Bears are the only Power 5 team that is both the favorite and best value bet in its conference. It is worth noting, however, that a $100 bet on any Big 12 team would not result in a positive expected return.
Baylor returns a Big 12-high 18 starters to a team that won -- or shared -- the Big 12 championship each of the past two seasons. The Bears have to replace quarterback Bryce Petty, but even without Petty, FPI projects they will have the most efficient offense in the nation. Baylor has a tough road conference schedule (Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas State), but it plays one fewer road conference game than TCU, which is a major reason why it is favored by FPI in the projections.
Big Ten
Vegas favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes (2-7 odds)
FPI favorite: Ohio State Buckeyes (63 percent chance to win)
Value bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers (15-1 odds, 6 percent by FPI)
There is no doubt that Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten. CG Technology set the line at minus-350, meaning you'd have to bet $350 to win $100, and FPI gives the Buckeyes a 63 percent chance to win. Although there is value in betting the odds-on favorite, the payout is so small that it may be worth looking elsewhere in the Big Ten.
The Big Ten actually provides the least value of any Power 5 conference, but if forced to take a flier, Nebraska is the top bet because of its division and schedule. For a second straight season, the Cornhuskers avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in the regular season. As a member of the relatively weak Big Ten West, Nebraska also has a favorable path to the Big Ten championship game. Although the Cornhuskers would be a marked underdog against the winner of the Big Ten East, anything is possible in a one-game setting. At 15-1 odds, the Cornhuskers may be a team worth taking a chance on.
