Bearmelt's MLB Comeback Play Tracking Thread

[bearmelt]

4/7 1-1 +35
Total 2-2 +40

4/8 Comeback Plays
TB +100 from Wed
Bos -126 from Wed
Wash +155
Clev +129

Plays against the choke teams (NYY, CWS, Phi) Tor is already playing Bos. This is a variation on the original system. I never followed this too closely before, so proceed with caution. These will count separately.

4/8 Choke Fades
Bal +166
Min -130
St.L -164 or -1.5 +125 Personally, I don't lay over -145. Often, I'll split ML/RL in this range.

Hope nobody minds me starting this here now to track this system. Plays before today were posted in the Baseball Forum.

 

[bearmelt]

4/8 Comeback 3-1 +229
Comeback Total 5-3 +269
Choke Fades 1-1-1 +36
Total 9-5-1 +305

Nats lost after back to back comebacks. Perhaps that takes too much out of a team and we should consider fading them in that role. Or, sometimes talent just wins out over emotion. I was nervous about facing Willis, so I only put 1/2 unit on it. Sorry I didn't post it that way. I often do that with a big dog, play to win a unit or close to it. That is subjective though. Tracking the system is another matter. I urge you all to use common sense.

St. Louis won 6-5, but I am not counting it as a win. I implied that I would split my play ML/RL and that is what I did. I just can't condone laying that kind of juice.

 

[bearmelt]

Sat 4/9

St.L +145
Milw +130
SF -142
LAD +114

 

[bearmelt]

Oops! Almost forgot one.

Adding:

Sat 4/9
Sea -133

STL +145 was a typo. Should have read StL -145

 

[bearmelt]

Sat 4/9 2-3 -164
Total 11-8-1+141

St.L - 145 L
Milw +130 L
SF -142 W
LAD +114 W
Sea -133 L

Sun 4/10

NYY -163/-1.5 +130 5 bottom 7 to win 8-5
SF -197/-1.5 +110 4 bottom 8 to win 4-2
TX +112 4 top 9 to win 7-6 to beat us after M’s scored 4 bottom 8.

This is the second alternating comeback this season. Cle/CWS both won the first game of their next series’. SF is the second B2B comeback. Was came back on the Phils twice, then ran out of gas after traveling to FL, shut down by Willis 9-0. This is a different situation, but Col will be looking to avoid a sweep (albeit on the road), so use caution, especially at this price. Rockies pen certainly has issues though.

Lean:
Hou –147/-1.5 +145

‘Stros scored 3 to tie bottom 6 off starter Wilson. Viscaino doubled in Tavares from first after failing to get a bunt down with 0 outs bottom 9. 6th inning is slightly outside the guidelines, but the 9th inning walkoff provides the emotion. Big # was posted. Opened –170 at Cris, -157 at Pinny. Line has dropped .10. Oswalt still inflated after getting rocked in opener by Cards. Milton did give up 3 on 9 hits in 5 1/3 to the Mets, lol. Public still fading Hou sans Berkman and off-season losses. They are 3-1 though after winning 3 straight. Reds looking to avoid the sweep, but they are also on the road. Let’s see if the price continues to plummet.

 

[bearmelt]

4/10
Adding:
Hou -137

 

[bearmelt]

Sun 4/10

NYY -163/-1.5 +130 L -131.50
SF -197/-1.5 +110 W +105
TX +112 W +112
Hou -137 W +100
TOTAL 3-1 +185.50
YTD 14-9-1 +326.50


Mon 4/11

NYM
WAS
TX
KC

 

[bearmelt]

Mon 4/11

NYM -114
WAS +146 waiting for +150+
TX +100
KC -102 wating for +$

 

[bearmelt]

KC -102 still a play. Doesn't look like they will become a dog.
Was +150

 

[bearmelt]

Mon 4/11 1-3 -202
Comeback: 1-1 Push YTD: 14-6 +290.50
Choke Fades: 0-2 -202 YTD: 1-3-1 -166
Total YTD: 15-12-1 +124.50

Tues 4/12
Pitcher Revenge: SF +135
Comeback: Angels +110​

 

[bearmelt]

Wed 4/13

WAS
NYM
LAD
MIN

 

[bearmelt]

Wed 4/13

WAS +165
NYM
LAD
MIN

Adding:
PIT +130

 

[bearmelt]

Adding:

Wed 4/11
CWS +107

 

[bearmelt]

Tues 4/12 1-1 +10
Comeback 1-0 +110 YTD 15-6 +400.50
Other 0-1 -100 YTD 1-4-1 -266
Total YTD 16-10-1 +134.50

Wed 4/13
WAS +165
NYM +110
LAD -140
MIN -117
PIT +130
CWS +107

 

[bearmelt]

Corrected:
Tues 4/12 1-1 +10
Comeback 1-0 +110 YTD 15-9 +400.50
Other 0-1 -100 YTD 1-4-1 -266
Total YTD 16-13-1 +134.50

Wed 4/13
WAS +165 W
NYM +110
LAD -140
MIN -117
PIT +130 L
CWS +107

 

[bearmelt]

Wed 4/13 5-1 +482
Comeback YTD: 20-10 +882.50
Other YTD 1-4-1 -266
TOTAL YTD: 21-14-1 +616.50

Fri 4/15:
Comeback: Mets +150
Choke Fade: (Hou) Cin +105

 

[bearmelt]

Adding:

CB: Mil -110
CF: (fading Pit) Chi -128

 

[bearmelt]

Sun 4/17
Bal +125

 

[bearmelt]

Fri 4/15 CB: 1-1 +40 CF: 0-2 -228
Fri Total: 1-3 -188
Sun 4/17 1-0 +125
Comeback YTD: 21-11 +1047.50
Other YTD 1-6-1 -494
TOTAL YTD: 23-17-1 +553.50

Mon 4/18
Phi -128
SF +175 and rising. Wait.

 

[bearmelt]

Mon 4/18
Comeback:
Phi -128
SF +175

Choke Fades:
(Atl) Hou +105
(Col) Ari -102