Beating a team three times in a season (New Orleans vs Carolina)

bodyforlife · Jan 7, 2018

I often hear how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season. But rather than get caught up on what might simply be a myth that got spread around on the internet, I decided to look it up to see how probable or improbable it was.

"since the 1970 merger, 20 teams have had to face a divisional opponent in the playoffs after beating them twice in the regular season. Thirteen of those teams won the third matchup (65 percent)."

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/02/beating-a-team-three-times-not-as-hard-as-it-sounds/

dakids · Jan 7, 2018

Yes but.... How many covered the spread...

bodyforlife · Jan 7, 2018

dakids said:
Yes but.... How many covered the spread...

Good question. Anyone know the answer?

skins85 · Jan 7, 2018

According to betlabsports it has happened 16 times since 1990. 11-5 su (8-7-1 ats)

exploited17 · Jan 7, 2018

I would guess most who won covered. Look at the scores. But while I don't think there is a huge impact I would think it still gives a slight edge to the team who lost both. The real question should be how many times did they face in the first round in the past 20 years? First round teams are more likely to be equal making it harder to defeat a team threetimes.... and especially covering the third time. If it happens in the next round that is where there is likely the biggest gap between teams maing it more likely to win and cover. JMO

Serbone · Jan 7, 2018

In football the other guys are knocking you on your ass, pushing, shoving, trying to hurt you, so in game that counts, a playoff game, New Orleans will have no problem getting fired up for this game, they know Carolina is a damn good team and will need full effort to win.
There is no "trend" or "letdown" in this spot, Saints are a well coached veteran club with a true leader at QB. Sure they could lose but not because of the 3rd game thing...
GL!

bradyisgod · Jan 7, 2018

Serbone said:
In football the other guys are knocking you on your ass, pushing, shoving, trying to hurt you, so in game that counts, a playoff game, New Orleans will have no problem getting fired up for this game, they know Carolina is a damn good team and will need full effort to win.
There is no "trend" or "letdown" in this spot, Saints are a well coached veteran club with a true leader at QB. Sure they could lose but not because of the 3rd game thing...
GL!

Well said Serbone. All of these teams are at max motivation in the playoffs and it shouldn't be a factor. Much more of a factor in the regular season.

rolltide · Jan 7, 2018

since 2003:

P:W and PP:W and PP:season = season

SU:	4-2-0 (3.50, 66.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	3-3-0 (-1.00, 50.0%)	avg line: -4.5	+6: 4-2-0 (66.7%)	-6: 2-4-0 (33.3%)	+10: 4-2-0 (66.7%)	-10: 2-4-0 (33.3%)
O/U:	3-3-0 (3.42, 50.0%)	avg total: 44.4	+6: 1-5-0 (16.7%)	-6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)	+10: 1-5-0 (16.7%)	-10: 6-0-0 (100.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	28.7	116.7	36.2	245.2	21.2	1.8	2.7	11.5	3.8	7.7	25.7
Opp	22.7	75.7	33.7	259.7	19.5	1.7	5.7	7.5	1.7	7.3	22.2

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Jan 07, 2018	view	Sunday	18	2017	Saints	Panthers	home						-6.5	47.5
Jan 09, 2010		Saturday	18	2009	Cowboys	Eagles	home	0-0	27-7	7-0	0-7	34-14	-4.0	45.0	20	16.0	3.0	9.5	-6.5	W	W	O	0
Jan 18, 2009		Sunday	20	2008	Steelers	Ravens	home	6-0	7-7	3-0	7-7	23-14	-6.0	34.0	9	3.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	W	W	O	0
Jan 13, 2008		Sunday	19	2007	Cowboys	Giants	home	0-7	14-7	3-0	0-7	17-21	-7.0	47.0	-4	-11.0	-9.0	-10.0	1.0	L	L	U	0
Jan 09, 2005		Sunday	18	2004	Packers	Vikings	home	3-17	7-7	0-0	7-7	17-31	-6.5	49.5	-14	-20.5	-1.5	-11.0	9.5	L	L	U	0
Jan 08, 2005		Saturday	18	2004	Rams	Seahawks	away	7-3	7-7	3-3	10-7	27-20	4.0	50.0	7	11.0	-3.0	4.0	-7.0	W	W	U	0
Jan 05, 2003		Sunday	18	2002	Steelers	Browns	home	0-7	7-10	7-7	22-9	36-33	-7.5	41.0	3	-4.5	28.0	11.8	16.2	W	L	O	0

Showing 1 to 7 of 7 entries

rolltide · Jan 7, 2018

if beat them earlier this season and then also won previous meeting within the past few years:

P:W and PP:W and playoffs > 0 and (PP:season = season -2 or PP:season = season -1 or PP:season = season) and P:season = season

SU:	27-11-0 (3.87, 71.1%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	19-16-3 (-0.26, 54.3%)	avg line: -4.1	+6: 29-9-0 (76.3%)	-6: 13-24-1 (35.1%)	+10: 29-9-0 (76.3%)	-10: 11-27-0 (28.9%)
O/U:	19-19-0 (0.42, 50.0%)	avg total: 44.6	+6: 7-31-0 (18.4%)	-6: 26-11-1 (70.3%)	+10: 6-32-0 (15.8%)	-10: 31-7-0 (81.6%)