BCS Futures bet: Is this completely retarded?

[A2Gator]

Okay although I feel like the logic is sound, I am relatively new to betting and I have a feeling that it might be sucker's bet. Haven't bet it, but I'm wondering what people who maybe have had more experience think.

Odds to win BCS National Championship:

Florida +120
Oklahoma +160

To me, there is a very small chance that Oklahoma loses to Missouri. If OU wins, they will certainly play for the title.

Florida is heavily favored against Alabama, and if they win they will most likely play OU. The SECC game is more of a toss-up than people realize, however even still, I like OU's chances against Alabama even more than I would against Florida.

By far the two most likely championship scenarios are OU/UF and OU/UA.
Obviously if OU played UF it's a guaranteed winner, and if they play UA I still like the bet, especially with OU at +160.

My instinct is that so called "guaranteed winner" bets are not a good idea, and are basically enticing for the purpose of stealing your money. I'd appreciate any thoughts. GL to all.

 

[bigtendominator]

Okay although I feel like the logic is sound, I am relatively new to betting and I have a feeling that it might be sucker's bet. Haven't bet it, but I'm wondering what people who maybe have had more experience think.

Odds to win BCS National Championship:

Florida +120
Oklahoma +160

It is a good bet if you can find it.

 

[GimmeDattt]

In my mind we are looking at 3 possible national champions. In the order of most likely I like:

1. Oklahoma
2. Florida
3. Alabama

You can get #1 and #2 at +money and #1 at even +160 I would say take it.

 

[fballplaya]

Be carfeul......

I think people forget that Oklahoma has a tendency to not show up for their Bowl Games......

I recall a thrashing at the hands of USC, an embarassment to a coachless West Virginia team........and who can forget a loss to a friggin WAC school.....

Hey how did Georgia do when they played a WAC school in a BCS bowl?

Alabama will win the National Championship.

The defenses in the Big XII we horrendous this year...OU would have no answer for Bama's run game or their defense.

 

[bigtendominator]

Be carfeul......

I think people forget that Oklahoma has a tendency to not show up for their Bowl Games......

I recall a thrashing at the hands of USC, an embarassment to a coachless West Virginia team........and who can forget a loss to a friggin WAC school.....

Hey how did Georgia do when they played a WAC school in a BCS bowl?

Alabama will win the National Championship.

The defenses in the Big XII we horrendous this year...OU would have no answer for Bama's run game or their defense.

That is assuming Bama wins and even if Bama wins, he can always take Bama + the points.

Nobody is saying it is a lock, but it is a great bet on 2 of 3 teams that are likely to play for all the marbles.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

The defenses in the Big XII we horrendous this year...OU would have no answer for Bama's run game or their defense.

If Alabama came within 14 points of OU I'd be surprised. The Tide is a 5th place team in the Big 12 South.

The truth about 'Bama's defense comes to light Saturday afternoon.

 

[fballplaya]

If Alabama came within 14 points of OU I'd be surprised. The Tide is a 5th place team in the Big 12 South.

The truth about 'Bama's defense comes to light Saturday afternoon.

That is exactly what Miami Florida thought about Ohio ST back in 2002....

Ohio ST was a 2 TD dog....and we know how that turned out...

Defenses win championships....not highlight reel offenses........this has been proven in basically every sport.....Ask the New England Patriots...

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Defenses win championships....not highlight reel offenses........this has been proven in basically every sport.....Ask the New England Patriots...

Alabama doesn't have the defense you think they do. A schedule of dead-in-the-water SEC offenses and OOC stiffs would make any above-average defense look better than they are (and I do think Alabama's D is above average, but not nearly the behemoth Tide fans like to think). And they certainly don't have an offense that can hang with a Florida spread when it's clicking.

Do you trust John Parker Wilson in a shootout? Alabama's chances may come down to that.

 

[jwunderdog]

Okay although I feel like the logic is sound, I am relatively new to betting and I have a feeling that it might be sucker's bet. Haven't bet it, but I'm wondering what people who maybe have had more experience think.

Odds to win BCS National Championship:

Florida +120
Oklahoma +160

To me, there is a very small chance that Oklahoma loses to Missouri. If OU wins, they will certainly play for the title.

Florida is heavily favored against Alabama, and if they win they will most likely play OU. The SECC game is more of a toss-up than people realize, however even still, I like OU's chances against Alabama even more than I would against Florida.

By far the two most likely championship scenarios are OU/UF and OU/UA.
Obviously if OU played UF it's a guaranteed winner, and if they play UA I still like the bet, especially with OU at +160.

My instinct is that so called "guaranteed winner" bets are not a good idea, and are basically enticing for the purpose of stealing your money. I'd appreciate any thoughts. GL to all.

Yes they are stealing money from YOU.

You can parlay Okla and FLA on the Ml - 100 to win 48 this weekend. You want to bet 100 on each too win the National Championship with an avg upside of $40? That would mean you would be risking $200 to win $40.

Hope that made sense?

 

[OTK]

Yes they are stealing money from YOU.

You can parlay Okla and FLA on the Ml - 100 to win 48 this weekend. You want to bet 100 on each too win the National Championship with an avg upside of $40? That would mean you would be risking $200 to win $40.

Hope that made sense?

Great post. Just parlay Ok and UF ML this weekend and you'll be making a better bet.

Only team outside of these two with a shot at the title though is USC, and they really don't have much of a chance to make it there unfortunately. Alabama will not beat both UF and OU back to back. Simply not happening.

 

[A2Gator]

Yes they are stealing money from YOU.

You can parlay Okla and FLA on the Ml - 100 to win 48 this weekend. You want to bet 100 on each too win the National Championship with an avg upside of $40? That would mean you would be risking $200 to win $40.

Hope that made sense?

I do understand what you are saying, and thanks for the input. However I feel like the stronger probability statement is:

Either Florida or Oklahoma will win the NC

(as opposed to that Florida and Oklahoma will play for the NC)

It leaves more options obviously. I think Alabama/Oklahoma is definitely possible, and like I said in my post, I still feel like Oklahoma is the strong side there. Obviously anytime you risk more to win less the probability of winning is more in your favor. I think that's what I'm getting at here :think2:...did that make sense? Is it a bad idea to risk more in this case?

 

[OnePocket]

13

 

[JeffTheNit]

Alabama will win the National Championship.

The defenses in the Big XII we horrendous this year...OU would have no answer for Bama's run game or their defense.

The Big 12's defense look horrible against the best offenses. Bama's D hasn't been tested and neither has their offense.

 

[bigwillokc]

Oklahoma has had no problem stopping the run, its the secondary and special teams that is suspect. If you want to beat OU you have to do it through the air and I don't think Alabama has what it takes.

 

[GoSooners]

Be carfeul......

I think people forget that Oklahoma has a tendency to not show up for their Bowl Games......

The defenses in the Big XII we horrendous this year...OU would have no answer for Bama's run game or their defense.

Using past bowl performances from bygone years will make you burn through money faster than any stat. Judging Oklahoma strictly on this stat is what I'm hoping everybody does this year..As for the Big 12 having HORRENDOUS defenses, did it ever occur to you that since the Big 12 has the best and biggest occumulation of offensive talent in it's history that far surpasses other conferences, that maybe they make good defenses look average?

 

[GrilledCheese]

The Big 12's defense look horrible against the best offenses. Bama's D hasn't been tested and neither has their offense.

Two words: NICK SABAN

Do you people not agree that he his head and shoulders a better game planner than Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops. He lives for these moments, especially putting together nickel and dime packages to stop a spread offense... hell... that's his specialty!

You can definitely argue speed and raw talent for FLA (especially at QB), but Alabama has two things going for them: 1. they are more physical on both sides of the line of scrimmage 2. they have a superior head football coach

If you don't agree with those two statements, you need to check your football IQ.

 

[bigtendominator]

Using past bowl performances from bygone years will make you burn through money faster than any stat. Judging Oklahoma strictly on this stat is what I'm hoping everybody does this year..As for the Big 12 having HORRENDOUS defenses, did it ever occur to you that since the Big 12 has the best and biggest occumulation of offensive talent in it's history that far surpasses other conferences, that maybe they make good defenses look average?

How about any conf's is history

 

[across777]

The opening MLs for these two games were:

OU -680

Florida -380

So based on this, OU has a 1 in 7 (14%) chance of losing and Florida a 1 in 4 (25%).

So the probability of both of those events happening is about 4%. Then you'd have to add on the possibility that OU could lose to Bama, which is too much for me to figure out. But that is certainly a possibility.

Its not a guaranteed winner by any means...not even close. But that doesn't mean that its not a decent bet.

 

[fballplaya]

Using past bowl performances from bygone years will make you burn through money faster than any stat. Judging Oklahoma strictly on this stat is what I'm hoping everybody does this year..As for the Big 12 having HORRENDOUS defenses, did it ever occur to you that since the Big 12 has the best and biggest occumulation of offensive talent in it's history that far surpasses other conferences, that maybe they make good defenses look average?

I get your point...however, the facts are still the facts....and Oklahoma hasn't showed up for a bowl game for a few years.....and in some cases against inferior talent nonetheless....

As for the defenses....yes, it did occur to me (and I do agree) that the talent level offensively among the Big XII's elite (Texas, Okie, Okie St., Tech and even Mizzou) are exceptional. However, Oklahoma still gave up an average of 30.7ppg in the Big XII....I do realize a lot of it was in mop-up time, I get that...but Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas St and Texas A&M teams are average AT-BEST offensively as a whole.

Look at the past National Champions....(I know, I am using past history)
what did they all have in common?

Dating all the way back to 2000.....all of those teams had better defenses then offenses (with the small exception of the USC/UT shootout after the 05 season....

 

[MSUSpartans]

Wish I could get those odds