Belterra 7-01-2017
Yesterday's posts were terrible. Won't be trying to get 2 tracks posted at the same time anymore. It cost me in the 1st race at Thistledowns ... missed a setup. Made for a lower quality post as well.
Today we'll post Belterra. My preliminary reports indicate they have one of the most competitive cards of the day. (edit: atleast it was before all the scratches)
I wanted to do Woodbine but only their turf races look promising and at this time we don't know scratches or turf condition.
I will be playing Woodbine but won't be able to post anything. I generally handicap races as I'm playing them. Posted races takes a lot of time.
race #1 - 6f
#4 5-2 MISS RACHEL - 2nd start of year, switch to Ouzts, most logical contender.
#9 12-1 CLAMPET GIRL - luke warm confidence ... last year's opener was her best of the year, regression pattern again?
#6 3-1 BRISCO - dangerous speed if forgets to stop.
... 4,5,6,9 are the contenders. Narrowing them down is the tricky part.
race #2 - 5f
#8 6-1 WHODATTCAT - speed of the speed
#6 5-1 FOR YU MICHELLE
#9 5-2 BOSSES MONEY - Churchill Downs dropper will take all the money.
... use #3,10 as exotic boosters.
race #3 - 5.5f
#6 5-2 W W ALLOCATION
#1 5-1 STORMIN GREELEY
#5 6-1 BRETT'S BOY
... they scratched my original pick. If the #6 goes off fav I'm passing ... scratch has me flustered.
race #4 - 5f
#8 3-1 TEMPESTUOUS AMY - good works
#3 15-1 RETURN TOTHE SKIES - inspect!! trainer has history with MSW longshots (set-ups). MSW ROI=$1.82 over last 2 years. Also has 35% win rate at BTP. Note: adds blinkers.
#6 8-1 FRANCESCA CRISTINA
... 2yo field with bunch of firsters.
race #5 - 8f
#5 4-1 BRUNERSTOWN
#2 15-1 RUFEELINGLUCKY - gets the bug.
#9 8-1 SPIN HARD
#8 3-1 KID CAN DO
race #6 - 8.5f turf
#9 10-1 TROUBLE X TWO
#3 3-1 SCORCHER
#5 6-1 OLD MOUNTAIN LANE
#11 12-1 BELL BY THE RIDGE - exotic booster, Katy-bug.
... they scratched more horses out of this field than are running.
race #7 - 8f
#4 5-2 CHAMPIONOFJUSTICE - Sarvis choice.
#7 6-1 FOURINTHEMORNING
#2 10-1 DOCTORIAT - works have been better than races, we'll see what happens with blinks and stretchout.
race #8 - 5.5f
#3 7-2 GREAT LADY ZEN - pick to click
#10 20-1 WILD DELILAH
#4 5-2 STORMY RHONDA
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
Yesterday's posts were terrible. Won't be trying to get 2 tracks posted at the same time anymore. It cost me in the 1st race at Thistledowns ... missed a setup. Made for a lower quality post as well.
Today we'll post Belterra. My preliminary reports indicate they have one of the most competitive cards of the day. (edit: atleast it was before all the scratches)
I wanted to do Woodbine but only their turf races look promising and at this time we don't know scratches or turf condition.
I will be playing Woodbine but won't be able to post anything. I generally handicap races as I'm playing them. Posted races takes a lot of time.
race #1 - 6f
#4 5-2 MISS RACHEL - 2nd start of year, switch to Ouzts, most logical contender.
#9 12-1 CLAMPET GIRL - luke warm confidence ... last year's opener was her best of the year, regression pattern again?
#6 3-1 BRISCO - dangerous speed if forgets to stop.
... 4,5,6,9 are the contenders. Narrowing them down is the tricky part.
race #2 - 5f
#8 6-1 WHODATTCAT - speed of the speed
#6 5-1 FOR YU MICHELLE
#9 5-2 BOSSES MONEY - Churchill Downs dropper will take all the money.
... use #3,10 as exotic boosters.
race #3 - 5.5f
#6 5-2 W W ALLOCATION
#1 5-1 STORMIN GREELEY
#5 6-1 BRETT'S BOY
... they scratched my original pick. If the #6 goes off fav I'm passing ... scratch has me flustered.
race #4 - 5f
#8 3-1 TEMPESTUOUS AMY - good works
#3 15-1 RETURN TOTHE SKIES - inspect!! trainer has history with MSW longshots (set-ups). MSW ROI=$1.82 over last 2 years. Also has 35% win rate at BTP. Note: adds blinkers.
#6 8-1 FRANCESCA CRISTINA
... 2yo field with bunch of firsters.
race #5 - 8f
#5 4-1 BRUNERSTOWN
#2 15-1 RUFEELINGLUCKY - gets the bug.
#9 8-1 SPIN HARD
#8 3-1 KID CAN DO
race #6 - 8.5f turf
#9 10-1 TROUBLE X TWO
#3 3-1 SCORCHER
#5 6-1 OLD MOUNTAIN LANE
#11 12-1 BELL BY THE RIDGE - exotic booster, Katy-bug.
... they scratched more horses out of this field than are running.
race #7 - 8f
#4 5-2 CHAMPIONOFJUSTICE - Sarvis choice.
#7 6-1 FOURINTHEMORNING
#2 10-1 DOCTORIAT - works have been better than races, we'll see what happens with blinks and stretchout.
race #8 - 5.5f
#3 7-2 GREAT LADY ZEN - pick to click
#10 20-1 WILD DELILAH
#4 5-2 STORMY RHONDA
FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!
