2016 Belmont Stakes Odds
The 2016 Belmont Stakes takes place on June 11th from Belmont Park in New York.
This year's Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator has been installed as the early favorite at 7/5 odds.
2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has been ruled 'out' for the Belmont Stakes, eliminating the rubber match between the pair.
2016 Belmont Stakes Odds
PP Horse Jockey Trainer *ML Odds
1 Governor Malibu Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 12/1
2 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 6/1
3 Cherry Wine Corey J. Lanerie Dale Romans 8/1
4 Suddenbreakingnews Mike Smith Donnie Von Hemel 10/1
5 Stradivari John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5/1
6 Gettysburg Paco Lopez Steve Asmussen 30/1
7 Seeking the Soul Florent Geroux Dallas Stewart 30/1
8 Forever dOro Jose Ortiz Dallas Stewart 30/1
9 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 30/1
10 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 20/1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 9/5
12 Brodys Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 20/1
13 Creator Irad Ortiz Jr. Steve Asmussen 10/1
Odds Subject to Change
The 2016 Belmont Stakes takes place on June 11th from Belmont Park in New York.
This year's Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator has been installed as the early favorite at 7/5 odds.
2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has been ruled 'out' for the Belmont Stakes, eliminating the rubber match between the pair.
2016 Belmont Stakes Odds
PP Horse Jockey Trainer *ML Odds
1 Governor Malibu Joel Rosario Christophe Clement 12/1
2 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 6/1
3 Cherry Wine Corey J. Lanerie Dale Romans 8/1
4 Suddenbreakingnews Mike Smith Donnie Von Hemel 10/1
5 Stradivari John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5/1
6 Gettysburg Paco Lopez Steve Asmussen 30/1
7 Seeking the Soul Florent Geroux Dallas Stewart 30/1
8 Forever dOro Jose Ortiz Dallas Stewart 30/1
9 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 30/1
10 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 20/1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 9/5
12 Brodys Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 20/1
13 Creator Irad Ortiz Jr. Steve Asmussen 10/1
Odds Subject to Change
Belmont
Exaggerator Favored at Belmont
With the help of some liquid sunshine at the Preakness Stakes, Exaggerator was able to upset Nyquist, ending his undefeated streak at eight races. Now that the Kentucky Derby winner has been taken off the trail, Exaggerator is the clear favorite to win the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes on June 11 (5 PM ET, NBC). Exaggerator is 1/1 on the Belmont futures market at press time.
At 1 ½ miles, the Belmont is difficult for any horse to win, but Exaggerator is definitely the one to beat in what's shaping up to be a weaker field. There are nine other horses listed as probable for the trip to Belmont Park; Suddenbreakingnews is available at 15/2, followed by Cherry Wine at 10/1 and Stradivari at 12/1.
Stradivari could be the best pick to upset Exaggerator. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this Kentucky-bred colt finished fourth at the Preakness, which was his first major thoroughbred race. With no front-runners in the projected field, Stradivari might enjoy the slower pace at the Belmont and have enough left in reserve for a strong finish. However, there's a chance of rain in the long-range forecast, giving Exaggerator fans yet another reason to feel confident.
Exaggerator Favored at Belmont
With the help of some liquid sunshine at the Preakness Stakes, Exaggerator was able to upset Nyquist, ending his undefeated streak at eight races. Now that the Kentucky Derby winner has been taken off the trail, Exaggerator is the clear favorite to win the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes on June 11 (5 PM ET, NBC). Exaggerator is 1/1 on the Belmont futures market at press time.
At 1 ½ miles, the Belmont is difficult for any horse to win, but Exaggerator is definitely the one to beat in what's shaping up to be a weaker field. There are nine other horses listed as probable for the trip to Belmont Park; Suddenbreakingnews is available at 15/2, followed by Cherry Wine at 10/1 and Stradivari at 12/1.
Stradivari could be the best pick to upset Exaggerator. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this Kentucky-bred colt finished fourth at the Preakness, which was his first major thoroughbred race. With no front-runners in the projected field, Stradivari might enjoy the slower pace at the Belmont and have enough left in reserve for a strong finish. However, there's a chance of rain in the long-range forecast, giving Exaggerator fans yet another reason to feel confident.
Belmont Stakes live long shots you need to know about before betting
By MONIQUE VÁG
The Belmont Stakes marks the third jewel in the Triple Crown. All eyes will be on Exaggerator who hopes to repeat off his huge Preakness victory. There aren’t many horses which thrive going a grueling mile and a half distance, let alone many that can even handle it. "Big Sandy" is a tough place and a track which definitely draws few comparisons.
Here are some live long shots which I think will appreciate the longer distance of the Belmont Stakes.
Suddenbreakingnews (+650)
What draws me most to Suddenbreakingnews is the race I anticipate him being able to run. While he is definitely a closer, I can see Mike Smith (huge jockey upgrade!!!!), positioning him not as far back as many others. As horses bunch around the final turn, I can envision Suddenbreakingnews will have a couple length advantage on deep closers. The Belmont is certainly a riders race and I think Smith will appreciate this ridgling’s quick closing kick.
His final Derby splits are certainly impressive. He’ll appreciate the distance, the added time to freshen up, and a much more experienced jockey. The Belmont hasn’t historically favored horses who “come from the clouds” or real deep closers, which is why I’m hoping connections and Smith instruct him to be a little closer to the pace.
Brody’s Cause (+1200)
There’s no surprise we didn’t see this colt in the Preakness – all signs show he's best suited racing longer distances. It’s difficult to gauge the consistency of this colt. Running his best race, he’s certainly capable.
His Derby trip wasn’t ideal. He was a little closer than connections probably had hoped. He found difficulty navigating and was forced to race most of it way wide. It looks promising to me that he didn’t look his best in the Derby and didn’t run the race he wanted and still finished seventh.
I think he offers some of the best value in here for your money. He'll be big odds and running his best race is more than capable. While Romans has two interesting contenders in here, Brody’s Cause and Cherry Wine: I think the better of the two is being overshadowed!
Stradivari (+750)
I’m not impressed or overwhelmed by his performance in the Preakness, but I do like that he’s shown capable to race with some of the nation’s best three-year-olds. The Preakness was his first start in the graded stakes ranks and he never seemed to relax. He was going against new company, racing a new distance, and was on a new track and just didn’t seem comfortable. Despite that he still put up a good effort.
I anticipate in the Belmont he’ll be sitting much closer to the front, with a possibility that he’ll even be positioned on the lead. If that’s the case, there are few I'd like more than John Velazquez on the front end instructed to run measured fractions. Despite where he's positioned; a horse just off the pace, or setting the pace in a field lacking front runners and speed is alright in my books.
I’m not entirely sure he’ll be able to hold off some of the faster closing horses, but he’s a must include on all of your exotic wagers!
By MONIQUE VÁG
The Belmont Stakes marks the third jewel in the Triple Crown. All eyes will be on Exaggerator who hopes to repeat off his huge Preakness victory. There aren’t many horses which thrive going a grueling mile and a half distance, let alone many that can even handle it. "Big Sandy" is a tough place and a track which definitely draws few comparisons.
Here are some live long shots which I think will appreciate the longer distance of the Belmont Stakes.
Suddenbreakingnews (+650)
What draws me most to Suddenbreakingnews is the race I anticipate him being able to run. While he is definitely a closer, I can see Mike Smith (huge jockey upgrade!!!!), positioning him not as far back as many others. As horses bunch around the final turn, I can envision Suddenbreakingnews will have a couple length advantage on deep closers. The Belmont is certainly a riders race and I think Smith will appreciate this ridgling’s quick closing kick.
His final Derby splits are certainly impressive. He’ll appreciate the distance, the added time to freshen up, and a much more experienced jockey. The Belmont hasn’t historically favored horses who “come from the clouds” or real deep closers, which is why I’m hoping connections and Smith instruct him to be a little closer to the pace.
Brody’s Cause (+1200)
There’s no surprise we didn’t see this colt in the Preakness – all signs show he's best suited racing longer distances. It’s difficult to gauge the consistency of this colt. Running his best race, he’s certainly capable.
His Derby trip wasn’t ideal. He was a little closer than connections probably had hoped. He found difficulty navigating and was forced to race most of it way wide. It looks promising to me that he didn’t look his best in the Derby and didn’t run the race he wanted and still finished seventh.
I think he offers some of the best value in here for your money. He'll be big odds and running his best race is more than capable. While Romans has two interesting contenders in here, Brody’s Cause and Cherry Wine: I think the better of the two is being overshadowed!
Stradivari (+750)
I’m not impressed or overwhelmed by his performance in the Preakness, but I do like that he’s shown capable to race with some of the nation’s best three-year-olds. The Preakness was his first start in the graded stakes ranks and he never seemed to relax. He was going against new company, racing a new distance, and was on a new track and just didn’t seem comfortable. Despite that he still put up a good effort.
I anticipate in the Belmont he’ll be sitting much closer to the front, with a possibility that he’ll even be positioned on the lead. If that’s the case, there are few I'd like more than John Velazquez on the front end instructed to run measured fractions. Despite where he's positioned; a horse just off the pace, or setting the pace in a field lacking front runners and speed is alright in my books.
I’m not entirely sure he’ll be able to hold off some of the faster closing horses, but he’s a must include on all of your exotic wagers!
2016 Belmont Stakes: Nine of the Last 16 Belmont Winners Paid $20 or More
by Carlo Campanella
American Pharoah swept all three legs of the Triple Crown and treated us to our first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. However, the Belmont Stakes is the toughest leg of the crown to win and 9 of the last 16 Belmont Stakes winners have paid 9 to 1 ($20) or higher, including Sarava ($142), Da' Tara ($79). Birdstone ($74), Ruler On Ice ($51) and Tonalist ($20), who upset California Chrome just 2 years ago.
We don't have any chance for back-to-back Triple Crown winners after Nyquist won this year's Kentucky Derby as the favorite, but was then defeated by Exaggerator in the Preakness. Nyquist beat Exaggerator 4 straight meetings, before the Desormeaux brothers were able to turn the tables, as Exaggerator is trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother, Kent. With the 8-for-9 Nyquist resting this Saturday, you can bet that Exaggerator will be heavily favored in this year's running. Exaggorator will be close to even money as they break from the gate, but he's no lock to win the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont is the toughest leg of the Triple Crown to win, so it's no surprise that 56% of the last 16 Belmont Stakes to be run since 2000 have produced at least a $20 payoff! Many favorites with much better resumes than Exaggerator came up short in the Belmont Stakes, as we've seen the likes of California Chrome, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Spectacular Bid all get dumped as the betting favorite!
There are NO simple answers to why the Belmont is so difficult to win, but we can discuss some of the reasons. First off, horses are athletes, just like NFL, NBA or MLB players. While QB Joe Montana won many Super Bowls and hundreds of games in his career, he also lost games behind a terrible performance. Horses are not machines and have bad days, especially due to physical problems from the wear and tear racing, and training, takes on their bodies.
Next, all 3 legs of the Triple Crown are run at different race tracks and at different distances. Every track has a different surface- some are deep, sand-based surfaces that are tiring to run on, while others are hard and lightning fast, helping the front runners carry their early speed. This difference in surface benefits different running styles.
Third, different fields run in each race, which leads to different pace scenarios and traffic problems. After Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby, he lost the Preakness because he dueled for the early lead into an extremley fast pace against Uncle Lino, who didn't even run in the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby usually has a full field of 20 horses, causing jockeys to navigate through tons of traffic, or get hung wide on the turns, while the Preakness and Belmont usually have about half the number of starters, usually between 8 and 14 runners. Interestingly, we're expecting 13 Belmont starters, of which 4 of those expected runners didn't run in either of the first two legs and only 2 ran in both the Derby and Preakness!
With the Belmont Stakes run at 1 & 1/2 miles, the longest distance covered in the Triple Crown, combined with all of the new faces, expect a much different pace scenario in this extended route. Exaggerator will inherit the role of favorite with Nyquist stuck on the sidelines, so gamblers can look for betting value this Saturday- Possibly another $20 or higher payoff on the winner!
Good Luck. -- Carlo Campanella
by Carlo Campanella
American Pharoah swept all three legs of the Triple Crown and treated us to our first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. However, the Belmont Stakes is the toughest leg of the crown to win and 9 of the last 16 Belmont Stakes winners have paid 9 to 1 ($20) or higher, including Sarava ($142), Da' Tara ($79). Birdstone ($74), Ruler On Ice ($51) and Tonalist ($20), who upset California Chrome just 2 years ago.
We don't have any chance for back-to-back Triple Crown winners after Nyquist won this year's Kentucky Derby as the favorite, but was then defeated by Exaggerator in the Preakness. Nyquist beat Exaggerator 4 straight meetings, before the Desormeaux brothers were able to turn the tables, as Exaggerator is trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother, Kent. With the 8-for-9 Nyquist resting this Saturday, you can bet that Exaggerator will be heavily favored in this year's running. Exaggorator will be close to even money as they break from the gate, but he's no lock to win the third leg of the Triple Crown. The Belmont is the toughest leg of the Triple Crown to win, so it's no surprise that 56% of the last 16 Belmont Stakes to be run since 2000 have produced at least a $20 payoff! Many favorites with much better resumes than Exaggerator came up short in the Belmont Stakes, as we've seen the likes of California Chrome, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Pleasant Colony and Spectacular Bid all get dumped as the betting favorite!
There are NO simple answers to why the Belmont is so difficult to win, but we can discuss some of the reasons. First off, horses are athletes, just like NFL, NBA or MLB players. While QB Joe Montana won many Super Bowls and hundreds of games in his career, he also lost games behind a terrible performance. Horses are not machines and have bad days, especially due to physical problems from the wear and tear racing, and training, takes on their bodies.
Next, all 3 legs of the Triple Crown are run at different race tracks and at different distances. Every track has a different surface- some are deep, sand-based surfaces that are tiring to run on, while others are hard and lightning fast, helping the front runners carry their early speed. This difference in surface benefits different running styles.
Third, different fields run in each race, which leads to different pace scenarios and traffic problems. After Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby, he lost the Preakness because he dueled for the early lead into an extremley fast pace against Uncle Lino, who didn't even run in the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby usually has a full field of 20 horses, causing jockeys to navigate through tons of traffic, or get hung wide on the turns, while the Preakness and Belmont usually have about half the number of starters, usually between 8 and 14 runners. Interestingly, we're expecting 13 Belmont starters, of which 4 of those expected runners didn't run in either of the first two legs and only 2 ran in both the Derby and Preakness!
With the Belmont Stakes run at 1 & 1/2 miles, the longest distance covered in the Triple Crown, combined with all of the new faces, expect a much different pace scenario in this extended route. Exaggerator will inherit the role of favorite with Nyquist stuck on the sidelines, so gamblers can look for betting value this Saturday- Possibly another $20 or higher payoff on the winner!
Good Luck. -- Carlo Campanella
Belmont Stakes Horse-by-Horse betting odds, preview and picks
By MONIQUE VÁG
With the hopes of a Triple Crown spoiled in the Preakness, Exaggerator enters this Preakness Stakes as the one to beat.
There are only two horses which competed in every leg (Exaggerator and Lani). Completing the field are a few horses which skipped the Preakness to freshen up, as well as four new faces all hoping to outrun their odds and light up the tote board on the second Saturday in June.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes complete with odds:
1. Governor Malibu (Jockey – Joel Rosario, 12-1): He’s certainly a colt showing signs of improvement. Since breaking his maiden last year in November, he’s gone on to compete solely against stakes company. He’s raced over the Belmont surface twice in his career, and I’d consider that his best asset. He’s never raced over a mile and an eighth yet in his career and he may be in for a rude awakening today with the tedious extra furlongs. I think he’ll sit closer than most horses in this race, and I think that if rated well and given the slower early fractions many predict, he could definitely hold off some of the late closing horses.
2. Destin (Javier Castellano, 6-1): I feel he raced well in the Derby. Part of that may be because he looked like he wasn’t ridden as hard in the stretch. He skipped an extra prep before the Derby and was given eight weeks off. That definitely didn’t look like it helped his chances. I think the biggest upside to making an argument for Destin in the Belmont is his pedigree. He’s sired out of Giant’s Causeway and dam Dream of Summer. All signs point to him being able to handle the distance and I think with his best effort in here today, he’s a serious contender.
3. Cherry Wine (Corey J. Lanerie, 8-1): He’s coming off his best race, a second in the Preakness Stakes. He’s a deep closer in here and I cannot find myself favoring him over any of the other horses hoping to run the same race as him. He’s shown an appreciation to the added distance he’s been given career wise. Perhaps he’ll continue to surprise and finish higher than many anticipate. I think he’ll be left with too much work to do in late stretch.
4. Suddenbreakingnews (Mike Smith, 10-1): I think to be given his best shot he’ll have to sit much closer to the pace than he is used to racing. With that being said, I think the jockey change to Mike Smith could help him a lot. I think he also drew perfectly. His post is pretty ideal to work out a nice ground saving trip and it will be up to Smith to choose where he’ll be positioned. I think if he’s sitting in the second pack of runners, he’ll be given every opportunity to make a big move and show off the late closing kick we’ve seen before.
5. Stradivari (John Velazquez, 5-1): He took the biggest jump of his career last time out and showed ability to compete against the nation’s top three-year-olds. He certainly ran well enough to be given another opportunity in the Belmont. My problem with him is the morning line odds. His opening odds are a little aggressive for me. Sure, he had a good race in the Preakness, but he’s only beaten allowance horses before. He definitely has a promising pedigree and I do believe he’ll take to the distance well. I can’t back him at these low odds.
6. Gettysburg (Paco Lopez, 30-1): He’ll be the likely pacesetter today. Here’s something to potentially take note of: he’s owned by WinStar Farm. These connections also own Creator and hold the breeding rights to Preakness winner Exaggerator. Both of these are entered in here today and fit the racing style of closers. I wouldn’t be surprised Gettysburg really pushes the pace early on. I’d be shocked if he hangs on for a piece late.
7. Seeking the Soul (Florent Geroux, 30-1): I think connections were hoping the rival directly to his inside wouldn’t be entered, so he could set the pace and hope for a miracle upfront to hold on. With that being said, he hasn’t shown anything. The best part of him is the connections which have had some success with some long shots finishing second in pretty recent history: (Commanding Curve (38-1) in the Derby, and Tale of Verve (25-1) in the Preakness.
8. Forever d’Oro (Jose Ortiz, 30-1): Here’s another long shot trained by Dallas Stewart like the one directly to his inside. This colt has three races and is coming off the best in his career - a win against maiden company. He’ll be racing off less than two weeks rest. He'll be going twelve furlongs after narrowly breaking his maiden at eight and a half. He hasn’t faced horses with wins in their career yet, let alone wins of the graded stakes caliber.
9. Trojan Nation (Aaron Gryder, 30-1): Given the addition of Gettysburg to the mix, the pace scenario may play out better for closers than initially anticipated. At the end of the day, he’ll really need to show huge signs of improvement. He was a disappointing sixteenth in the Derby and has still never won a career race. Today won’t be the day. I must give credit where credit is due though; his sire has given us some of the greats like Street Sense, and Zenyatta. I thank him for that.
10. Lani (Yutaka Take, 20-1): This race best suits his pedigree. He’s bred thoroughly to love any added distance, the longer the better. Connections aren’t shy to say how excited they are with how Lani is taking to the Belmont surface and how comfortable he’s looked training recently. He’ll excel at this distance and I think his morning line odds are completely off. He’s definitely an overlay and a must include in the bottom half of your exotic wagers.
11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 9-5): There’s no way he’ll be anywhere near his odds leading up to the Belmont Stakes, let alone at post time. He’s certainly a deserving favorite and clearly the one to beat. He wanted more pace in the Derby, got a little bit more in the Preakness, and now it looks like he’ll get way more of a faster pace upfront in the Belmont today. That only adds to his appeal in my opinion.
12. Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez, 20-1): He likes to make up ground in the stretch. I think his late run style will be an asset in here today. His Derby line is deceptively good, where he travelled his last quarter in 25.57; the third fastest in the race. He definitely has the pedigree to handle a mile and a half today. After skipping the Preakness I believe him to be fresh and sitting on a big effort. 20-1 are very generous odds. At that price I’ll be backing him across the board.
13. Creator (Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1): He was definitely one of the biggest disappointments in the Derby finishing thirteenth. With that being said, I do think he has a good shot in here today. The field is much softer than the one he faced in the Derby and the most likely scenario of early speed suits his run style. He gets a jockey change to Irad Ortiz which I think is a brilliant choice. Ortiz has excelled at Belmont over the past couple of years and with the Belmont being much more of a rider’s race, this change will probably only help. He’ll be coming from the clouds and will rely on pace. He might just get it exactly how he wants.
Selections: 1. Suddenbreakingnews 2. Brody’s Cause 3. Exaggerator 4. Lani
By MONIQUE VÁG
With the hopes of a Triple Crown spoiled in the Preakness, Exaggerator enters this Preakness Stakes as the one to beat.
There are only two horses which competed in every leg (Exaggerator and Lani). Completing the field are a few horses which skipped the Preakness to freshen up, as well as four new faces all hoping to outrun their odds and light up the tote board on the second Saturday in June.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown for this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes complete with odds:
1. Governor Malibu (Jockey – Joel Rosario, 12-1): He’s certainly a colt showing signs of improvement. Since breaking his maiden last year in November, he’s gone on to compete solely against stakes company. He’s raced over the Belmont surface twice in his career, and I’d consider that his best asset. He’s never raced over a mile and an eighth yet in his career and he may be in for a rude awakening today with the tedious extra furlongs. I think he’ll sit closer than most horses in this race, and I think that if rated well and given the slower early fractions many predict, he could definitely hold off some of the late closing horses.
2. Destin (Javier Castellano, 6-1): I feel he raced well in the Derby. Part of that may be because he looked like he wasn’t ridden as hard in the stretch. He skipped an extra prep before the Derby and was given eight weeks off. That definitely didn’t look like it helped his chances. I think the biggest upside to making an argument for Destin in the Belmont is his pedigree. He’s sired out of Giant’s Causeway and dam Dream of Summer. All signs point to him being able to handle the distance and I think with his best effort in here today, he’s a serious contender.
3. Cherry Wine (Corey J. Lanerie, 8-1): He’s coming off his best race, a second in the Preakness Stakes. He’s a deep closer in here and I cannot find myself favoring him over any of the other horses hoping to run the same race as him. He’s shown an appreciation to the added distance he’s been given career wise. Perhaps he’ll continue to surprise and finish higher than many anticipate. I think he’ll be left with too much work to do in late stretch.
4. Suddenbreakingnews (Mike Smith, 10-1): I think to be given his best shot he’ll have to sit much closer to the pace than he is used to racing. With that being said, I think the jockey change to Mike Smith could help him a lot. I think he also drew perfectly. His post is pretty ideal to work out a nice ground saving trip and it will be up to Smith to choose where he’ll be positioned. I think if he’s sitting in the second pack of runners, he’ll be given every opportunity to make a big move and show off the late closing kick we’ve seen before.
5. Stradivari (John Velazquez, 5-1): He took the biggest jump of his career last time out and showed ability to compete against the nation’s top three-year-olds. He certainly ran well enough to be given another opportunity in the Belmont. My problem with him is the morning line odds. His opening odds are a little aggressive for me. Sure, he had a good race in the Preakness, but he’s only beaten allowance horses before. He definitely has a promising pedigree and I do believe he’ll take to the distance well. I can’t back him at these low odds.
6. Gettysburg (Paco Lopez, 30-1): He’ll be the likely pacesetter today. Here’s something to potentially take note of: he’s owned by WinStar Farm. These connections also own Creator and hold the breeding rights to Preakness winner Exaggerator. Both of these are entered in here today and fit the racing style of closers. I wouldn’t be surprised Gettysburg really pushes the pace early on. I’d be shocked if he hangs on for a piece late.
7. Seeking the Soul (Florent Geroux, 30-1): I think connections were hoping the rival directly to his inside wouldn’t be entered, so he could set the pace and hope for a miracle upfront to hold on. With that being said, he hasn’t shown anything. The best part of him is the connections which have had some success with some long shots finishing second in pretty recent history: (Commanding Curve (38-1) in the Derby, and Tale of Verve (25-1) in the Preakness.
8. Forever d’Oro (Jose Ortiz, 30-1): Here’s another long shot trained by Dallas Stewart like the one directly to his inside. This colt has three races and is coming off the best in his career - a win against maiden company. He’ll be racing off less than two weeks rest. He'll be going twelve furlongs after narrowly breaking his maiden at eight and a half. He hasn’t faced horses with wins in their career yet, let alone wins of the graded stakes caliber.
9. Trojan Nation (Aaron Gryder, 30-1): Given the addition of Gettysburg to the mix, the pace scenario may play out better for closers than initially anticipated. At the end of the day, he’ll really need to show huge signs of improvement. He was a disappointing sixteenth in the Derby and has still never won a career race. Today won’t be the day. I must give credit where credit is due though; his sire has given us some of the greats like Street Sense, and Zenyatta. I thank him for that.
10. Lani (Yutaka Take, 20-1): This race best suits his pedigree. He’s bred thoroughly to love any added distance, the longer the better. Connections aren’t shy to say how excited they are with how Lani is taking to the Belmont surface and how comfortable he’s looked training recently. He’ll excel at this distance and I think his morning line odds are completely off. He’s definitely an overlay and a must include in the bottom half of your exotic wagers.
11. Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux, 9-5): There’s no way he’ll be anywhere near his odds leading up to the Belmont Stakes, let alone at post time. He’s certainly a deserving favorite and clearly the one to beat. He wanted more pace in the Derby, got a little bit more in the Preakness, and now it looks like he’ll get way more of a faster pace upfront in the Belmont today. That only adds to his appeal in my opinion.
12. Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez, 20-1): He likes to make up ground in the stretch. I think his late run style will be an asset in here today. His Derby line is deceptively good, where he travelled his last quarter in 25.57; the third fastest in the race. He definitely has the pedigree to handle a mile and a half today. After skipping the Preakness I believe him to be fresh and sitting on a big effort. 20-1 are very generous odds. At that price I’ll be backing him across the board.
13. Creator (Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1): He was definitely one of the biggest disappointments in the Derby finishing thirteenth. With that being said, I do think he has a good shot in here today. The field is much softer than the one he faced in the Derby and the most likely scenario of early speed suits his run style. He gets a jockey change to Irad Ortiz which I think is a brilliant choice. Ortiz has excelled at Belmont over the past couple of years and with the Belmont being much more of a rider’s race, this change will probably only help. He’ll be coming from the clouds and will rely on pace. He might just get it exactly how he wants.
Selections: 1. Suddenbreakingnews 2. Brody’s Cause 3. Exaggerator 4. Lani
David Aragona - TimeForm US
Nyquist’s failure in the Preakness Stakes was a reminder of just how daunting this series of three races can be for a young three-year-old, making American Pharoah’s accomplishments last year all the more impressive in retrospect. This is a grueling series of races, which is why we see just two horses who are on the brink of competing in all three legs.
Of the three Triple Crown races, this one—The Test of the Champion—has most often been the undoing of horses that are otherwise dominant forces in their respective crops. Accordingly, in recent years it has also produced the largest mutuel payouts of any of the Triple Crown races. The Belmont Stakes requires a unique combination of stamina, speed, adaptability, and durability. Who among these 13 young runners will be its conqueror this year?
The Pace Projector is not predicting a situation that favors any particular running style, but there are a few clearly defined pace players that should assert themselves in the early portion of this race. Gettysburg (#6) is predicted to be on the lead, but of those predicted to be racing in the first flight of runners, only Todd Pletcher’s pair of Destin (#2) and Stradivari (#5) are expected to attract significant wagering support.
Instead, this race is dominated by late runners, with Preakness winner Exaggerator leading the group. The conventional wisdom among handicappers is that plodding types that received fast paces to close into in the Derby and Preakness are often at a disadvantage in the Belmont. However, this year we’re presented with such an overwhelming number of appealing options among the closers—many of which possess stamina-laden pedigrees—that we’re forced to lay aside many of our preconceived notions about the types of running styles that we’d prefer to support in this race.
Let’s take an in-depth look at each of the contenders.
#1, Governor Malibu (12/1): The lone New York-bred in this year’s Belmont Stakes has been improving with seemingly every start. Stepped up to graded stakes company for the first time in the Peter Pan, he put in a strong late rally to just miss catching Unified after making a run through on the rail. He had to alter course briefly around the far turn, but all in all, he worked out a very good trip. Despite the positive visual impressive that he gave that day, the 108 speed figure that he earned for that effort is on the slow side when compared with other top contenders in this race. While his sire, Malibu Moon, is the son of a Belmont winner, there are limited stamina influences on the dam’s side of Governor Malibu’s pedigree. We always respect a horse that’s improving, but we think the waters are too deep for this colt.
#2, Destin (6/1):This colt really did not run all that badly in the Kentucky Derby. Despite having to deal with an unconventional layoff heading into that race, he made a strong move into contention around the far turn and entered the stretch in fourth place. After briefly looming a threat, he tired through the final furlong while ducking down towards the rail. The 114 speed figure that he earned for that effort puts him in the mix, and his tactical speed may give him a slight advantage over his rivals with less early speed. However, we got the feeling in re-watching his Derby that he was pushed to his limit trying to get the 10 furlongs of that race. Others have more stamina-oriented pedigrees than does this full-brother to Creative Cause. There are some things to like, but he’s unappealing at anything close to his 6/1 morning line.
#3, Cherry Wine (8/1): We’ve never been great fans of this horse, but we have to give credit where it’s due now that he’s finally started to run some faster races. He was no match for stablemate Brody’s Cause in the Blue Grass, but his Preakness effort suggests that he may have moved forward off that effort. Both of the top two finishers in the Preakness rode the rail for much of the way, and Corey Lanerie deserves a ton of credit for orchestrating the ground-saving trip that led to his second-place finish. Stamina should not be an issue for this grey son of Paddy O’Prado. There are plenty of hidden stamina influences on the female side of his pedigree. Most notably, his dam is a half-sister to a horse that was stakes-placed at two miles in Australia. We believe other closers will offer better value, but he’s a trifecta player nonetheless.
#4, Suddenbreakingnews (10/1): Five horses in this race skipped the Preakness and instead were freshened up for the trip to New York after their runs in the Kentucky Derby. Of that group, this is the runner that interests us most. The son of Mineshaft caught the attention of many at Churchill Downs in the immediate aftermath of the Derby, in which he passed 14 horses while finishing fastest of all across the wire. This ridgling behaves as if he were born to run this distance, and his pedigree supports that notion, since both his sire and dam are by Belmont winners. Previous rider Luis Quinonez made no major mistakes in the Derby, but it certainly does not hurt to have an experienced rider like Mike Smith on board for the trip around Belmont Park’s unique mile and a half oval. We hope Smith can keep him from dropping too far off the early pace, which is likely to be much slower than that of the Derby. In a race where so many still have questions to answer, we feel confident in his ability to handle this test.
#5, Stradivari (5/1): Stradivari ran an admirable race in the Preakness, considering that it was just the fourth start of his career. However, despite his encouraging result, he did show some immaturity in the early going, tugging at John Velazquez while not adapting well to being asked to rate in behind horses. He does not have the most convincing mile and a half pedigree, considering that his dam was best at distances ranging from seven furlongs to a mile. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher, a 100-rated trainer overall, gets just a 56 trainer rating with three-year-olds running back in stakes off just 15-26 days rest. In other words, running back a horse like this in consecutive Triple Crown races is a pretty atypical move for this barn. We wonder if Stradivari is quite ready for this punishing test.
#6, Gettysburg (30/1): His connections have not been using the word ‘rabbit’ to describe his presence here, but it’s no secret that he’s in this race to make the pace. He doesn’t strike us as a mile and a half type of horse despite the fact that he has the same sire as American Pharoah. His dam’s family is very sprint-oriented. That said, this horse did run very well in the Arkansas Derby, actually earning the highest TimeformUS speed figure of any runner in that race. It was no disgrace losing to Gift Box last time, since that one should be a player in this division later in the year. You could certainly do worse—just look to this colt’s right in the starting gate—if shopping for a massive long shot to throw into superfectas.
#7, Seeking the Soul (30/1): This colt has only a maiden win to his credit. He’s never raced past a mile and has never even contested a race around two turns. He’s a potential pace factor, but not much more.
#8, Forever d’Oro (30/1): He’s slightly more convincing than his similar-looking stablemate, if just for the fact that he’s bred to be a good one, as a half-brother to graded stakes winners Forever Unbridled and Unbridled Forever. He gives the impression that he’ll run all day, but his best-ever speed figure of 93 does not make the cut.
#9, Trojan Nation (30/1): The Wood Memorial form is looking more and more dubious as horses continue to run back out of that race. Unlike others, Trojan Nation loved the sloppy track, closing strongly up the rail to nearly pull off the massive upset. He brings a classy stamina-oriented pedigree to the table, but we can’t ignore the fact that his fastest speed figure over a dry track is just a 96. This plodder belongs in a maiden special weight, not the Belmont Stakes.
#10, Lani (20/1): With all of the focus on this horse’s unusual antics in the lead-up to his races, many lose sight of the fact that he actually put in highly commendable efforts in his last two starts. He worked out an extremely wide trip in the Derby and then was steadied at a key point in upper stretch of the Preakness. If he had gotten Cherry Wine’s trip that day, he almost surely would have been second. Aside from Exaggerator, he will be the only horse in the field to contest all three Triple Crown races, and workout reports have emphasized that he’s been flourishing in recent weeks. Lani received a speed figure that was only 8 points lower than Exaggerator’s in the Preakness, and it’s conceivable that he could be set for another step forward. One factor that figures to work in his favor is the distance. He possesses one of the most credible 12-furlong pedigrees in this field. Tapit was the sire of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, and Lani’s dam, Heavenly Romance, was herself a Group 1 winner in Japan at a mile and a quarter. As a broodmare, she has produced a few runners to contest marathon distances, included a graded stakes winner at 12.5 furlongs on dirt. While he is projected to be last in the early going, Lani showed in the UAE Derby that he does not have to be ridden as a deep closer when the pace is slow. Others are undoubtedly more likely winners, but this is the horse that we believe will offer the best wagering value. At odds of 15/1 or higher, we will take a shot with the enigmatic Japanese wonder.
#11, Exaggerator (9/5): In the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner, the overwhelming favorite for this year’s race is his chief rival, Exaggerator. Of the qualities mentioned at the start of this analysis, adaptability and durability are two of this colt’s greatest strengths. He is not the kind of horse that needs to carry his racetrack around with him. He has performed at the highest level over fast tracks and sloppy tracks, on the East Coast and the West Coast, and at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile and a quarter. He is easily the most seasoned runner in this field, having already made 11 starts since debuting over a year ago. Despite such a rigorous schedule, Exaggerator has never been better, and actually appears to be thriving as we approach the end of the Triple Crown grind. The 122 speed figure that Exaggerator earned in his Preakness victory is easily the highest number in the field. However, it must be noted that while Nyquist was the victim of his rider’s tactical blunder that day, Kent Desormeaux worked out an absolutely perfect trip for his mount. Exaggerator also relished the sloppy conditions of the Preakness, since he is 3-for-3 over sealed, wet tracks. He is undoubtedly the deserving favorite in this race, but he is going to come down in price off the perfect storm of events that led to his Preakness win, and we feel that his margin for error may not be as great as others perceive it to be. That’s the very definition of an underlay, which sends us looking in other directions for our top selection.
#12, Brody’s Cause (20/1): We’re starting to wonder if this horse just loves Keeneland. He has not duplicated his visually impressive efforts over that surface at other venues and has not improved his speed figures enough as a three-year-old to be taken seriously in this race. We gave him the benefit of the doubt in the Derby, but, unlike some others, he got a relatively clean trip that day and just was not quick enough to make it through the necessary holes to reach a contending position in the stretch. It’s rarely safe to count out Dale Romans in big races, but we’ll restrict this one’s use to the bottom rungs of superfectas.
#13, Creator (10/1): The Arkansas Derby winner was basically eliminated from contention after an ugly bumping incident at the quarter pole in the Derby robbed him of all his momentum. Then, after straightening away into the stretch, he veered to the inside, causing his hind end to be knocked off balance by a tiring runner, thus sealing his fate. We know he’s capable of better than that, but, as with Brody’s Cause, we are still waiting for him to run some faster speed figures. That said, we do want to give him some extra consideration here, since he is bred to relish the mile and a half distance. Another son of Tapit, Creator has a dam who was a stakes winner at a mile and a half in Peru and brings a ton of stamina to this pedigree. He’ll certainly be on our trifecta tickets.
THE PLAY
Lani (#10) is our pick to win the Belmont Stakes, over Suddenbreakingnews (#4) and Exaggerator (#11).
Nyquist’s failure in the Preakness Stakes was a reminder of just how daunting this series of three races can be for a young three-year-old, making American Pharoah’s accomplishments last year all the more impressive in retrospect. This is a grueling series of races, which is why we see just two horses who are on the brink of competing in all three legs.
Of the three Triple Crown races, this one—The Test of the Champion—has most often been the undoing of horses that are otherwise dominant forces in their respective crops. Accordingly, in recent years it has also produced the largest mutuel payouts of any of the Triple Crown races. The Belmont Stakes requires a unique combination of stamina, speed, adaptability, and durability. Who among these 13 young runners will be its conqueror this year?
The Pace Projector is not predicting a situation that favors any particular running style, but there are a few clearly defined pace players that should assert themselves in the early portion of this race. Gettysburg (#6) is predicted to be on the lead, but of those predicted to be racing in the first flight of runners, only Todd Pletcher’s pair of Destin (#2) and Stradivari (#5) are expected to attract significant wagering support.
Instead, this race is dominated by late runners, with Preakness winner Exaggerator leading the group. The conventional wisdom among handicappers is that plodding types that received fast paces to close into in the Derby and Preakness are often at a disadvantage in the Belmont. However, this year we’re presented with such an overwhelming number of appealing options among the closers—many of which possess stamina-laden pedigrees—that we’re forced to lay aside many of our preconceived notions about the types of running styles that we’d prefer to support in this race.
Let’s take an in-depth look at each of the contenders.
#1, Governor Malibu (12/1): The lone New York-bred in this year’s Belmont Stakes has been improving with seemingly every start. Stepped up to graded stakes company for the first time in the Peter Pan, he put in a strong late rally to just miss catching Unified after making a run through on the rail. He had to alter course briefly around the far turn, but all in all, he worked out a very good trip. Despite the positive visual impressive that he gave that day, the 108 speed figure that he earned for that effort is on the slow side when compared with other top contenders in this race. While his sire, Malibu Moon, is the son of a Belmont winner, there are limited stamina influences on the dam’s side of Governor Malibu’s pedigree. We always respect a horse that’s improving, but we think the waters are too deep for this colt.
#2, Destin (6/1):This colt really did not run all that badly in the Kentucky Derby. Despite having to deal with an unconventional layoff heading into that race, he made a strong move into contention around the far turn and entered the stretch in fourth place. After briefly looming a threat, he tired through the final furlong while ducking down towards the rail. The 114 speed figure that he earned for that effort puts him in the mix, and his tactical speed may give him a slight advantage over his rivals with less early speed. However, we got the feeling in re-watching his Derby that he was pushed to his limit trying to get the 10 furlongs of that race. Others have more stamina-oriented pedigrees than does this full-brother to Creative Cause. There are some things to like, but he’s unappealing at anything close to his 6/1 morning line.
#3, Cherry Wine (8/1): We’ve never been great fans of this horse, but we have to give credit where it’s due now that he’s finally started to run some faster races. He was no match for stablemate Brody’s Cause in the Blue Grass, but his Preakness effort suggests that he may have moved forward off that effort. Both of the top two finishers in the Preakness rode the rail for much of the way, and Corey Lanerie deserves a ton of credit for orchestrating the ground-saving trip that led to his second-place finish. Stamina should not be an issue for this grey son of Paddy O’Prado. There are plenty of hidden stamina influences on the female side of his pedigree. Most notably, his dam is a half-sister to a horse that was stakes-placed at two miles in Australia. We believe other closers will offer better value, but he’s a trifecta player nonetheless.
#4, Suddenbreakingnews (10/1): Five horses in this race skipped the Preakness and instead were freshened up for the trip to New York after their runs in the Kentucky Derby. Of that group, this is the runner that interests us most. The son of Mineshaft caught the attention of many at Churchill Downs in the immediate aftermath of the Derby, in which he passed 14 horses while finishing fastest of all across the wire. This ridgling behaves as if he were born to run this distance, and his pedigree supports that notion, since both his sire and dam are by Belmont winners. Previous rider Luis Quinonez made no major mistakes in the Derby, but it certainly does not hurt to have an experienced rider like Mike Smith on board for the trip around Belmont Park’s unique mile and a half oval. We hope Smith can keep him from dropping too far off the early pace, which is likely to be much slower than that of the Derby. In a race where so many still have questions to answer, we feel confident in his ability to handle this test.
#5, Stradivari (5/1): Stradivari ran an admirable race in the Preakness, considering that it was just the fourth start of his career. However, despite his encouraging result, he did show some immaturity in the early going, tugging at John Velazquez while not adapting well to being asked to rate in behind horses. He does not have the most convincing mile and a half pedigree, considering that his dam was best at distances ranging from seven furlongs to a mile. Furthermore, Todd Pletcher, a 100-rated trainer overall, gets just a 56 trainer rating with three-year-olds running back in stakes off just 15-26 days rest. In other words, running back a horse like this in consecutive Triple Crown races is a pretty atypical move for this barn. We wonder if Stradivari is quite ready for this punishing test.
#6, Gettysburg (30/1): His connections have not been using the word ‘rabbit’ to describe his presence here, but it’s no secret that he’s in this race to make the pace. He doesn’t strike us as a mile and a half type of horse despite the fact that he has the same sire as American Pharoah. His dam’s family is very sprint-oriented. That said, this horse did run very well in the Arkansas Derby, actually earning the highest TimeformUS speed figure of any runner in that race. It was no disgrace losing to Gift Box last time, since that one should be a player in this division later in the year. You could certainly do worse—just look to this colt’s right in the starting gate—if shopping for a massive long shot to throw into superfectas.
#7, Seeking the Soul (30/1): This colt has only a maiden win to his credit. He’s never raced past a mile and has never even contested a race around two turns. He’s a potential pace factor, but not much more.
#8, Forever d’Oro (30/1): He’s slightly more convincing than his similar-looking stablemate, if just for the fact that he’s bred to be a good one, as a half-brother to graded stakes winners Forever Unbridled and Unbridled Forever. He gives the impression that he’ll run all day, but his best-ever speed figure of 93 does not make the cut.
#9, Trojan Nation (30/1): The Wood Memorial form is looking more and more dubious as horses continue to run back out of that race. Unlike others, Trojan Nation loved the sloppy track, closing strongly up the rail to nearly pull off the massive upset. He brings a classy stamina-oriented pedigree to the table, but we can’t ignore the fact that his fastest speed figure over a dry track is just a 96. This plodder belongs in a maiden special weight, not the Belmont Stakes.
#10, Lani (20/1): With all of the focus on this horse’s unusual antics in the lead-up to his races, many lose sight of the fact that he actually put in highly commendable efforts in his last two starts. He worked out an extremely wide trip in the Derby and then was steadied at a key point in upper stretch of the Preakness. If he had gotten Cherry Wine’s trip that day, he almost surely would have been second. Aside from Exaggerator, he will be the only horse in the field to contest all three Triple Crown races, and workout reports have emphasized that he’s been flourishing in recent weeks. Lani received a speed figure that was only 8 points lower than Exaggerator’s in the Preakness, and it’s conceivable that he could be set for another step forward. One factor that figures to work in his favor is the distance. He possesses one of the most credible 12-furlong pedigrees in this field. Tapit was the sire of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, and Lani’s dam, Heavenly Romance, was herself a Group 1 winner in Japan at a mile and a quarter. As a broodmare, she has produced a few runners to contest marathon distances, included a graded stakes winner at 12.5 furlongs on dirt. While he is projected to be last in the early going, Lani showed in the UAE Derby that he does not have to be ridden as a deep closer when the pace is slow. Others are undoubtedly more likely winners, but this is the horse that we believe will offer the best wagering value. At odds of 15/1 or higher, we will take a shot with the enigmatic Japanese wonder.
#11, Exaggerator (9/5): In the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner, the overwhelming favorite for this year’s race is his chief rival, Exaggerator. Of the qualities mentioned at the start of this analysis, adaptability and durability are two of this colt’s greatest strengths. He is not the kind of horse that needs to carry his racetrack around with him. He has performed at the highest level over fast tracks and sloppy tracks, on the East Coast and the West Coast, and at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to a mile and a quarter. He is easily the most seasoned runner in this field, having already made 11 starts since debuting over a year ago. Despite such a rigorous schedule, Exaggerator has never been better, and actually appears to be thriving as we approach the end of the Triple Crown grind. The 122 speed figure that Exaggerator earned in his Preakness victory is easily the highest number in the field. However, it must be noted that while Nyquist was the victim of his rider’s tactical blunder that day, Kent Desormeaux worked out an absolutely perfect trip for his mount. Exaggerator also relished the sloppy conditions of the Preakness, since he is 3-for-3 over sealed, wet tracks. He is undoubtedly the deserving favorite in this race, but he is going to come down in price off the perfect storm of events that led to his Preakness win, and we feel that his margin for error may not be as great as others perceive it to be. That’s the very definition of an underlay, which sends us looking in other directions for our top selection.
#12, Brody’s Cause (20/1): We’re starting to wonder if this horse just loves Keeneland. He has not duplicated his visually impressive efforts over that surface at other venues and has not improved his speed figures enough as a three-year-old to be taken seriously in this race. We gave him the benefit of the doubt in the Derby, but, unlike some others, he got a relatively clean trip that day and just was not quick enough to make it through the necessary holes to reach a contending position in the stretch. It’s rarely safe to count out Dale Romans in big races, but we’ll restrict this one’s use to the bottom rungs of superfectas.
#13, Creator (10/1): The Arkansas Derby winner was basically eliminated from contention after an ugly bumping incident at the quarter pole in the Derby robbed him of all his momentum. Then, after straightening away into the stretch, he veered to the inside, causing his hind end to be knocked off balance by a tiring runner, thus sealing his fate. We know he’s capable of better than that, but, as with Brody’s Cause, we are still waiting for him to run some faster speed figures. That said, we do want to give him some extra consideration here, since he is bred to relish the mile and a half distance. Another son of Tapit, Creator has a dam who was a stakes winner at a mile and a half in Peru and brings a ton of stamina to this pedigree. He’ll certainly be on our trifecta tickets.
THE PLAY
Lani (#10) is our pick to win the Belmont Stakes, over Suddenbreakingnews (#4) and Exaggerator (#11).
Wizard
* Win & Place bet on (5) STRADIVARI (5-1 on morning-line)
*******************************
* EXACTA WAGERS *
* Exacta box (4) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (5) STRADIVARI & (11)
EXAGGERATOR = $12 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box (5) STRADIVARI & (11) EXAGGERATOR
* Exactas (5) STRADIVARI over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
* Exactas ALL over (5) STRADIVARI = $12 for a $1 wager
* Exactas 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $16 for a $2 wager
* Exactas 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 = $8 for a $1 wager
****************************
* TRIFECTA WAGERS *
* Trifecta 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over ALL = $44 for a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $28 for
a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $28 for
a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 3-4-11 over 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $11 for $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 3-4-11 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 = $11 for a $0.50
wager
* Trifecta 5-11 over 5-11 over ALL = $22 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 5-11 over ALL over 5-11 = $11 for a $0.50 wager
* TOTAL TRIFECTA WAGERS = $155
* Win & Place bet on (5) STRADIVARI (5-1 on morning-line)
*******************************
* EXACTA WAGERS *
* Exacta box (4) SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, (5) STRADIVARI & (11)
EXAGGERATOR = $12 for a $2 wager
* Exacta box (5) STRADIVARI & (11) EXAGGERATOR
* Exactas (5) STRADIVARI over ALL = $24 for a $2 wager
* Exactas ALL over (5) STRADIVARI = $12 for a $1 wager
* Exactas 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $16 for a $2 wager
* Exactas 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 = $8 for a $1 wager
****************************
* TRIFECTA WAGERS *
* Trifecta 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over ALL = $44 for a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $28 for
a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $28 for
a $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 3-4-11 over 5 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 = $11 for $0.50 wager
* Trifecta 3-4-11 over 1-2-3-4-10-11-12-13 over 5 = $11 for a $0.50
wager
* Trifecta 5-11 over 5-11 over ALL = $22 for a $1 wager
* Trifecta 5-11 over ALL over 5-11 = $11 for a $0.50 wager
* TOTAL TRIFECTA WAGERS = $155
Belmont drf inside the numbers
We took a look at both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, with an eye toward how some of the contenders matched up to similar runners in the recent history of those races. Let’s do the same here with the Belmont Stakes, but we’ll issue the same warning as in those articles. Caveat emptor: These stats are mostly intended to be fun, playful, silly, or just interesting discussion starters, so use them at your own risk when upgrading or downgrading who you’re likely to bet in the Belmont.
Derby losers that then won the Preakness
Exaggerator comes into the Belmont as the winner of the Preakness, finally having gotten the best of his archrival Nyquist. Nyquist, of course, will miss the Belmont due to a fever, so Exaggerator should be a legitimate favorite in the Belmont. Since 1963, 19 others lost the Derby, won the Preakness, and then competed in the Belmont, and the record for those runners is an impressive 19-7-5-2. Interestingly, all but four of those 19 runners faced the Derby winner again, and none of those four won, with the best effort being Curlin’s runner-up finish to Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont.
:: BELMONT STAKES: News updates, field, and videos
Skipping the Preakness
In 2000, Commendable won the Belmont Stakes on five weeks’ rest, after competing in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness, thus ushering in a new era. Since then, every year at least a couple Derby runners have waited the five weeks to take a shot at the Belmont. Quite a few were successful. Since Commendable’s win, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags, and Palace Malice all followed his path to Belmont Stakes success. This year, as many as five horses – Brody’s Cause, Creator, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, and Trojan Nation – will try to follow that path, the same number that tried unsuccessfully last year. The record for those runners since 2000: 52-7-8-5
Triple Crown debut in the Belmont
Every year there also are a number of starters in the Belmont that did not run in the Derby or Preakness. Barring scratches this year, those runners will include Governor Malibu, Gettysburg, Seeking the Soul, and Forever d’Oro. A number of Belmont winners match this profile, especially in the past 10 years as Da’Tara, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, and Tonalist all won the Belmont in their only Triple Crown start. The record for those runners since 1963: 227-17-11-18
Stradivari
Stradivari ran in the Preakness in just his fourth career start, and he finished fourth. He’ll be trying to emulate Touch Gold who ran fourth in the 1997 Preakness before winning the Belmont Stakes. Since 1963, Touch Gold is the only winner of the Belmont to skip the Derby and then finish out of the money in the Preakness. The record for those runners since 1963: 27-1-3-1.
Lani
Lani will join Exaggerator as the only runner to compete in all three legs of the 2016 Triple Crown, after running ninth in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. Lani will hope to emulate Quadrangle, winner of the 1964 Belmont who was out of the money in both the Derby (fifth) and Preakness (fourth). Since 1963, 22 other horses competed in the Belmont after not hitting the board in both the Derby and Preakness; their combined Belmont record is 22-1-3-2.
Repeat Sires
Last year, perhaps you may remember that American Pharoah won the Belmont Stakes. His sire is Pioneerof the Nile, the same sire as Gettysburg in this year’s Belmont Stakes. There hasn’t been a sire to win consecutive Belmont Stakes since 1951-1952, when Counterpoint and One Count won, both of whom were sired by Count Fleet who was himself a Belmont Stakes winner in 1943.
We took a look at both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, with an eye toward how some of the contenders matched up to similar runners in the recent history of those races. Let’s do the same here with the Belmont Stakes, but we’ll issue the same warning as in those articles. Caveat emptor: These stats are mostly intended to be fun, playful, silly, or just interesting discussion starters, so use them at your own risk when upgrading or downgrading who you’re likely to bet in the Belmont.
Derby losers that then won the Preakness
Exaggerator comes into the Belmont as the winner of the Preakness, finally having gotten the best of his archrival Nyquist. Nyquist, of course, will miss the Belmont due to a fever, so Exaggerator should be a legitimate favorite in the Belmont. Since 1963, 19 others lost the Derby, won the Preakness, and then competed in the Belmont, and the record for those runners is an impressive 19-7-5-2. Interestingly, all but four of those 19 runners faced the Derby winner again, and none of those four won, with the best effort being Curlin’s runner-up finish to Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont.
:: BELMONT STAKES: News updates, field, and videos
Skipping the Preakness
In 2000, Commendable won the Belmont Stakes on five weeks’ rest, after competing in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness, thus ushering in a new era. Since then, every year at least a couple Derby runners have waited the five weeks to take a shot at the Belmont. Quite a few were successful. Since Commendable’s win, Empire Maker, Birdstone, Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags, and Palace Malice all followed his path to Belmont Stakes success. This year, as many as five horses – Brody’s Cause, Creator, Destin, Suddenbreakingnews, and Trojan Nation – will try to follow that path, the same number that tried unsuccessfully last year. The record for those runners since 2000: 52-7-8-5
Triple Crown debut in the Belmont
Every year there also are a number of starters in the Belmont that did not run in the Derby or Preakness. Barring scratches this year, those runners will include Governor Malibu, Gettysburg, Seeking the Soul, and Forever d’Oro. A number of Belmont winners match this profile, especially in the past 10 years as Da’Tara, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, and Tonalist all won the Belmont in their only Triple Crown start. The record for those runners since 1963: 227-17-11-18
Stradivari
Stradivari ran in the Preakness in just his fourth career start, and he finished fourth. He’ll be trying to emulate Touch Gold who ran fourth in the 1997 Preakness before winning the Belmont Stakes. Since 1963, Touch Gold is the only winner of the Belmont to skip the Derby and then finish out of the money in the Preakness. The record for those runners since 1963: 27-1-3-1.
Lani
Lani will join Exaggerator as the only runner to compete in all three legs of the 2016 Triple Crown, after running ninth in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. Lani will hope to emulate Quadrangle, winner of the 1964 Belmont who was out of the money in both the Derby (fifth) and Preakness (fourth). Since 1963, 22 other horses competed in the Belmont after not hitting the board in both the Derby and Preakness; their combined Belmont record is 22-1-3-2.
Repeat Sires
Last year, perhaps you may remember that American Pharoah won the Belmont Stakes. His sire is Pioneerof the Nile, the same sire as Gettysburg in this year’s Belmont Stakes. There hasn’t been a sire to win consecutive Belmont Stakes since 1951-1952, when Counterpoint and One Count won, both of whom were sired by Count Fleet who was himself a Belmont Stakes winner in 1943.
The Wizard: Why Exaggerator is a vulnerable Belmont Stakes favorite
By The Wizard
Exaggerator, the Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, is clearly the most accomplished runner in the Belmont Stakes field, and for that reason he will be the heavy favorite. He also will be overbet and vulnerable stretching out to 1 1/2 miles, which makes him a horse I cannot select on top.
Exaggerator has run very well in his last three starts against the best of his generation. It is only when you dissect all three races that it becomes apparent he was set up perfectly each time. In the Belmont, this might not be the case.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Exaggerator blew away the field over a sloppy track he relished and his opposition did not. He also was set up perfectly to close into blazing fractions, which resulted in a pace meltdown.
In the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator encountered only minor trouble, considering the bulky field and having to rally from far back. He once again caught a track that had plenty of moisture in it, resulting from a brief but strong rain storm an hour before the race. The track was listed as fast, but it was closer to good. Jockey Kent Desormeaux was able to save valuable ground until angling out in the stretch. Exaggerator sustained a strong closing rally, but in the end was second-best to Nyquist.
:: BELMONT STAKES: News updates, field, and videos
If you felt Exaggerator was set up perfectly in both the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby, the race could not have unfolded any better for him in the Preakness. For the third straight race, Exaggerator caught a track with moisture, and this time the conditions were a sealed sloppy surface. You knew the Preakness fractions would be quick and contentious, but you could not have anticipated the vicious speed duel that developed between odds-on favorite Nyquist and Uncle Lino.
Desormeaux was content to take well back of the cutthroat duel, and placed Exaggerator on the rail to ensure a ground-saving trip. With not a straw in Exaggerator's path, Desormeaux rationed out his closing move to perfection, creeping closer and closer to the ensuing battle up front while continuing to race along the inside.
Having a dead beat on inhaling the front-runners at the top of the stretch, Desormeaux steered Exaggerator off the rail into the five path turning for home. The lead and the victory was all his with three-sixteenths of a mile to go. Nyquist tried gallantly to make another run and Cherry Wine was gobbling up ground along the rail, but neither was going to overtake Exaggerator who won comfortably by 3 1/2 lengths despite drifting in toward the rail in the late stages.
The Belmont Stakes presents a new set of variables that may not result in the same perfect set ups that Exaggerator has been the beneficiary of in his last three starts.
For starters, there is the 1 1/2-mile distance. Just because he has proven to be a closer who has finished strongly at distances as long as 1 1/4 miles does not mean it will translate as well to the additional quarter-mile of the Belmont. If you read the footnotes in the charts as well as the comments to the right of his past performances in his last four starts, you will notice that in each race it states “lugged in” or “drifted in.”
Watching the head-on replay, it becomes apparent that this action could be a result of being a tired horse late in his races or just a habit. Even though he was victorious in two of those four races, the setup and a clear lead in midstretch helped propel him to victory, so being a tired horse did not stand out as much. It did show more clearly when he ran third in the San Felipe and finished second behind Nyquist in the Derby.
Exaggerator also will not get the same quick and contested fractions to close into in the Belmont. Desormeaux, at several points during the race, will have to ask for a burst of acceleration. If not, Exaggerator will have to sustain one run, which could make him vulnerable to a fresher horse in the late stages of the race.
It would be folly to say that Exaggerator will not win the Belmont Stakes based on his resume and the opposition he is facing. Nevertheless, I feel he is the type of horse with a certain clearly defined profile that I look forward to betting against in the Belmont, even though I will include him on most of my tickets, but not nearly as much on top. My wagering strategies also will include some tickets going for the big score if Exaggerator does not run first or second and with the remote chance he does not hit the board.
By The Wizard
Exaggerator, the Preakness winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, is clearly the most accomplished runner in the Belmont Stakes field, and for that reason he will be the heavy favorite. He also will be overbet and vulnerable stretching out to 1 1/2 miles, which makes him a horse I cannot select on top.
Exaggerator has run very well in his last three starts against the best of his generation. It is only when you dissect all three races that it becomes apparent he was set up perfectly each time. In the Belmont, this might not be the case.
In the Santa Anita Derby, Exaggerator blew away the field over a sloppy track he relished and his opposition did not. He also was set up perfectly to close into blazing fractions, which resulted in a pace meltdown.
In the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator encountered only minor trouble, considering the bulky field and having to rally from far back. He once again caught a track that had plenty of moisture in it, resulting from a brief but strong rain storm an hour before the race. The track was listed as fast, but it was closer to good. Jockey Kent Desormeaux was able to save valuable ground until angling out in the stretch. Exaggerator sustained a strong closing rally, but in the end was second-best to Nyquist.
:: BELMONT STAKES: News updates, field, and videos
If you felt Exaggerator was set up perfectly in both the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby, the race could not have unfolded any better for him in the Preakness. For the third straight race, Exaggerator caught a track with moisture, and this time the conditions were a sealed sloppy surface. You knew the Preakness fractions would be quick and contentious, but you could not have anticipated the vicious speed duel that developed between odds-on favorite Nyquist and Uncle Lino.
Desormeaux was content to take well back of the cutthroat duel, and placed Exaggerator on the rail to ensure a ground-saving trip. With not a straw in Exaggerator's path, Desormeaux rationed out his closing move to perfection, creeping closer and closer to the ensuing battle up front while continuing to race along the inside.
Having a dead beat on inhaling the front-runners at the top of the stretch, Desormeaux steered Exaggerator off the rail into the five path turning for home. The lead and the victory was all his with three-sixteenths of a mile to go. Nyquist tried gallantly to make another run and Cherry Wine was gobbling up ground along the rail, but neither was going to overtake Exaggerator who won comfortably by 3 1/2 lengths despite drifting in toward the rail in the late stages.
The Belmont Stakes presents a new set of variables that may not result in the same perfect set ups that Exaggerator has been the beneficiary of in his last three starts.
For starters, there is the 1 1/2-mile distance. Just because he has proven to be a closer who has finished strongly at distances as long as 1 1/4 miles does not mean it will translate as well to the additional quarter-mile of the Belmont. If you read the footnotes in the charts as well as the comments to the right of his past performances in his last four starts, you will notice that in each race it states “lugged in” or “drifted in.”
Watching the head-on replay, it becomes apparent that this action could be a result of being a tired horse late in his races or just a habit. Even though he was victorious in two of those four races, the setup and a clear lead in midstretch helped propel him to victory, so being a tired horse did not stand out as much. It did show more clearly when he ran third in the San Felipe and finished second behind Nyquist in the Derby.
Exaggerator also will not get the same quick and contested fractions to close into in the Belmont. Desormeaux, at several points during the race, will have to ask for a burst of acceleration. If not, Exaggerator will have to sustain one run, which could make him vulnerable to a fresher horse in the late stages of the race.
It would be folly to say that Exaggerator will not win the Belmont Stakes based on his resume and the opposition he is facing. Nevertheless, I feel he is the type of horse with a certain clearly defined profile that I look forward to betting against in the Belmont, even though I will include him on most of my tickets, but not nearly as much on top. My wagering strategies also will include some tickets going for the big score if Exaggerator does not run first or second and with the remote chance he does not hit the board.
Belmont undercard stakes attract big fields
By David Grening
Andrew Watkins/Dubai Racing Club
Frosted is the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite among 13 horses entered in the Met Mile.
ELMONT, N.Y. – Thirteen proved to be a lucky number for the New York Racing Association when it came to this year’s Belmont Stakes card.
Not only did 13 enter the Belmont Stakes, but there were 13 entrants each in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, Grade 1 Just a Game, and Grade 2 Woody Stephens, three of the nine supporting stakes on Saturday’s 13-race program at Belmont Park. The Grade 3 Jaipur Invitational drew 14.
The $1.25 million Met Mile drew a wildly competitive field of 13, with Frosted, the runner-up to American Pharoah in last year’s Belmont Stakes, made a tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite. Frosted, who drew post 5, is coming off a fifth-place finish in the $10 million Dubai World Cup.
Kiaran McLaughlin, the trainer of Frosted, said he opted to run in the Met Mile because of the prestige of the race, and he’s hoping for a speed duel to develop so that Frosted can rally from off the pace.
McLaughlin entered two others in the race – Marking and Tamarkuz. Tamarkuz finished fourth behind Honor Code in last year’s Met Mile.
Trainer Todd Pletcher also entered three in the race, led by Stanford, the winner of the Charles Town Classic. He also has Anchor Down, the winner of the Westchester, and Blofeld, the winner of the Gulfstream Park Handicap.
Noble Bird, coming off a monster performance in the Pimlico Special, will turn back to a mile for this race. Also entered were El Kabeir, Donworth, Upstart, Ami’s Flatter, Sloane Avenue, and Calculator.
Brown has four in Manhattan
Flintshire, a Group 1 or Grade 1 winner in three countries, heads a field of 11 entered for the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan Stakes at 1 1/4 miles on turf.
Flintshire, who won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga last year for Andre Fabre, will be making his first start for trainer Chad Brown, who received the horse in March. Brown entered three other horses in the field – Slumber and Big Blue Kitten, who ran one-two in this race last year, and Wake Forest, the winner of the Grade 1 Man o’ War earlier at this meet.
Flintshire will break from post 10, while Slumber and Wake Forest drew posts 2 and 3 and Big Blue Kitten drew post 5.
Others entered are World Approval, Take the Stand, Ironicus, Oathkeeper, Triple Threat, Grand Tito, and Divisidero.
Cathryn Sophia tops Acorn
The Grade 1, $700,000 Acorn for 3-year-old fillies drew only a field of six, but it includes Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia, Black-Eyed Susan winner Go Maggie Go, and Eight Belles Stakes winner Carina Mia.
The field also includes Off the Tracks, who was cross-entered in Friday’s Jersey Girl Stakes. By NYRA house rule, Off the Tracks will have to scratch from the Jersey Girl after entering in a race the following day.
Cathryn Sophia, trained by John Servis, is 5 for 6, including a 2 3/4-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks. She will break from post 5.
Go Maggie Go finished fourth in the Oaks and turned around two weeks later to win the Black-Eyed Susan. She drew post 6 in the Acorn.
Carina Mia, who was excluded from the Oaks due to a lack of qualifying points, won the Eight Belles by six lengths on May 6.
Paola Queen and Forever Darling complete the field.
Five Grade 1 winners in Phipps
Curalina, last year’s Acorn winner, is one of five Grade 1 winners entered in Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Ogden Phipps Stakes for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles.
Curalina is coming off a 7 1/2-length victory in the Grade 1 La Troienne, in which she beat, among others, Sheer Drama, who is back in this field. Curalina drew post 5, while Sheer Drama will break from post 7.
Stopchargingmaria, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner, was beaten a neck by Sheer Drama in the Grade 1 Madison on April 9, her only start this year.
Cavorting, coming off a monster win in the Grade 2 Ruffian, and Forever Unbridled, the winner of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom last out, are the other Grade 1 winners in the field.
Carrumba, a Grade 3 winner, and the seemingly misplaced Desert Valley complete the Phipps field.
Full field in Just a Game
With female turf champion Tepin safely bedded down in England, a full field of 14 was entered for Saturday’s Grade 1, $700,000 Just a Game Stakes at a mile.
Tepin won this race last year and hasn’t lost since, including a victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile.
Rainha Da Bateria, who finished second to Tepin that day, is one of two Chad Brown runners entered in this year’s Just a Game. Brown also entered Mrs McDougal, the winner of the Plenty of Grace Stakes in her last start. Mrs McDougal defeated Strike Charmer, who came back to win the Grade 3 Beaugay on May 14. Strike Charmer is back in this field.
The Just a Game field includes Celestine, Lady Lara, and My Miss Sophia from the Bill Mott barn; La Berma and Prize Exhibit for California-based conditioner James Cassidy; Recepta, Faufiler, Irish Rookie, and Lexie Lou.
Baffert has two bullets to fire
Trainer Bob Baffert won’t be participating in this year’s Belmont Stakes, but he has two bullets to fire on the undercard in Justin Squared in the Grade 2, $500,000 Woody Stephens and Cupid in the $150,000 Easy Goer.
In the Woody Stephens, at seven furlongs, Baffert sends out the undefeated Justin Squared, who is coming off a win in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico. He will face Sharp Azteca, who comes off a 2 1/2-length victory in the Pat Day Mile, and 11 others, including I Will Score and Mrazek, the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera at Santa Anita.
In the Easy Goer, Baffert sends out Cupid, the winner of the Grade 2 Rebel who finished 10th in the Arkansas Derby and came out of that raced needing throat surgery. Cupid will only face four rivals in the Easy Goer – Race Me Home, Rally Cry, Hit It Once More, and Economic Model.
In other stakes:
◗ Rocket Heat, the winner of the Churchill Downs Turf Sprint, drew post 6 in a 14-horse field entered in the Grade 3, $300,000 Jaipur Invitational.
◗ Kid Cruz, the winner of the Grade 3 Excelsior last out, drew post 7 in a field of 10 entered in the Grade 2, $400,000 Brooklyn Invitational.
By David Grening
Andrew Watkins/Dubai Racing Club
Frosted is the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite among 13 horses entered in the Met Mile.
ELMONT, N.Y. – Thirteen proved to be a lucky number for the New York Racing Association when it came to this year’s Belmont Stakes card.
Not only did 13 enter the Belmont Stakes, but there were 13 entrants each in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, Grade 1 Just a Game, and Grade 2 Woody Stephens, three of the nine supporting stakes on Saturday’s 13-race program at Belmont Park. The Grade 3 Jaipur Invitational drew 14.
The $1.25 million Met Mile drew a wildly competitive field of 13, with Frosted, the runner-up to American Pharoah in last year’s Belmont Stakes, made a tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite. Frosted, who drew post 5, is coming off a fifth-place finish in the $10 million Dubai World Cup.
Kiaran McLaughlin, the trainer of Frosted, said he opted to run in the Met Mile because of the prestige of the race, and he’s hoping for a speed duel to develop so that Frosted can rally from off the pace.
McLaughlin entered two others in the race – Marking and Tamarkuz. Tamarkuz finished fourth behind Honor Code in last year’s Met Mile.
Trainer Todd Pletcher also entered three in the race, led by Stanford, the winner of the Charles Town Classic. He also has Anchor Down, the winner of the Westchester, and Blofeld, the winner of the Gulfstream Park Handicap.
Noble Bird, coming off a monster performance in the Pimlico Special, will turn back to a mile for this race. Also entered were El Kabeir, Donworth, Upstart, Ami’s Flatter, Sloane Avenue, and Calculator.
Brown has four in Manhattan
Flintshire, a Group 1 or Grade 1 winner in three countries, heads a field of 11 entered for the Grade 1, $1 million Manhattan Stakes at 1 1/4 miles on turf.
Flintshire, who won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga last year for Andre Fabre, will be making his first start for trainer Chad Brown, who received the horse in March. Brown entered three other horses in the field – Slumber and Big Blue Kitten, who ran one-two in this race last year, and Wake Forest, the winner of the Grade 1 Man o’ War earlier at this meet.
Flintshire will break from post 10, while Slumber and Wake Forest drew posts 2 and 3 and Big Blue Kitten drew post 5.
Others entered are World Approval, Take the Stand, Ironicus, Oathkeeper, Triple Threat, Grand Tito, and Divisidero.
Cathryn Sophia tops Acorn
The Grade 1, $700,000 Acorn for 3-year-old fillies drew only a field of six, but it includes Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia, Black-Eyed Susan winner Go Maggie Go, and Eight Belles Stakes winner Carina Mia.
The field also includes Off the Tracks, who was cross-entered in Friday’s Jersey Girl Stakes. By NYRA house rule, Off the Tracks will have to scratch from the Jersey Girl after entering in a race the following day.
Cathryn Sophia, trained by John Servis, is 5 for 6, including a 2 3/4-length victory in the Kentucky Oaks. She will break from post 5.
Go Maggie Go finished fourth in the Oaks and turned around two weeks later to win the Black-Eyed Susan. She drew post 6 in the Acorn.
Carina Mia, who was excluded from the Oaks due to a lack of qualifying points, won the Eight Belles by six lengths on May 6.
Paola Queen and Forever Darling complete the field.
Five Grade 1 winners in Phipps
Curalina, last year’s Acorn winner, is one of five Grade 1 winners entered in Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Ogden Phipps Stakes for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles.
Curalina is coming off a 7 1/2-length victory in the Grade 1 La Troienne, in which she beat, among others, Sheer Drama, who is back in this field. Curalina drew post 5, while Sheer Drama will break from post 7.
Stopchargingmaria, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner, was beaten a neck by Sheer Drama in the Grade 1 Madison on April 9, her only start this year.
Cavorting, coming off a monster win in the Grade 2 Ruffian, and Forever Unbridled, the winner of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom last out, are the other Grade 1 winners in the field.
Carrumba, a Grade 3 winner, and the seemingly misplaced Desert Valley complete the Phipps field.
Full field in Just a Game
With female turf champion Tepin safely bedded down in England, a full field of 14 was entered for Saturday’s Grade 1, $700,000 Just a Game Stakes at a mile.
Tepin won this race last year and hasn’t lost since, including a victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile.
Rainha Da Bateria, who finished second to Tepin that day, is one of two Chad Brown runners entered in this year’s Just a Game. Brown also entered Mrs McDougal, the winner of the Plenty of Grace Stakes in her last start. Mrs McDougal defeated Strike Charmer, who came back to win the Grade 3 Beaugay on May 14. Strike Charmer is back in this field.
The Just a Game field includes Celestine, Lady Lara, and My Miss Sophia from the Bill Mott barn; La Berma and Prize Exhibit for California-based conditioner James Cassidy; Recepta, Faufiler, Irish Rookie, and Lexie Lou.
Baffert has two bullets to fire
Trainer Bob Baffert won’t be participating in this year’s Belmont Stakes, but he has two bullets to fire on the undercard in Justin Squared in the Grade 2, $500,000 Woody Stephens and Cupid in the $150,000 Easy Goer.
In the Woody Stephens, at seven furlongs, Baffert sends out the undefeated Justin Squared, who is coming off a win in the Chick Lang Stakes at Pimlico. He will face Sharp Azteca, who comes off a 2 1/2-length victory in the Pat Day Mile, and 11 others, including I Will Score and Mrazek, the one-two finishers in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera at Santa Anita.
In the Easy Goer, Baffert sends out Cupid, the winner of the Grade 2 Rebel who finished 10th in the Arkansas Derby and came out of that raced needing throat surgery. Cupid will only face four rivals in the Easy Goer – Race Me Home, Rally Cry, Hit It Once More, and Economic Model.
In other stakes:
◗ Rocket Heat, the winner of the Churchill Downs Turf Sprint, drew post 6 in a 14-horse field entered in the Grade 3, $300,000 Jaipur Invitational.
◗ Kid Cruz, the winner of the Grade 3 Excelsior last out, drew post 7 in a field of 10 entered in the Grade 2, $400,000 Brooklyn Invitational.
Belmont Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
The third leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Trainer (Belmont Record)
1 – Governor Malibu 12/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Christophe Clement (1-2)
Notes: From the connections of 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, he ran well when getting the place money in the Peter Pan last out behind undefeated up and comer Unified. In fact, since the addition of Lasix and blinkers he’s been very good. Like all of the others in here, he has distance questions to answer but I see a lot of upside and he has enough early lick to be in the game from the get go. His speed figures have improved in every start and that trend will have to continue if he is to win this. I’m using him in all of my exotic wagers and will save with him in multi-race bets.
2 – Destin 6/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: Tried to win the Kentucky Derby having not run in eight weeks or past 1 1/16 miles. And while he didn’t hit the board, his sixth place finish surprised the hell out of me. With that said, he’s now going to try to go 1 1/2 miles with just one race in 13 weeks. Man, does that sound like a daunting task. Pletcher won this with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and again in 2013 with Palace Malice but both were much better racehorses than this guy. Combine the negatives with all of the money he figures to take because of his jock/trainer combo and he’s one I’m certainly trying to beat.
3 - Cherry Wine 8/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: Came flying home through the slop to get second money in the Preakness after getting stuck on the outside looking in when he didn’t have enough points to make the Derby field. The key word in that first sentence may very well be “slop” as this guy’s two best races have arguably now come on off tracks. He’s been highly regarded for a while now and while he did nip Nyquist on the line last out he really had things set up perfectly for him. His rider is making his debut in a race that has been the undoing of better jockeys than him and he really hasn’t ridden much at Belmont, a track that is as different as it gets. I feel like he is just ordinary on a dry track and is another who figures to take money. I’m against him.
4 – Suddenbreakingnews 10/1 Mike Smith (2-17) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: Had some trouble, like a few others, early on in the Derby but, as usual, came with his late rally. The fact that he always comes with that late run is his best quality. Nothing seems to faze him but that traffic trouble that comes with the territory of being a deep closer has probably cost him a few placings in his career. He gets a big rider change to Smith, who won this in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and Palace Malice, along with hundreds of other races over the surface. Would need things to go perfectly to win it and while I don’t think he will I can sure see him grabbing a minor award.
5 – Stradivari 5/1 John Velazquez (2-19) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: All of the connections teamed up with Rags to Riches and Johnny V. won it again in 2012 with a perfect rail skimming ride aboard Union Rags. They threw this guy to the proverbial wolves after his entry level allowance score by daylight and rewarded Pletcher’s faith with a solid fourth place finish in the Preakness over a track I don’t think he cared for. I don’t believe anyone was happier that these guys when it was announced that former Pletcher runner Gettysburg would be entered in here to set the pace since it looked like he’d be the one on the front end. Now he gets to sit his trip off of the pace. His sire was second in this in 2002 and I have been a fan of this guy from day one. A serious win contender, I’m using him in all of my plays.
6 – Gettysburg 30/1 Paco Lopez (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: Speak of the devil and up he appears!! Up jumped a rabbit and here he is!! The question that remains is what type of rabbit will he be? Is he going to come out guns blazing and set the first six furlongs on fire so stablemate Creator can come running late? Or, does he nudge the few others with speed in here through a slower pace and force them to make a mistake and commit too soon? With Paco aboard, who knows?!?! The one thing I know is that he isn’t worth a single dollar of your money.
7 – Seeking the Soul 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. He’s making his first start around two turns and third start since Derby day. I feel like he’s completely overmatched. Another I’m tossing completely.
8 – Forever d’Oro 30/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. Yes, I know I said the same thing about Seeking the Soul. This guy at least won at Belmont but his maiden tally was slow. His full sister is running earlier on the card in the Ogden Phipps. She has a better chance to win than this guy does and I don’t like her for a penny. Toss.
9 – Trojan Nation 30/1 Aaron Gryder (Debut) Pat Gallagher (Debut)
Notes: Winless in seven starts, finished sixteenth in the Derby………sure, let’s run in the Belmont!! You have got to be kidding me?!?!?! I wouldn’t bet him in a maiden race.
10 – Lani 20/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese mystery horse has been getting used to things here in America. He ran okay in the Derby and better than that in the Preakness despite trouble in the start in both. His behavior has gotten much better and he won’t have to deal with the massive crowds he had to contend with in Louisville and Baltimore. Plus, he’s been stabled at Belmont since the Derby and has gotten accustomed to things there. Combine that with the four plus miles he trains every day, his pedigree (sire is Tapit, father of Tonalist/dam is a daughter of Sunday Silence) and all things point to this guy running his best race yet in the U.S. Whether or not it’ll be good enough is what remains to be seen. At 20-1 I’m willing to find out. I think he’s going to run well and can win it. Using him in all of my exotic plays and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 9/5 Kent Desormeaux (1-9) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: The Preakness winner confirmed his affinity for wet tracks by bounding home a good thing in the slop at Pimlico. He fell 1 ¼ lengths shy of winning the Derby and packing Belmont full of fans looking for back to back Triple Crown winners. Too bad the brief rain that hit Louisville on Derby day didn’t last longer. Look, he’s a good horse on a dry track but he moves up exponentially on wet tracks. He might be the best wet-track horse I’ve seen. But now he faces the same obstacles all of the other veterans of the Triple Crown trail face as well as some non-racetrack demons his rider, who won this on Summer Bird in 2009, has been forced to deal with. His work this past Tuesday at Belmont left a lot to be desired and simply put I think he is a tired horse. I also am a big believer that horses who make the explosive move that he makes don’t always fire at Belmont. Would I be shocked if he won? Of course not…..he’s one of the most talented horses in the race if not THE most talented. But I think a confluence of factors make this a bad time to bet on him. My gut, which is ample, is telling me he’s going to throw in a clunker. If I’m right, there is a big payday to be had.
12 – Brody's Cause 20/1 Luis Saez (0-1) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: As much as Exaggerator loves wet tracks, this guy might love Keeneland even more. He’s nearly unbeatable in Lexington but nothing more than ordinary elsewhere. I’m really starting to question what he has beaten as well. I was never a fan and that’s not about to change going 12 furlongs.
13 – Creator 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: If you go back and watch a Derby replay and keep your eyes solely on him you’ll see his day was over before it started. I loved the way he was coming into that race and couldn’t for the life of me figure out why he didn’t fire until I isolated him. We throw around the line “draw a line through that race” a lot in this sport but it’s never been truer than in this instance. He’s by Tapit out of a South American bred mare, so he should run all day. He has a rabbit to insure a hot/contested/hotly contested pace. He gets a positive rider change to one of the best in the biz who just so happens to call NY his home on a year round basis. His running style is always a concern since he comes from so far back but you can say that about a number of horses in here. I’m taking my chances and making him my pick to win!!!
By Anthony Stabile
The third leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 148th running of the Belmont Stakes!
Belmont Stakes Odds
2016 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Trainer (Belmont Record)
1 – Governor Malibu 12/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Christophe Clement (1-2)
Notes: From the connections of 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, he ran well when getting the place money in the Peter Pan last out behind undefeated up and comer Unified. In fact, since the addition of Lasix and blinkers he’s been very good. Like all of the others in here, he has distance questions to answer but I see a lot of upside and he has enough early lick to be in the game from the get go. His speed figures have improved in every start and that trend will have to continue if he is to win this. I’m using him in all of my exotic wagers and will save with him in multi-race bets.
2 – Destin 6/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: Tried to win the Kentucky Derby having not run in eight weeks or past 1 1/16 miles. And while he didn’t hit the board, his sixth place finish surprised the hell out of me. With that said, he’s now going to try to go 1 1/2 miles with just one race in 13 weeks. Man, does that sound like a daunting task. Pletcher won this with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 and again in 2013 with Palace Malice but both were much better racehorses than this guy. Combine the negatives with all of the money he figures to take because of his jock/trainer combo and he’s one I’m certainly trying to beat.
3 - Cherry Wine 8/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: Came flying home through the slop to get second money in the Preakness after getting stuck on the outside looking in when he didn’t have enough points to make the Derby field. The key word in that first sentence may very well be “slop” as this guy’s two best races have arguably now come on off tracks. He’s been highly regarded for a while now and while he did nip Nyquist on the line last out he really had things set up perfectly for him. His rider is making his debut in a race that has been the undoing of better jockeys than him and he really hasn’t ridden much at Belmont, a track that is as different as it gets. I feel like he is just ordinary on a dry track and is another who figures to take money. I’m against him.
4 – Suddenbreakingnews 10/1 Mike Smith (2-17) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: Had some trouble, like a few others, early on in the Derby but, as usual, came with his late rally. The fact that he always comes with that late run is his best quality. Nothing seems to faze him but that traffic trouble that comes with the territory of being a deep closer has probably cost him a few placings in his career. He gets a big rider change to Smith, who won this in 2010 with Drosselmeyer and Palace Malice, along with hundreds of other races over the surface. Would need things to go perfectly to win it and while I don’t think he will I can sure see him grabbing a minor award.
5 – Stradivari 5/1 John Velazquez (2-19) Todd Pletcher (2-20)
Notes: All of the connections teamed up with Rags to Riches and Johnny V. won it again in 2012 with a perfect rail skimming ride aboard Union Rags. They threw this guy to the proverbial wolves after his entry level allowance score by daylight and rewarded Pletcher’s faith with a solid fourth place finish in the Preakness over a track I don’t think he cared for. I don’t believe anyone was happier that these guys when it was announced that former Pletcher runner Gettysburg would be entered in here to set the pace since it looked like he’d be the one on the front end. Now he gets to sit his trip off of the pace. His sire was second in this in 2002 and I have been a fan of this guy from day one. A serious win contender, I’m using him in all of my plays.
6 – Gettysburg 30/1 Paco Lopez (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: Speak of the devil and up he appears!! Up jumped a rabbit and here he is!! The question that remains is what type of rabbit will he be? Is he going to come out guns blazing and set the first six furlongs on fire so stablemate Creator can come running late? Or, does he nudge the few others with speed in here through a slower pace and force them to make a mistake and commit too soon? With Paco aboard, who knows?!?! The one thing I know is that he isn’t worth a single dollar of your money.
7 – Seeking the Soul 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. He’s making his first start around two turns and third start since Derby day. I feel like he’s completely overmatched. Another I’m tossing completely.
8 – Forever d’Oro 30/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Dallas Stewart (0-5)
Notes: The king of the classic longshots Dallas Stewart sends this guy out off of a narrow maiden victory in his third start. Yes, I know I said the same thing about Seeking the Soul. This guy at least won at Belmont but his maiden tally was slow. His full sister is running earlier on the card in the Ogden Phipps. She has a better chance to win than this guy does and I don’t like her for a penny. Toss.
9 – Trojan Nation 30/1 Aaron Gryder (Debut) Pat Gallagher (Debut)
Notes: Winless in seven starts, finished sixteenth in the Derby………sure, let’s run in the Belmont!! You have got to be kidding me?!?!?! I wouldn’t bet him in a maiden race.
10 – Lani 20/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese mystery horse has been getting used to things here in America. He ran okay in the Derby and better than that in the Preakness despite trouble in the start in both. His behavior has gotten much better and he won’t have to deal with the massive crowds he had to contend with in Louisville and Baltimore. Plus, he’s been stabled at Belmont since the Derby and has gotten accustomed to things there. Combine that with the four plus miles he trains every day, his pedigree (sire is Tapit, father of Tonalist/dam is a daughter of Sunday Silence) and all things point to this guy running his best race yet in the U.S. Whether or not it’ll be good enough is what remains to be seen. At 20-1 I’m willing to find out. I think he’s going to run well and can win it. Using him in all of my exotic plays and most of my multi-race wagers.
11 – Exaggerator 9/5 Kent Desormeaux (1-9) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: The Preakness winner confirmed his affinity for wet tracks by bounding home a good thing in the slop at Pimlico. He fell 1 ¼ lengths shy of winning the Derby and packing Belmont full of fans looking for back to back Triple Crown winners. Too bad the brief rain that hit Louisville on Derby day didn’t last longer. Look, he’s a good horse on a dry track but he moves up exponentially on wet tracks. He might be the best wet-track horse I’ve seen. But now he faces the same obstacles all of the other veterans of the Triple Crown trail face as well as some non-racetrack demons his rider, who won this on Summer Bird in 2009, has been forced to deal with. His work this past Tuesday at Belmont left a lot to be desired and simply put I think he is a tired horse. I also am a big believer that horses who make the explosive move that he makes don’t always fire at Belmont. Would I be shocked if he won? Of course not…..he’s one of the most talented horses in the race if not THE most talented. But I think a confluence of factors make this a bad time to bet on him. My gut, which is ample, is telling me he’s going to throw in a clunker. If I’m right, there is a big payday to be had.
12 – Brody's Cause 20/1 Luis Saez (0-1) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: As much as Exaggerator loves wet tracks, this guy might love Keeneland even more. He’s nearly unbeatable in Lexington but nothing more than ordinary elsewhere. I’m really starting to question what he has beaten as well. I was never a fan and that’s not about to change going 12 furlongs.
13 – Creator 10/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-2) Steve Asmussen (0-2)
Notes: If you go back and watch a Derby replay and keep your eyes solely on him you’ll see his day was over before it started. I loved the way he was coming into that race and couldn’t for the life of me figure out why he didn’t fire until I isolated him. We throw around the line “draw a line through that race” a lot in this sport but it’s never been truer than in this instance. He’s by Tapit out of a South American bred mare, so he should run all day. He has a rabbit to insure a hot/contested/hotly contested pace. He gets a positive rider change to one of the best in the biz who just so happens to call NY his home on a year round basis. His running style is always a concern since he comes from so far back but you can say that about a number of horses in here. I’m taking my chances and making him my pick to win!!!
