Best CFB Week 2 bets
CFB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
After an exciting opening weekend of college football, our experts are back with their Week 2 picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and then as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file, for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 2 of the college football season.
Last Week ATS:
Phil Steele: 2-6
Stanford Steve Coughlin: 3-1-1
Chris Fallica: 7-3
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-7)
Steele: Last year, a young Ohio State team played its best game of the season in a 45-24 win at Oklahoma with a 443-403 yard edge. Ohio State was the least experienced team in the nation entering the season last year, but it has 15 returning starters and ranks No. 38 on my experience chart this year. This is a great matchup of Ohio State's No. 2 defensive line and Oklahoma's No. 1 offensive line - not to mention the dueling pair of Heisman-contending quarterbacks. This is the first big game for Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley, while Urban Meyer is 19-7 against top-10 teams in his career.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 28
Fallica: Baker Mayfield had his way with one of the worst teams in the country last week, but I expect this game to be much different. Although the OU offensive line is expected to be one of the better ones in the country, it will have its work cut out for it against an Ohio State defense that should be ready to roll at home under the lights. Running on the Buckeyes will be nowhere near as easy as running on UTEP was a week ago, and though Indiana had some success throwing in the first two-and-a-half quarters or so against Ohio State, the OU receiving corps is inexperienced outside of tight end Mark Andrews. Oklahoma suffered a pretty big loss in the secondary, and that will help the Ohio State passing game. Although the Buckeyes didn't complete a lot of deep throws, they did give Parris Campbell and others chances to make plays. It is also clear that J.K. Dobbins is a difference-maker at running back. I don't think it will be as easy as last year's 45-24 rout, but I'll still side with the Buckeyes here.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 28
Coughlin: Last year's game, in which Ohio State went into Norman and embarrassed the Sooners in front of their home crowd, will be thoroughly discussed this week. But you could make the case that the Sooners were a better team at the end of the season. Does any of that stuff matter this Saturday in Columbus? We will have to wait and see. What I do expect is OU's rookie head coach, Lincoln Riley, to have a very good game on the offensive side attacking the Buckeyes' defense. This is a huge spot for Riley, knowing what happened last season and knowing how good of an impression he can make on his fan base in what would be the best road win of this early season. Sooner QB Baker Mayfield feasted on inferior competition last week, lighting up the UTEP Miners for 329 yards and three touchdowns on 19-of-20 passing in just one half of football. The issue for the Sooners is their defense, as you can expect a way more polished offense from the Buckeyes. Expect more of what you saw in the second half in Bloomington rather than the first half from J.T. Barrett and his supporting cast. However, I do feel that the Sooners will keep the game close before ultimately losing in the fourth quarter.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 30
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal at No. 6 USC Trojans (-6.5)
Steele: Stanford has won seven of the past nine in the series, including last season's matchup. The Cardinal have 16 returning starters and are No. 49 on my experience chart, while USC has just 12 returning starters and is No. 72. These were two of the hottest teams at the end of last season, with USC winning its last eight and Stanford winning its last six. USC struggled more than the final score indicated against Western Michigan last week, leading by only four with four minutes left. Western Michigan ran for 263 yards and 5.5 yards per carry, so Stanford shouldn't have any trouble on the ground.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: USC 27, Stanford 24
Fallica: This is one of the bigger differences of the week between our FPI numbers and the Vegas spread, as FPI has the Cardinal a 3.5-point favorite here. I'd feel much more confident if USC had blown out Western Michigan, driving this number down and priming the Trojans for a better performance. But the Cardinal were my pick to win the Pac-12, so I can't pass up the opportunity to take what I deem to be a better team getting nearly seven points. Sam Darnold wasn't at his best in the opener, and his offense now faces a much better and much more physical defense than it did last week. If the Broncos ran for 263 yards and 5.5 yards per carry against Southern Cal last week, Bryce Love and Cameron Scarlett could have a lot of success on the ground. Stanford has won seven of nine in the series, and the two losses each came by a field goal. With extra rest following the trip to Australia, David Shaw and staff should have a solid game plan to attack USC and slow down Darnold.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 34, USC 27
Coughlin: Plenty has been said about the effort of USC last week in its win over Western Michigan: "They were going through the motions" and "They were looking ahead to Stanford" or "They looked uninspired." Well, I'm here to tell you that after watching almost every snap of that game, I came away really impressed with the team from Kalamazoo, Michigan. The Broncos are a tough, versatile team that was in a tie game at the Coliseum in the fourth quarter. I think the USC win last week was more impressive than many perceived it to be from just seeing the score. On the other side, people could not be more impressed with the effort of Stanford in its game in Australia against Rice. There cannot be teams worse than the Owls, after seeing how they performed. I'm still not a believer in the Stanford offense, mostly because it hasn't seen even close to an average defense since QB Keller Chryst took over last season, beating teams such as Oregon State, Rice, Oregon, Cal and Arizona. The Trojans will be fired up, and the Coliseum will be rocking on Saturday night. I expect a huge game from Sam Darnold and my most underrated running back in the country, Ronald Jones (159 rush yards and three touchdowns last week). I'm not sure the Cardinal are ready for this stage. Men of Troy prevail and cover.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Stanford 20
Friday games
Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights (-2.5)
Coughlin: The last time these two teams played was in 2013, and there were NFL first-round quarterbacks squaring off in Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch. UCF won that game, but a lot has changed since then, including both head coaches no longer being at the schools. This game has been moved up to Friday night due to Hurricane Irma, and I do think that is a factor in this game. UCF played last Thursday night, so they have had more time to prepare than the Tigers, who played on Friday night. Plus, the Golden Knights will be at home. Many thought Memphis would be the biggest threat to USF in the American Athletic Conference during the preseason, but I think this is a chance for UCF to show why it might be the best team in the league. I could not be more impressed with how polished the offense looked behind true sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns, and I could not be more sold on what the new UCF coaching staff has transformed this program into. I think the home team makes a statement and covers the points.
ATS pick: UCF
Score: UCF 41, Memphis 28
Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-4)
Fallica: Expect Purdue to be heavily backed here off the close call versus Louisville. The Boilermakers appear on their way to being improved with Jeff Brohm, Tony Levine and Nick Holt. This will be just the second time in the past 35 games that Purdue is favored, with the other being a 10-point win last season over Nevada after coming in as a 3.5-point favorite. I'd be a little hesitant in laying points here, though, as a dive inside the box score from last week shows that Purdue was outgained by 180 yards and committed four turnovers. Louisville really hurt itself with three lost fumbles, and there is no guarantee that "turnover luck" will continue. Purdue lost at home to MAC teams in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (didn't play a MAC team last year), while the Bobcats have been pesky underdogs against Power 5 teams the past two seasons, losing by nine points to Tennessee as 27.5-point 'dogs and beating Kansas by 16 as 2.5-point 'dogs last season, along with losing by a field goal at Minnesota in 2015 as 7.5-point underdogs. Ohio has one of the better defenses in the MAC, especially in the secondary, and Frank Solich has an experienced group overall, one that might be the MAC favorite this year. Take the points, as well as a small stab on the money line.
ATS pick: Ohio
Score: Ohio 28, Purdue 27
Saturday games
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at No. 10 Florida State Seminoles (-32)
Steele: This is a huge sandwich game for Florida State, as the Seminoles just had their titanic opener against Alabama and have Miami on deck. Florida State was playing Alabama even but had four turnovers in five plays after a blocked punt, fumbled kickoff and back-to-back interceptions. I projected that Alabama would average 526 yards per game, and the Seminoles held them to 269 yards and 13 first downs. They just need to get talented true freshman James Blackman up to speed and confident. In its first season under Matt Viator last year, ULM lost to Oklahoma by 42 and Auburn by 51. With the Seminoles off a loss and urgent to get the offense rolling, I like Florida State here.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 49, ULM 7
San Diego State Aztecs at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5)
Steele: Arizona State is 10-0-1 in this series, including a 34-13 win in the last meeting in 2007. The Aztecs are 3-21 in road openers, with all the wins against non-Power 5 schools. San Diego State is just 3-9 in nonconference away games under head coach Long, who uses these games to get ready for conference play. The Sun Devils are No. 54 on my experience chart and have added some solid junior college transfers, while San Diego State is just No. 115 on my experience chart. In 2015, the Aztecs won 11 games but lost 35-7 on the road to California in an early nonconference game. This game is far more important to Arizona State, and the Sun Devils were much more impressive than the 37-31 final score last week, as they allowed 225 yards and 18 points after leading 37-13 with nine minutes remaining.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 35, San Diego State 24
Toledo Rockets (-10) at Nevada Wolf Pack
Steele: Toledo is just 4-10 in road openers, and that record drops to 2-9 against non-MAC opponents. Additionally, Toledo is 1-7 in Mountain and Pacific time zones since 1996, with the lone win coming at Wyoming in 2012. Nevada made my most-improved teams list. I like the starters for Nevada, and the team's lack of depth won't affect them early in the year. Plus, the Wolf Pack have the edge on defense.
ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Toledo 33, Nevada 30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles (-1.5)
Steele: Boston College is 7-3 in this series. This should be a lower-scoring game, as Boston College has my No. 24-rated defense and Wake Forest has my No. 41-rated unit. The past seven meetings have all gone under the Las Vegas total, with the combined score being 33.1 points per game. Eagles redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Brown won the starting job and showed moxie last week, throwing the game-winning touchdown pass with less than three minutes to play. Wake Forest is just 1-7 in road openers.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Boston College 23, Wake Forest 17
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Syracuse Orange (-9.5)
Steele: This is the first meeting between these schools. Middle Tennessee is just 3-19 in road openers and has dropped four straight games against Power 5 schools by 20 points per game the past four seasons. Syracuse is in its second season under head coach Dino Babers, and after drastic changes on both offense and defense last year, the Orange have 19 returning starters and are No. 24 on my experience chart. The Orange will be focused coming off an FCS matchup last week and with only Central Michigan on deck. Middle Tennessee has my No. 122-rated defense and comes in off a 22-point loss to Vanderbilt last week after being outgained 367-215.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Syracuse 44, Middle Tennessee 30
Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-43.5)
Fallica: This is all about the circumstances of the game, as the Tide have a huge come-down from the season opener against Florida State. Under Nick Saban, Alabama has covered versus a Power 5 team in the opener six previous times, but the Tide failed to cover in the following game in all six instances, five of which came against Group of 5 teams with the Tide favorites of at least 28 points. Fresno State might have lost 13 straight against FBS foes, but they managed to cover seven of their past nine games last season as underdogs. New coach Jeff Tedford has a bunch of starters back on offense, and the Bulldogs should be good for a garbage time score to keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Fresno State
Score: Alabama 45, Fresno State 7
UAB Blazers at Ball State Cardinals (-14.5)
Fallica: Our numbers have Ball State as a nine-point pick in this one. After a close call versus Illinois last week, I wonder if the Cardinals might be a little flat after seeing their upset bid come up just short. This isn't a team used to being in the role of double-digit favorites; in the past three years, Ball State has been a double-digit favorite just three times and hasn't covered any of them. The Cardinals should win, but I expect the Blazers to keep it within the number.
ATS pick: UAB
Score: Ball State 30, UAB 20
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) at Iowa State Cyclones
Fallica: I was in on Iowa last week, as I thought the Hawkeyes could control the line of scrimmage versus their Mountain West foes. They did, but they were very sloppy with the football, and quarterback Nathan Stanley was under more pressure than one would have expected. Iowa State will likely be a much more balanced offense and a tougher task to slow than Wyoming. The Hawkeyes beat Matt Campbell's team 45-3 last season in Campbell's first season in Ames, and I expect payback to be on the Cyclones' minds. Iowa State was a very good underdog as the season progressed, covering four games as double-digit 'dogs versus Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Three of those four losses were by a touchdown or less, with ISU having a real shot to win. With improvement expected in year two under Campbell, it is reasonable to expect Iowa State to have a chance to win as a slight home 'dog, Remember, in 2015 when the Cyclones were 3-9 and some people thought Iowa was in the mix for a CFP shot, this game was tied at 17 with about two minutes remaining before Iowa scored two late touchdowns for a very deceiving 31-17 final.
ATS pick: Iowa State
Score: Iowa State 28, Iowa 24
Northwestern Wildcats (-3) at Duke Blue Devils
Coughlin: Northwestern had to come from behind to win its first game, while Duke scored 60 points and gave up only seven. Perhaps the Wildcats thought a little too much of themselves coming into this season, as many picked them as possible participants in the Big 10 title game, and thought they could coast to a win in their first game. They trailed at the half to Nevada by 10 points, all the while being 24-point favorites. Still, there is plenty to like about this Northwestern team, with a veteran quarterback in Clayton Thorson, who is fresh off a 352-yard effort through the air with two touchdowns and two rushing scores. Alongside him is running back Justin Jackson, who just became 15th on the Big Ten's career rushing list with 4,238 yards. Jackson is the second active leading rusher in FBS behind only Oregon's Royce Freeman (4,296), and he leads all active FBS players with 885 career carries. I'll go with the notion that the Wildcats have found their stride and have too much offense for the Blue Devils to handle.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 31, Duke 21
No. 23 TCU Horned Frogs (-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks
Coughlin: This might be the best matchup of the day before the night slate's ranked-on-ranked contests get underway. Last year, Arkansas won in Fort Worth in double-overtime 41-38. As plenty of you know, these two head coaches, Bret Bielema and Gary Patterson, are easily two of my favorite head coaches in the sport. Both do a great job getting their teams ready to play in tough atmospheres and instilling their teams with what it takes to overcome adversity, as seen by the Razorbacks' coming from behind in this game last season. It wasn't the best week for college football teams in the great state of Texas, leaving Hurricane Harvey out of it, with Texas, Texas A&M and Baylor all suffering tough losses. The Horned Frogs took care of business, dominating Jackson State and giving up not much more than 1 yard per play. Knowing this week will be a lot tougher, I think Gary Patterson has this team in a spot to open a lot of eyes, as long as QB Kenny Hill takes care of the football (13 INTs last season). I like the balance of TCU better than Arkansas, and I expect the boys from Fort Worth to go on the road and cover.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 30, Arkansas 21
CFB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/7/17
After an exciting opening weekend of college football, our experts are back with their Week 2 picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Stanford Steve and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and then as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file, for your perusing pleasure.
Here are the best bets for Week 2 of the college football season.
Last Week ATS:
Phil Steele: 2-6
Stanford Steve Coughlin: 3-1-1
Chris Fallica: 7-3
Note: Lines from Westgate SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Common games
No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-7)
Steele: Last year, a young Ohio State team played its best game of the season in a 45-24 win at Oklahoma with a 443-403 yard edge. Ohio State was the least experienced team in the nation entering the season last year, but it has 15 returning starters and ranks No. 38 on my experience chart this year. This is a great matchup of Ohio State's No. 2 defensive line and Oklahoma's No. 1 offensive line - not to mention the dueling pair of Heisman-contending quarterbacks. This is the first big game for Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley, while Urban Meyer is 19-7 against top-10 teams in his career.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 28
Fallica: Baker Mayfield had his way with one of the worst teams in the country last week, but I expect this game to be much different. Although the OU offensive line is expected to be one of the better ones in the country, it will have its work cut out for it against an Ohio State defense that should be ready to roll at home under the lights. Running on the Buckeyes will be nowhere near as easy as running on UTEP was a week ago, and though Indiana had some success throwing in the first two-and-a-half quarters or so against Ohio State, the OU receiving corps is inexperienced outside of tight end Mark Andrews. Oklahoma suffered a pretty big loss in the secondary, and that will help the Ohio State passing game. Although the Buckeyes didn't complete a lot of deep throws, they did give Parris Campbell and others chances to make plays. It is also clear that J.K. Dobbins is a difference-maker at running back. I don't think it will be as easy as last year's 45-24 rout, but I'll still side with the Buckeyes here.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 38, Oklahoma 28
Coughlin: Last year's game, in which Ohio State went into Norman and embarrassed the Sooners in front of their home crowd, will be thoroughly discussed this week. But you could make the case that the Sooners were a better team at the end of the season. Does any of that stuff matter this Saturday in Columbus? We will have to wait and see. What I do expect is OU's rookie head coach, Lincoln Riley, to have a very good game on the offensive side attacking the Buckeyes' defense. This is a huge spot for Riley, knowing what happened last season and knowing how good of an impression he can make on his fan base in what would be the best road win of this early season. Sooner QB Baker Mayfield feasted on inferior competition last week, lighting up the UTEP Miners for 329 yards and three touchdowns on 19-of-20 passing in just one half of football. The issue for the Sooners is their defense, as you can expect a way more polished offense from the Buckeyes. Expect more of what you saw in the second half in Bloomington rather than the first half from J.T. Barrett and his supporting cast. However, I do feel that the Sooners will keep the game close before ultimately losing in the fourth quarter.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 30
No. 14 Stanford Cardinal at No. 6 USC Trojans (-6.5)
Steele: Stanford has won seven of the past nine in the series, including last season's matchup. The Cardinal have 16 returning starters and are No. 49 on my experience chart, while USC has just 12 returning starters and is No. 72. These were two of the hottest teams at the end of last season, with USC winning its last eight and Stanford winning its last six. USC struggled more than the final score indicated against Western Michigan last week, leading by only four with four minutes left. Western Michigan ran for 263 yards and 5.5 yards per carry, so Stanford shouldn't have any trouble on the ground.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: USC 27, Stanford 24
Fallica: This is one of the bigger differences of the week between our FPI numbers and the Vegas spread, as FPI has the Cardinal a 3.5-point favorite here. I'd feel much more confident if USC had blown out Western Michigan, driving this number down and priming the Trojans for a better performance. But the Cardinal were my pick to win the Pac-12, so I can't pass up the opportunity to take what I deem to be a better team getting nearly seven points. Sam Darnold wasn't at his best in the opener, and his offense now faces a much better and much more physical defense than it did last week. If the Broncos ran for 263 yards and 5.5 yards per carry against Southern Cal last week, Bryce Love and Cameron Scarlett could have a lot of success on the ground. Stanford has won seven of nine in the series, and the two losses each came by a field goal. With extra rest following the trip to Australia, David Shaw and staff should have a solid game plan to attack USC and slow down Darnold.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 34, USC 27
Coughlin: Plenty has been said about the effort of USC last week in its win over Western Michigan: "They were going through the motions" and "They were looking ahead to Stanford" or "They looked uninspired." Well, I'm here to tell you that after watching almost every snap of that game, I came away really impressed with the team from Kalamazoo, Michigan. The Broncos are a tough, versatile team that was in a tie game at the Coliseum in the fourth quarter. I think the USC win last week was more impressive than many perceived it to be from just seeing the score. On the other side, people could not be more impressed with the effort of Stanford in its game in Australia against Rice. There cannot be teams worse than the Owls, after seeing how they performed. I'm still not a believer in the Stanford offense, mostly because it hasn't seen even close to an average defense since QB Keller Chryst took over last season, beating teams such as Oregon State, Rice, Oregon, Cal and Arizona. The Trojans will be fired up, and the Coliseum will be rocking on Saturday night. I expect a huge game from Sam Darnold and my most underrated running back in the country, Ronald Jones (159 rush yards and three touchdowns last week). I'm not sure the Cardinal are ready for this stage. Men of Troy prevail and cover.
ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Stanford 20
Friday games
Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights (-2.5)
Coughlin: The last time these two teams played was in 2013, and there were NFL first-round quarterbacks squaring off in Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch. UCF won that game, but a lot has changed since then, including both head coaches no longer being at the schools. This game has been moved up to Friday night due to Hurricane Irma, and I do think that is a factor in this game. UCF played last Thursday night, so they have had more time to prepare than the Tigers, who played on Friday night. Plus, the Golden Knights will be at home. Many thought Memphis would be the biggest threat to USF in the American Athletic Conference during the preseason, but I think this is a chance for UCF to show why it might be the best team in the league. I could not be more impressed with how polished the offense looked behind true sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who threw for 360 yards and four touchdowns, and I could not be more sold on what the new UCF coaching staff has transformed this program into. I think the home team makes a statement and covers the points.
ATS pick: UCF
Score: UCF 41, Memphis 28
Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-4)
Fallica: Expect Purdue to be heavily backed here off the close call versus Louisville. The Boilermakers appear on their way to being improved with Jeff Brohm, Tony Levine and Nick Holt. This will be just the second time in the past 35 games that Purdue is favored, with the other being a 10-point win last season over Nevada after coming in as a 3.5-point favorite. I'd be a little hesitant in laying points here, though, as a dive inside the box score from last week shows that Purdue was outgained by 180 yards and committed four turnovers. Louisville really hurt itself with three lost fumbles, and there is no guarantee that "turnover luck" will continue. Purdue lost at home to MAC teams in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (didn't play a MAC team last year), while the Bobcats have been pesky underdogs against Power 5 teams the past two seasons, losing by nine points to Tennessee as 27.5-point 'dogs and beating Kansas by 16 as 2.5-point 'dogs last season, along with losing by a field goal at Minnesota in 2015 as 7.5-point underdogs. Ohio has one of the better defenses in the MAC, especially in the secondary, and Frank Solich has an experienced group overall, one that might be the MAC favorite this year. Take the points, as well as a small stab on the money line.
ATS pick: Ohio
Score: Ohio 28, Purdue 27
Saturday games
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at No. 10 Florida State Seminoles (-32)
Steele: This is a huge sandwich game for Florida State, as the Seminoles just had their titanic opener against Alabama and have Miami on deck. Florida State was playing Alabama even but had four turnovers in five plays after a blocked punt, fumbled kickoff and back-to-back interceptions. I projected that Alabama would average 526 yards per game, and the Seminoles held them to 269 yards and 13 first downs. They just need to get talented true freshman James Blackman up to speed and confident. In its first season under Matt Viator last year, ULM lost to Oklahoma by 42 and Auburn by 51. With the Seminoles off a loss and urgent to get the offense rolling, I like Florida State here.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 49, ULM 7
San Diego State Aztecs at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3.5)
Steele: Arizona State is 10-0-1 in this series, including a 34-13 win in the last meeting in 2007. The Aztecs are 3-21 in road openers, with all the wins against non-Power 5 schools. San Diego State is just 3-9 in nonconference away games under head coach Long, who uses these games to get ready for conference play. The Sun Devils are No. 54 on my experience chart and have added some solid junior college transfers, while San Diego State is just No. 115 on my experience chart. In 2015, the Aztecs won 11 games but lost 35-7 on the road to California in an early nonconference game. This game is far more important to Arizona State, and the Sun Devils were much more impressive than the 37-31 final score last week, as they allowed 225 yards and 18 points after leading 37-13 with nine minutes remaining.
ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 35, San Diego State 24
Toledo Rockets (-10) at Nevada Wolf Pack
Steele: Toledo is just 4-10 in road openers, and that record drops to 2-9 against non-MAC opponents. Additionally, Toledo is 1-7 in Mountain and Pacific time zones since 1996, with the lone win coming at Wyoming in 2012. Nevada made my most-improved teams list. I like the starters for Nevada, and the team's lack of depth won't affect them early in the year. Plus, the Wolf Pack have the edge on defense.
ATS pick: Nevada
Score: Toledo 33, Nevada 30
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles (-1.5)
Steele: Boston College is 7-3 in this series. This should be a lower-scoring game, as Boston College has my No. 24-rated defense and Wake Forest has my No. 41-rated unit. The past seven meetings have all gone under the Las Vegas total, with the combined score being 33.1 points per game. Eagles redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Brown won the starting job and showed moxie last week, throwing the game-winning touchdown pass with less than three minutes to play. Wake Forest is just 1-7 in road openers.
ATS pick: Boston College
Score: Boston College 23, Wake Forest 17
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Syracuse Orange (-9.5)
Steele: This is the first meeting between these schools. Middle Tennessee is just 3-19 in road openers and has dropped four straight games against Power 5 schools by 20 points per game the past four seasons. Syracuse is in its second season under head coach Dino Babers, and after drastic changes on both offense and defense last year, the Orange have 19 returning starters and are No. 24 on my experience chart. The Orange will be focused coming off an FCS matchup last week and with only Central Michigan on deck. Middle Tennessee has my No. 122-rated defense and comes in off a 22-point loss to Vanderbilt last week after being outgained 367-215.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Syracuse 44, Middle Tennessee 30
Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-43.5)
Fallica: This is all about the circumstances of the game, as the Tide have a huge come-down from the season opener against Florida State. Under Nick Saban, Alabama has covered versus a Power 5 team in the opener six previous times, but the Tide failed to cover in the following game in all six instances, five of which came against Group of 5 teams with the Tide favorites of at least 28 points. Fresno State might have lost 13 straight against FBS foes, but they managed to cover seven of their past nine games last season as underdogs. New coach Jeff Tedford has a bunch of starters back on offense, and the Bulldogs should be good for a garbage time score to keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Fresno State
Score: Alabama 45, Fresno State 7
UAB Blazers at Ball State Cardinals (-14.5)
Fallica: Our numbers have Ball State as a nine-point pick in this one. After a close call versus Illinois last week, I wonder if the Cardinals might be a little flat after seeing their upset bid come up just short. This isn't a team used to being in the role of double-digit favorites; in the past three years, Ball State has been a double-digit favorite just three times and hasn't covered any of them. The Cardinals should win, but I expect the Blazers to keep it within the number.
ATS pick: UAB
Score: Ball State 30, UAB 20
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) at Iowa State Cyclones
Fallica: I was in on Iowa last week, as I thought the Hawkeyes could control the line of scrimmage versus their Mountain West foes. They did, but they were very sloppy with the football, and quarterback Nathan Stanley was under more pressure than one would have expected. Iowa State will likely be a much more balanced offense and a tougher task to slow than Wyoming. The Hawkeyes beat Matt Campbell's team 45-3 last season in Campbell's first season in Ames, and I expect payback to be on the Cyclones' minds. Iowa State was a very good underdog as the season progressed, covering four games as double-digit 'dogs versus Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Three of those four losses were by a touchdown or less, with ISU having a real shot to win. With improvement expected in year two under Campbell, it is reasonable to expect Iowa State to have a chance to win as a slight home 'dog, Remember, in 2015 when the Cyclones were 3-9 and some people thought Iowa was in the mix for a CFP shot, this game was tied at 17 with about two minutes remaining before Iowa scored two late touchdowns for a very deceiving 31-17 final.
ATS pick: Iowa State
Score: Iowa State 28, Iowa 24
Northwestern Wildcats (-3) at Duke Blue Devils
Coughlin: Northwestern had to come from behind to win its first game, while Duke scored 60 points and gave up only seven. Perhaps the Wildcats thought a little too much of themselves coming into this season, as many picked them as possible participants in the Big 10 title game, and thought they could coast to a win in their first game. They trailed at the half to Nevada by 10 points, all the while being 24-point favorites. Still, there is plenty to like about this Northwestern team, with a veteran quarterback in Clayton Thorson, who is fresh off a 352-yard effort through the air with two touchdowns and two rushing scores. Alongside him is running back Justin Jackson, who just became 15th on the Big Ten's career rushing list with 4,238 yards. Jackson is the second active leading rusher in FBS behind only Oregon's Royce Freeman (4,296), and he leads all active FBS players with 885 career carries. I'll go with the notion that the Wildcats have found their stride and have too much offense for the Blue Devils to handle.
ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Northwestern 31, Duke 21
No. 23 TCU Horned Frogs (-3) at Arkansas Razorbacks
Coughlin: This might be the best matchup of the day before the night slate's ranked-on-ranked contests get underway. Last year, Arkansas won in Fort Worth in double-overtime 41-38. As plenty of you know, these two head coaches, Bret Bielema and Gary Patterson, are easily two of my favorite head coaches in the sport. Both do a great job getting their teams ready to play in tough atmospheres and instilling their teams with what it takes to overcome adversity, as seen by the Razorbacks' coming from behind in this game last season. It wasn't the best week for college football teams in the great state of Texas, leaving Hurricane Harvey out of it, with Texas, Texas A&M and Baylor all suffering tough losses. The Horned Frogs took care of business, dominating Jackson State and giving up not much more than 1 yard per play. Knowing this week will be a lot tougher, I think Gary Patterson has this team in a spot to open a lot of eyes, as long as QB Kenny Hill takes care of the football (13 INTs last season). I like the balance of TCU better than Arkansas, and I expect the boys from Fort Worth to go on the road and cover.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 30, Arkansas 21
