[h=1]Best bets for Super Bowl 50[/h]
Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- March Madness took on a whole different meaning earlier this month.
Five days before Selection Sunday, and a full week before the NCAA tournament tipped off, the NFL's free-agent signing period commenced on March 10. The action was as fast and furious as anything seen on the hardwood. It's now three weeks later and most of the dust has settled, so it's a good time to update the Super Bowl future-book odds and see which teams the oddsmakers view as having improved their chances in the early offseason. We'll look at the future book list and then try to find some value bets at the current prices.
Here is the full list of future book odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
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</tbody></aside>On the night of New England's 28-24 Super Bowl win over Seattle, when we posted our best bets for Super Bowl 50 column, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had the Seahawks as the 5-1 favorite to win next year's title game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, with the Patriots at 6-1 to repeat. Early money came in on the defending champion Patriots, and the two teams were 5-1 co-favorites for a few weeks before Seattle was raised to 6-1. That's where the odds sat on the eve of free agency on March 9.
Amid the flurry of free-agent activity the next day, the biggest news was that New Orleans was trading tight end Jimmy Graham to Seattle. The Seahawks were lowered back to 5-1 co-favorites, and then over the next few days, the Patriots were raised to 6-1, having already announced they weren't going to re-sign Vince Wilfork and then also losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Brownerfrom the defense. That's where the odds still sit on the Seahawks and Patriots, with the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts right behind at 7-1.
Despite a lot of player movement, most team's odds stayed around the same, as teams lose players but gain others. For instance, it looked like Philadelphia was having a fire sale when it traded LeSean McCoy to Buffalo and lost Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City, but the Eagles then signed DeMarco Murray; their odds were only adjusted from 20-1 to 18-1. Detroit's odds went from 20-1 to 25-1 after losing Ndamukong Suh to Miami, but the Dolphins have held steady at 30-1 despite adding the defensive tackle. The Jets were 100-1 after firing Rex Ryan as head coach and hiring former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, but their odds have been lowered to 40-1 since signing Revis and Antonio Cromartie(also from Arizona) and trading for WR Brandon Marshall.
Super Bowl 50 best bets (then and now):
In that Feb. 1 piece, I went with the Pittsburgh Steelers as my best value bet at 20-1 (and my official "pick" after having the Seahawks at 12-1 two years ago but then missing horribly with the Saints last year -- but, hey, 12-1 makes up for a lot of misses) while Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com made cases for theHouston Texans at 30-1 and Minnesota Vikings at 50-1. Sal Selvaggio ofmadduxsports.com opted for the Miami Dolphins at 30-1.
Fast forward to April 1 and I still love my Steelers pick, even more as they're now 25-1. They were conspicuously quiet during free agency -- only signing DeAngelo Williams to back up Le'Veon Bell (and fill in for him when he likely serves a suspension for his DUI last August) -- and the biggest news being Ben Roethlisberger's contract extension. But I take that as a good sign as they're not far away from competing for the top and focus on re-signing core players.
Selvaggio still likes his Dolphins pick at 30-1, which was made before the Suh signing and is still available at the same odds, but said he would no longer recommend the 49ers (a passing mention he made), considering the offseason they've had.
Rynning said he is backing off his previous suggestions of Houston and Minnesota, especially the Vikings, if they lose Adrian Peterson. Rynning does, however, have a new team he's recommending ...
Erin Rynning's take: Indianapolis Colts (7-1 or better)
Indianapolis general manager Ryan Grigson has taken his team's embarrassing 45-7 loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game to heart. No question, this was a young team on the rise built around standout quarterback Andrew Luck. Now Grigson has added veteran free-agent pieces to their young talent to make the Colts a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The key piece in free agency for the Colts is the addition of wide receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson finally has an outstanding quarterback to get him the football, while the Colts have numerous offensive weapons to take the coverage pressure off the All-Pro performer. In addition, the Colts added Frank Gore and Todd Herremans to their offense. On defense, the Colts made a splash by inking Trent Cole, and they'll also have a returning Robert Mathis to strengthen a weakened pass rush from last season. While still making their home in the weak AFC South, the Colts will be able to build their record for a real shot at home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Dave Tuley's take: Arizona Cardinals (25-1)
While I'm sticking with the Steelers as my official pick, I like to have a rooting interest in each conference. Like Rynning's pick above, the Cardinals were unceremoniously eliminated in the playoffs, losing 27-16 to Carolina. But while most people viewed Arizona as a laughingstock for only compiling an NFL playoff record-low 78 yards and losing by double digits, I see it as a positive that they weren't blown out by 30 or 40 points. We all know the Cardinals were down to their third-string quarterback and had injuries up and down the lineup. Yet, they still led 14-13 at halftime and were within a touchdown until Ted Ginn Jr. fumbled a punt to set up the Panthers with an insurance touchdown.
Now Carson Palmer is back at QB with all of his same weapons. They lost two offensive linemen in free agency but replaced them with center A.Q. Shipleyfrom Indy and left guard Mike Iupati. The defense has some new faces but should be among the league's best units again. We'll have to wait to see the schedule, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals get off to another strong start, down to single digits and among the favorites again in the future book.
Dave Tuley, ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- March Madness took on a whole different meaning earlier this month.
Five days before Selection Sunday, and a full week before the NCAA tournament tipped off, the NFL's free-agent signing period commenced on March 10. The action was as fast and furious as anything seen on the hardwood. It's now three weeks later and most of the dust has settled, so it's a good time to update the Super Bowl future-book odds and see which teams the oddsmakers view as having improved their chances in the early offseason. We'll look at the future book list and then try to find some value bets at the current prices.
Here is the full list of future book odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:
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| TEAM | FEB. 1 | MARCH 9 | MARCH 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-1 | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| New England Patriots | 6-1 | 5-1 | 6-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 7-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 12-1 | 10-1 | 7-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 8-1 | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 14-1 | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20-1 | 20-1 | 18-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 25-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 25-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Houston Texans | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| St. Louis Rams | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| New York Giants | 30-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| New York Jets | 100-1 | 100-1 | 40-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 50-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 25-1 | 25-1 | 40-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 25-1 | 25-1 | 40-1 |
| Chicago Bears | 50-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 50-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 60-1 | 80-1 | 80-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 300-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 200-1 | 200-1 | 150-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 300-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 300-1 | 300-1 | 200-1 |
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Amid the flurry of free-agent activity the next day, the biggest news was that New Orleans was trading tight end Jimmy Graham to Seattle. The Seahawks were lowered back to 5-1 co-favorites, and then over the next few days, the Patriots were raised to 6-1, having already announced they weren't going to re-sign Vince Wilfork and then also losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Brownerfrom the defense. That's where the odds still sit on the Seahawks and Patriots, with the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts right behind at 7-1.
Despite a lot of player movement, most team's odds stayed around the same, as teams lose players but gain others. For instance, it looked like Philadelphia was having a fire sale when it traded LeSean McCoy to Buffalo and lost Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City, but the Eagles then signed DeMarco Murray; their odds were only adjusted from 20-1 to 18-1. Detroit's odds went from 20-1 to 25-1 after losing Ndamukong Suh to Miami, but the Dolphins have held steady at 30-1 despite adding the defensive tackle. The Jets were 100-1 after firing Rex Ryan as head coach and hiring former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, but their odds have been lowered to 40-1 since signing Revis and Antonio Cromartie(also from Arizona) and trading for WR Brandon Marshall.
Super Bowl 50 best bets (then and now):
In that Feb. 1 piece, I went with the Pittsburgh Steelers as my best value bet at 20-1 (and my official "pick" after having the Seahawks at 12-1 two years ago but then missing horribly with the Saints last year -- but, hey, 12-1 makes up for a lot of misses) while Erin Rynning of sportsmemo.com made cases for theHouston Texans at 30-1 and Minnesota Vikings at 50-1. Sal Selvaggio ofmadduxsports.com opted for the Miami Dolphins at 30-1.
Fast forward to April 1 and I still love my Steelers pick, even more as they're now 25-1. They were conspicuously quiet during free agency -- only signing DeAngelo Williams to back up Le'Veon Bell (and fill in for him when he likely serves a suspension for his DUI last August) -- and the biggest news being Ben Roethlisberger's contract extension. But I take that as a good sign as they're not far away from competing for the top and focus on re-signing core players.
Selvaggio still likes his Dolphins pick at 30-1, which was made before the Suh signing and is still available at the same odds, but said he would no longer recommend the 49ers (a passing mention he made), considering the offseason they've had.
Rynning said he is backing off his previous suggestions of Houston and Minnesota, especially the Vikings, if they lose Adrian Peterson. Rynning does, however, have a new team he's recommending ...
Erin Rynning's take: Indianapolis Colts (7-1 or better)
Indianapolis general manager Ryan Grigson has taken his team's embarrassing 45-7 loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game to heart. No question, this was a young team on the rise built around standout quarterback Andrew Luck. Now Grigson has added veteran free-agent pieces to their young talent to make the Colts a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The key piece in free agency for the Colts is the addition of wide receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson finally has an outstanding quarterback to get him the football, while the Colts have numerous offensive weapons to take the coverage pressure off the All-Pro performer. In addition, the Colts added Frank Gore and Todd Herremans to their offense. On defense, the Colts made a splash by inking Trent Cole, and they'll also have a returning Robert Mathis to strengthen a weakened pass rush from last season. While still making their home in the weak AFC South, the Colts will be able to build their record for a real shot at home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Dave Tuley's take: Arizona Cardinals (25-1)
While I'm sticking with the Steelers as my official pick, I like to have a rooting interest in each conference. Like Rynning's pick above, the Cardinals were unceremoniously eliminated in the playoffs, losing 27-16 to Carolina. But while most people viewed Arizona as a laughingstock for only compiling an NFL playoff record-low 78 yards and losing by double digits, I see it as a positive that they weren't blown out by 30 or 40 points. We all know the Cardinals were down to their third-string quarterback and had injuries up and down the lineup. Yet, they still led 14-13 at halftime and were within a touchdown until Ted Ginn Jr. fumbled a punt to set up the Panthers with an insurance touchdown.
Now Carson Palmer is back at QB with all of his same weapons. They lost two offensive linemen in free agency but replaced them with center A.Q. Shipleyfrom Indy and left guard Mike Iupati. The defense has some new faces but should be among the league's best units again. We'll have to wait to see the schedule, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals get off to another strong start, down to single digits and among the favorites again in the future book.
