Belterra 8-06-2017
Bounced back to a winning day yesterday with 5 of 8 wins and 4 cold exactas after a losing day Friday.
Big news was our posted fiddler won at 7:1.
FYI, more on fiddlers ...
Fiddle - (chiefly British terminology) "used to alter or falsify for dishonest gain", "cheating or swindling; a fraud".
What I consider Fiddlers are horses used for parimutuel manipulation swindles.
Some things to help identify fiddlers :
1) drastic speed figure fluctuations of 20 to 30 points with no apparent explanation. For example, BOBBY MAC's previous 9 figs were 65,63,91,55,48,94,76,91,61. To me, this is a binary pattern (on or off, try or no-try).
2) abnormal correlation of odds to efforts.
3) abnormal ROI numbers of trainer, trainer/jockey, and/or trainer/owner, trainer/owner/jockey. In this case, trainer ROI was 1.15 over last 2 years (400 entries), that is huge. Furthermore, it ramps up to 2.00+ when odds are over 4:1. Wouldn't you love to have a 2.00 ROI?
Handicapping showed any of BOBBY MAC's peaks would easily beat the field. That makes him a live fiddler. Class dismissed.
race #1 - 5.5f
#7 5-2 HONEY C
#2 6-1 LUSCIOUS LUCY
#4 20-1 CHIFA - bomb alert
race #2 - 8f turf
#4 15-1 JUDGE HUDSON
#6 5-1 FIGHTINGJOEWHEELER - wire-to-wire threat
#1 12-1 ALIBYTHEE - if ready
#5 30-1 COWBOY ZEKE - exotic booster
race #3 - 8f
... quite wide open.
#4 5-2 DISCREETLY FIRM
#8 6-1 HIDE THE SHINE - Katie bug
#5 12-1 BAY POINT COUNT
race #4 - 11f turf
#3 2-1 TIZ SARDONIC JOE
#2 7-2 NATIONAL DEFENCE
#1 3-1 TROUBLE X TWO
race #5 - 6.5f
... from the entries this looks like a 5f sprint, not 6 1/2.
#8 2-1 FAST KARMA
#7 10-1 FEDERAL AGENT
#2 7-2 SALTY RIM
race #6 - 6f
#7 7-2 ROYAL DEHERE
#1 4-1 ZARGAUX
#2 6-1 LEE'S LUCK
race #7 - 8.5f turf
#1 6-1 MAYAS QUEEN NEETEE
#9 5-2 SCHOOL BOARD PREZ - logical
#4 5-1 LA NINA BRONCA
race #8 - 8f
... very tough field of claimers.
#9 7-2 J.T.'S HEAT
#5 8-1 SQUEEZE THE KING
#4 6-1 TED'S FOLLY
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
Bounced back to a winning day yesterday with 5 of 8 wins and 4 cold exactas after a losing day Friday.
Big news was our posted fiddler won at 7:1.
FYI, more on fiddlers ...
Fiddle - (chiefly British terminology) "used to alter or falsify for dishonest gain", "cheating or swindling; a fraud".
What I consider Fiddlers are horses used for parimutuel manipulation swindles.
Some things to help identify fiddlers :
1) drastic speed figure fluctuations of 20 to 30 points with no apparent explanation. For example, BOBBY MAC's previous 9 figs were 65,63,91,55,48,94,76,91,61. To me, this is a binary pattern (on or off, try or no-try).
2) abnormal correlation of odds to efforts.
3) abnormal ROI numbers of trainer, trainer/jockey, and/or trainer/owner, trainer/owner/jockey. In this case, trainer ROI was 1.15 over last 2 years (400 entries), that is huge. Furthermore, it ramps up to 2.00+ when odds are over 4:1. Wouldn't you love to have a 2.00 ROI?
Handicapping showed any of BOBBY MAC's peaks would easily beat the field. That makes him a live fiddler. Class dismissed.
race #1 - 5.5f
#7 5-2 HONEY C
#2 6-1 LUSCIOUS LUCY
#4 20-1 CHIFA - bomb alert
race #2 - 8f turf
#4 15-1 JUDGE HUDSON
#6 5-1 FIGHTINGJOEWHEELER - wire-to-wire threat
#1 12-1 ALIBYTHEE - if ready
#5 30-1 COWBOY ZEKE - exotic booster
race #3 - 8f
... quite wide open.
#4 5-2 DISCREETLY FIRM
#8 6-1 HIDE THE SHINE - Katie bug
#5 12-1 BAY POINT COUNT
race #4 - 11f turf
#3 2-1 TIZ SARDONIC JOE
#2 7-2 NATIONAL DEFENCE
#1 3-1 TROUBLE X TWO
race #5 - 6.5f
... from the entries this looks like a 5f sprint, not 6 1/2.
#8 2-1 FAST KARMA
#7 10-1 FEDERAL AGENT
#2 7-2 SALTY RIM
race #6 - 6f
#7 7-2 ROYAL DEHERE
#1 4-1 ZARGAUX
#2 6-1 LEE'S LUCK
race #7 - 8.5f turf
#1 6-1 MAYAS QUEEN NEETEE
#9 5-2 SCHOOL BOARD PREZ - logical
#4 5-1 LA NINA BRONCA
race #8 - 8f
... very tough field of claimers.
#9 7-2 J.T.'S HEAT
#5 8-1 SQUEEZE THE KING
#4 6-1 TED'S FOLLY
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
