Best Buy on the Future Board? How about Nashville at 250/1?

[VegasVic]

The best value on the future board can be found with Nashville at 250/1, (5dimes). At least for hedging purposes it has a solid potential to turn a profit on whatever you invest. All they need to do is make the playoffs.

The Preds are playing the best hockey of the season, boast a great defense/goaltender, and with the 4<SUP>th</SUP> ranked prospect crop, (according to The Hockey News), have lots of chips to ante up in order to bolster their front end before tomorrow‘s deadline. Their system is loaded at defense and goaltending. If they make the splash tomorrow and come out as buyers I will grab this price immediately.

They currently sit one point out of the playoffs and have their destiny in their own hands with 3 games remaining versus Columbus, 2 versus Anaheim, and 1 versus Edmonton. All teams that sit within 2 points ahead of them.

 

[Bushay]

I was reading an article last week at Sportsnet.ca that claimed the Preds would be sellers at the deadline willing to part with Sullivan, Bonk? and Greg Devries. I found it hard to believe myself still being in the thick of it.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2009/02/17/team_needs_western_conference/

 

[megold]

Vic
I am curious how you hedge once the playoffs start. Suppose you take Nashville and they make the playoffs. Likely they would play a 1 or 2 seed. Do you then play the favorite in the series just as a hedge or do you try to make some money out of the play? The thing is, should Nash happen to pull the upset in the first round, then you are having to make the same decision in the 2nd round, but with less juice to play with.
I have the Caps and the Blackhawks to win the Cup in future book plays. I am thinking of just riding with the plays in the first round, altho it appears now that the Hawks may draw the Nucks in the first round, which will certtainly be a tough series.

 

[VegasVic]

Vic
I am curious how you hedge once the playoffs start. Suppose you take Nashville and they make the playoffs. Likely they would play a 1 or 2 seed. Do you then play the favorite in the series just as a hedge or do you try to make some money out of the play? The thing is, should Nash happen to pull the upset in the first round, then you are having to make the same decision in the 2nd round, but with less juice to play with.
I have the Caps and the Blackhawks to win the Cup in future book plays. I am thinking of just riding with the plays in the first round, altho it appears now that the Hawks may draw the Nucks in the first round, which will certtainly be a tough series.

Let’s say you put $10 on Nashville at 250/1. Rather than thinking I stand to win $2,500 if Nashville wins the cup, think I’ve got $2,500 to play with that they don’t.

There are many ways to hedge off a future bet but the most straight forward and simplistic would be to do exactly what you thought. However because San Jose and Detroit would be such prohibitive favorites two things would help in this endeavor. 1) Preds finish as a 6<SUP>th</SUP> seed or higher and thereby won’t need to face either of the top two seeds in the first round. 2) Risk your $10 wager, sit on the first round, and hope Nashville advances. Then we only need to hedge on three series wagers. Needless to say if they faced Chicago in the first round you're sitting in the cat bird seat.

Let’s assume the worst scenario occurs and Nashville has to face both San Jose and Detroit in the Western semi and conference finals. Keep in mind it’s entirely possible someone can eliminate one of them and make this whole process easier and more profitable. Also, all these series odds I will propose are as they should appear at this moment of time. Who knows what injuries could occur along the way and possibly the Wings/Sharks gauntlet of today may not be who suits up in April/May. At 250/1, we have bought low and could be in the position to sell high later. But for the sake of this example let‘s say the exact rosters of today are what takes the ice then. Let’s make both -400 favorites over Nashville.


We risk $100, (laying -400) on Detroit, (or San Jose). If the Wings win we net $15, (win $25 on series bet, lose $10 on original bet). If the Preds win we need to risk another $600 on the western conference finals, (at -400). If the Preds lose we net $40, (lost $110 on our first two bets, win $150 on the series bet).


If the Preds win again we have one more hedge bet. Let’s say they face the New Jersey Devils for the cup and Jersey is made a -150 favorite. We have already invested $710. We have $1790.00 left as hedging capital. Let’s play $1500 on Jersey. If the Devils win the cup we net $290, (lost $710 on the first 3 bets, won $1000 on the cup finals). If the Preds go all the way we net $300, (lose $2200 on all three hedges but win $2500 on the original wager).

 

[megold]

Thanks Vic. I appreciate the writeup.

 

[BOBBYW]

Thanx vv.....

All over it.....

 

[VegasVic]

All over it.....

FYI...Cal-Neva book is still offering Preds at 250/1 as of this morning.

 

[BOBBYW]

THATS WHERE I GOT IT.....THANX

 

[artiesliver]

250/1, wow. My local offering 100/1 on the Preds.

Vic--You think any of these are worth it? Wish I was back out in LV to take advantage of more realistic odds.

To Win the Stanley Cup
Sun 3/8 9:00AM (PST)

1 Anaheim Ducks +4000
2 Atlanta Thrashers +10000
3 Boston Bruins +600
4 Buffalo Sabres +5000
5 Calgary Flames +750
6 Carolina Hurricanes +7500
7 Chicago Blackhawks +1000
8 Colorado Avalanche +10000
9 Columbus Blue Jackets +6000
10 Dallas Stars +2500
11 Detroit Red Wings +250
12 Edmonton Oilers +4000
13 Florida Panthers +4000
14 Los Angeles Kings +10000
15 Minnesota Wild +7500
16 Montreal Canadiens +2000
17 Nashville Predators +10000
18 New Jersey Devils +800
19 New York Islanders +10000
20 New York Rangers +2000
21 Ottawa Senators +10000
22 Philadelphia Flyers +1400
23 Phoenix Coyotes +10000
24 Pittsburgh Penguins +2000
25 San Jose Sharks +275
26 St Louis Blues +10000
27 Tampa Bay Lightning +10000
28 Toronto Maple Leafs +10000
29 Vancouver Canucks +1500
30 Washington Capitals +800

 

[VegasVic]

Best bet on the board today:

St Louis 200/1 at 5dimes. 250/1 at Canbet

 

[VegasVic]

sorry artie just now noticed your post. Give me your updated lines and let's discuss it.

 

[VegasVic]

FYI
For those in Reno or Vegas. Cal/Neva has the Blues @ 500/1

 

[VegasVic]

Also
Cbus 75/1

 

[VegasVic]

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=middle><TD colSpan=4>Western Conference</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 id=special align=left><TD align=left>Team</TD><TD align=right>GP</TD><TD align=right>W</TD><TD align=right>Pts</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>1. y-San Jose</TD><TD align=right>75</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>109</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>2. x-Detroit</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>49</TD><TD align=right>107</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>3. Calgary</TD><TD align=right>75</TD><TD align=right>43</TD><TD align=right>92</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>4. Chicago</TD><TD align=right>73</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>91</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>5. Vancouver</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>40</TD><TD align=right>89</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>6. Columbus</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>39</TD><TD align=right>86</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>7. Nashville</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>38</TD><TD align=right>84</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=left>8. St. Louis</TD><TD align=right>76</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>83</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:monsters- Wow...look what division now has all 5 teams in the playoff pool

 

[Coaster]

250/1, wow. My local offering 100/1 on the Preds.

Vic--You think any of these are worth it? Wish I was back out in LV to take advantage of more realistic odds.

To Win the Stanley Cup
Sun 3/8 9:00AM (PST)

1 Anaheim Ducks +4000
2 Atlanta Thrashers +10000
3 Boston Bruins +600
4 Buffalo Sabres +5000
5 Calgary Flames +750
6 Carolina Hurricanes +7500
7 Chicago Blackhawks +1000
8 Colorado Avalanche +10000
9 Columbus Blue Jackets +6000
10 Dallas Stars +2500
11 Detroit Red Wings +250
12 Edmonton Oilers +4000
13 Florida Panthers +4000
14 Los Angeles Kings +10000
15 Minnesota Wild +7500
16 Montreal Canadiens +2000
17 Nashville Predators +10000
18 New Jersey Devils +800
19 New York Islanders +10000
20 New York Rangers +2000
21 Ottawa Senators +10000
22 Philadelphia Flyers +1400
23 Phoenix Coyotes +10000
24 Pittsburgh Penguins +2000
25 San Jose Sharks +275
26 St Louis Blues +10000
27 Tampa Bay Lightning +10000
28 Toronto Maple Leafs +10000
29 Vancouver Canucks +1500
30 Washington Capitals +800

Canes 20 to 1 at Oly........I'd nibble on this wager.

 

[Coaster]

VV

Great post on the hedge.
Have been looking at this.

Assuming a $10 Futures play:
If you get a 1/8 or 2/7 and ML's at say -250 for G1 and G2
Parlay 1st two games on home fav for $10 returns $10
Lose and you are down $10 more but you have home ice advantage and going home 1-1 with the split.

To win series odds would fall dramatically?
Thoughts?

 

[VegasVic]

Getting -250 would be a stretch if St Louis plays at Detroit or San Jose but I understand your point. There are so many ways to hedge and some of them involve gambling. I'd rather not. My gamble was the initial investment I made when I bought the future ticket. As my example above spells out, I prefer to lock in a small profit at the start of each series. I've been doing this for a long time and have found keeping it simple is the least stressful and usualy profitable.

 

[VegasVic]

The most important aspect of this whole thing is finding great value in the original future wager. Without tremendous value none of this will work.

 

[Coaster]

I got BJ's and Canes at 80to1
Also looking at Matchbook?
Don't play it but looking.
Thanxs for all you do.

 

[VegasVic]

I got BJ's and Canes at 80to1
Also looking at Matchbook?
Don't play it but looking.
Thanxs for all you do.

Very nice. I've got them both but at only 75/1 each.