[h=1]Best 2015 Super Bowl value bets[/h][h=3]Two NFC North teams among top value bets for Super Bowl XLIX[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- The Seattle Seahawks hadn't even completed their 43-8 rout of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night and talk already had begun about whether Seattle would repeat.
The NFL Vegas Rankings, with our panelists Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, had the Seahawks and Broncos -- who met in the Super Bowl as the top seeds in each conference -- power-rated even down the stretch and into the playoffs. And now after the season is complete, we still have them tied along with the San Francisco 49ers heading into the offseason.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
That makes sense -- at least to us -- as even though the Seahawks rolled in the Super Bowl, the 49ers were impressive in three straight road playoff games and were pretty much a coin-flip decision in their loss at Seattle. A lot of oddsmakers also projected a Broncos-49ers Super Bowl would have been right around pick 'em, and a lot of people said the same about the Broncos-Seahawks matchup (though the Broncos got bet to favoritism).
The LVH SuperBook pretty much agrees with our rankings in their futures for next year's Super Bowl -- to be held at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Feb. 1, 2015 -- with the Seahawks and Broncos as the 5-1 co-favorites despite the lopsided result on Super Sunday, and the 49ers right behind them at 6-1. Before the game, the Broncos had been bet down to a 9-2 fave with the Seahawks and 49ers both at 6-1. But as we look to find next year's champion, that splitting of hairs is mostly trivial as those top teams with relatively low odds aren't where we're looking for in trying to find value in the future-book odds. Last year in this column, I pegged the Seahawks as the value play on the board at 12-1 and also took a look at the Colts, who made the playoffs.
Here are the best 2015 Super Bowl value bets, along with a final ranking of all 32 NFL teams. <OFFER><!-- begin inline 2 --></OFFER>[h=4]Season-Ending Vegas NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]
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<!-- end inline 2 -->"For the value bet, I'll go with the Packers at 16-1," Selvaggio said. "They were riddled with injuries all year long, but when healthy they were clearly one of the best teams. Green Bay's offense will likely be the best in the NFC. Stud left tackle Bryan Bulaga will be back, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson form a dangerous wideout core with young RB Eddie Lacy breaking out at season's end. The defense was really beat up, but is average with all the guys coming back. With a couple offseason moves on the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay could jump right back up to the team to beat in the stacked NFC."
Sevransky goes with another NFC North team, but offers a warning that one of this year's top contenders could rule the NFL in 2014 and 2015.
"Of the longer shots on the LVH future board, I'm most comfortable with Chicago at 30-1," Sevransky said. "But in my humble opinion, 2014 is San Fran's year. They're hungry and loaded!"
Sevransky gave his thoughts on a bunch of other teams.
"The obvious choices for dramatic improvements are Redskins, Packers, Giants, Texans, Falcons, Lions and probably the Steelers, too," he said. "I'm personally not sold on the Texans' chances for a 2014 turnaround, but they have to be on the list.
"It's too early to tell what top teams are likely to decline with free-agent losses, tougher schedule, etc., so I kept my power rating numbers fairly similar to where they were prior to the start of the playoffs. However, it's worth nothing that both K.C. and Philly played remarkably easy schedules this year. The Ravens, Lions and Packers did, too. I'm quite comfortable picking the Chiefs to decline in 2014."
Tuley's Take: I'll go with the Saints as my top value play at 18-1. While they're not the ready-made complete team that the Seahawks looked like a year ago, they're pretty close. An argument can be made that if they had held off the Panthers for the NFC South title, they would have had a better shot against the Seahawks with a first-round bye and an easier playoff game at home before having to go to Seattle. The Panthers, as much as I respect what they did this year, are a candidate to regress a little, and that helps the Saints' chances.
The other team I like is the Chargers at 30-1. They're solid and on the rise, with their main obstacle being the fact they're in the same division as the Broncos. However, if they can be more consistent and avoid playing down to their competition at times, they could replace the Chiefs as the team to challenge the Broncos in the AFC West.
I agree with Sevransky on several of his "obvious choices for dramatic improvement," but the knock against the Redskins, Texans and Lions is the fact they've hired new head coaches and that makes it more likely that they're the proverbial "year away." The only first-year head coaches to win Super Bowls were Don McCafferty with the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V and George Seifert with the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XXIV, but both were taking over proven championship-caliber teams. Even new Detroit coach Jim Caldwell doesn't have as good of a situation as he had when he inherited the Colts job (and quarterback Peyton Manning) in 2009, took them to Super Bowl XLIV and lost to the Saints.
If I had to take another team from that middle cluster of teams, it would be the Philadelphia Eagles (30-1), who were looking more like a complete team as Chip Kelly's first season concluded, or the Arizona Cardinals (30-1), who missed the playoffs despite 10 wins and are not too many players from closing the gap on the Seahawks and 49ers.
LAS VEGAS -- The Seattle Seahawks hadn't even completed their 43-8 rout of the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII on Sunday night and talk already had begun about whether Seattle would repeat.
The NFL Vegas Rankings, with our panelists Teddy "Covers" Sevransky, Sal Selvaggio of madduxsports.com and yours truly, Dave Tuley, had the Seahawks and Broncos -- who met in the Super Bowl as the top seeds in each conference -- power-rated even down the stretch and into the playoffs. And now after the season is complete, we still have them tied along with the San Francisco 49ers heading into the offseason.<!-- begin inline 1 --><!-- INLINE MODULE -->
That makes sense -- at least to us -- as even though the Seahawks rolled in the Super Bowl, the 49ers were impressive in three straight road playoff games and were pretty much a coin-flip decision in their loss at Seattle. A lot of oddsmakers also projected a Broncos-49ers Super Bowl would have been right around pick 'em, and a lot of people said the same about the Broncos-Seahawks matchup (though the Broncos got bet to favoritism).
The LVH SuperBook pretty much agrees with our rankings in their futures for next year's Super Bowl -- to be held at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Feb. 1, 2015 -- with the Seahawks and Broncos as the 5-1 co-favorites despite the lopsided result on Super Sunday, and the 49ers right behind them at 6-1. Before the game, the Broncos had been bet down to a 9-2 fave with the Seahawks and 49ers both at 6-1. But as we look to find next year's champion, that splitting of hairs is mostly trivial as those top teams with relatively low odds aren't where we're looking for in trying to find value in the future-book odds. Last year in this column, I pegged the Seahawks as the value play on the board at 12-1 and also took a look at the Colts, who made the playoffs.
Here are the best 2015 Super Bowl value bets, along with a final ranking of all 32 NFL teams. <OFFER><!-- begin inline 2 --></OFFER>[h=4]Season-Ending Vegas NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | SB XLIX Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
Note: Super Bowl XLIX futures from the LVH SuperBook (as of 8 p.m. PST Sunday, Feb. 2, 2014) | |||
| T-1 | Denver Broncos | 26 | 5-1 |
| T-1 | Seattle Seahawks | 26 | 5-1 |
| T-1 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 | 6-1 |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | 24 | 18-1 |
| 5 | Carolina Panthers | 23.5 | 20-1 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 23 | 7-1 |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 22.5 | 20-1 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | 30-1 |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 21.5 | 16-1 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 21 | 30-1 |
| T-11 | San Diego Chargers | 20.5 | 30-1 |
| T-11 | Chicago Bears | 20.5 | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Indianapolis Colts | 19.5 | 20-1 |
| T-13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 19.5 | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.5 | 30-1 |
| T-13 | Atlanta Falcons | 19.5 | 30-1 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 19 | 40-1 |
| T-18 | Dallas Cowboys | 18.5 | 30-1 |
| T-18 | Baltimore Ravens | 18.5 | 30-1 |
| T-20 | Washington Redskins | 18 | 40-1 |
| T-20 | Miami Dolphins | 18 | 50-1 |
| 22 | St. Louis Rams | 17.5 | 40-1 |
| T-23 | Houston Texans | 17 | 30-1 |
| T-23 | New York Giants | 17 | 40-1 |
| T-23 | Tennessee Titans | 17 | 60-1 |
| 26 | New York Jets | 16 | 60-1 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | 15.5 | 60-1 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15 | 60-1 |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns | 14.5 | 60-1 |
| 30 | Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 100-1 |
| 31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.5 | 200-1 |
| 32 | Oakland Raiders | 13 | 200-1 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->"For the value bet, I'll go with the Packers at 16-1," Selvaggio said. "They were riddled with injuries all year long, but when healthy they were clearly one of the best teams. Green Bay's offense will likely be the best in the NFC. Stud left tackle Bryan Bulaga will be back, Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson form a dangerous wideout core with young RB Eddie Lacy breaking out at season's end. The defense was really beat up, but is average with all the guys coming back. With a couple offseason moves on the defensive side of the ball, Green Bay could jump right back up to the team to beat in the stacked NFC."
Sevransky goes with another NFC North team, but offers a warning that one of this year's top contenders could rule the NFL in 2014 and 2015.
"Of the longer shots on the LVH future board, I'm most comfortable with Chicago at 30-1," Sevransky said. "But in my humble opinion, 2014 is San Fran's year. They're hungry and loaded!"
Sevransky gave his thoughts on a bunch of other teams.
"The obvious choices for dramatic improvements are Redskins, Packers, Giants, Texans, Falcons, Lions and probably the Steelers, too," he said. "I'm personally not sold on the Texans' chances for a 2014 turnaround, but they have to be on the list.
"It's too early to tell what top teams are likely to decline with free-agent losses, tougher schedule, etc., so I kept my power rating numbers fairly similar to where they were prior to the start of the playoffs. However, it's worth nothing that both K.C. and Philly played remarkably easy schedules this year. The Ravens, Lions and Packers did, too. I'm quite comfortable picking the Chiefs to decline in 2014."
Tuley's Take: I'll go with the Saints as my top value play at 18-1. While they're not the ready-made complete team that the Seahawks looked like a year ago, they're pretty close. An argument can be made that if they had held off the Panthers for the NFC South title, they would have had a better shot against the Seahawks with a first-round bye and an easier playoff game at home before having to go to Seattle. The Panthers, as much as I respect what they did this year, are a candidate to regress a little, and that helps the Saints' chances.
The other team I like is the Chargers at 30-1. They're solid and on the rise, with their main obstacle being the fact they're in the same division as the Broncos. However, if they can be more consistent and avoid playing down to their competition at times, they could replace the Chiefs as the team to challenge the Broncos in the AFC West.
I agree with Sevransky on several of his "obvious choices for dramatic improvement," but the knock against the Redskins, Texans and Lions is the fact they've hired new head coaches and that makes it more likely that they're the proverbial "year away." The only first-year head coaches to win Super Bowls were Don McCafferty with the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V and George Seifert with the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XXIV, but both were taking over proven championship-caliber teams. Even new Detroit coach Jim Caldwell doesn't have as good of a situation as he had when he inherited the Colts job (and quarterback Peyton Manning) in 2009, took them to Super Bowl XLIV and lost to the Saints.
If I had to take another team from that middle cluster of teams, it would be the Philadelphia Eagles (30-1), who were looking more like a complete team as Chip Kelly's first season concluded, or the Arizona Cardinals (30-1), who missed the playoffs despite 10 wins and are not too many players from closing the gap on the Seahawks and 49ers.
