BCS Busters... where their schedules are likely to kill most of them.

[Conan]

Good read written by ESPN's beat writer Graham Watson, a female CFB officianado.


Tough stretches ahead for several teams

May 29, 2009 10:00 AM
Posted by ESPN.com's Graham Watson

In every season there's always a tough stretch of games that makes or breaks a conference title or a major bowl berth. The following are some rough schedule stretches for teams who won their conferences last year and are expected to challenge for their conference titles and/or a possible BCS berth this year.
TCU
Nov. 14 Utah
Nov. 21 at Wyoming
Nov. 28 New Mexico
Utah against TCU was one of the best games of the Mountain West season last year because it more or less sent Utah on its way to the BCS and TCU fighting for a share of the conference title, which it didn't get. That game should have similar meaning for both teams this year. The Wyoming game is intriguing because the last time TCU went to Laramie it came away with a 24-21 loss. And no one knows what to make of New Mexico this year. Because the two teams meet late, the Lobos could put up more of a fight than they did in the early season game last year.
BYU
Sept. 5 vs. Oklahoma @Arlington, Texas
Sept. 12 at Tulane
Sept. 19 Florida State
No one expects BYU to defeat Oklahoma, which is exactly why it could be the most important game on the Cougars schedule. BYU ended last season with a two-game losing streak and it was clear that it mentally affected the team. The high expectations are going to be there again, but this stretch of games, in which they could easily come out 1-2, will make or break the confidence of the Cougars for the early part of the season and might affect their chances of winning the Mountain West.
UTAH
Nov. 14 at TCU
Nov. 21 San Diego State
Nov. 28 at Brigham Young
It's probably safe to assume that with a tough nonconference schedule, a new quarterback and a slew of new players, that Utah isn't going to have another undefeated campaign. But that doesn't mean the Utes won't challenge for the conference crown. The stretch to end the regular season will determine whether the Utes can defend the Mountain West title. It's also good that they get a respite with San Diego State.
BOISE STATE
Oct. 14 at Tulsa (Wed.)
Oct. 24 at Hawai'i
Oct. 31 San Jose State
Nov. 6 at Louisiana Tech (Fri.)
Yes, the Oregon game on Sept. 3 is huge and will undoubtedly make or break the Broncos BCS chances. But this is also a team that prides itself on winning the WAC and this is the stretch where the Broncos can make the most strides. I added Tulsa in here because that has the potential to be a shootout game with Tulsa's style, and could put a strain on a team that then has to turn around and travel to Hawaii, which is not an easy place to play. San Jose State will be much better this year with a stiff defense and an improved offense and Boise State and Louisiana Tech will be a much better game this year than it was last year. The biggest thing here is all the travel the Broncos have to do during the four-game span.
TROY
Sept. 26 at Arkansas State
Oct. 6 Middle Tennessee
Oct. 17 at Florida International
One could look at the Troy schedule and argue that the toughest games are at the end of the schedule with Florida Atlantic and Louisiana, but I think these three games, the first three of the Sun Belt season, will set the tone for the Trojans. All three teams will be better than they were a year ago, especially Middle Tennessee, which now has Tony Franklin, former Troy offensive coordinator, as its offensive coordinator. And I've been saying all offseason that no one in the Sun Belt should sleep on Florida International.
EAST CAROLINA
Oct. 27 at Memphis (Tue.)
Nov. 5 Virginia Tech (Thur.)
Nov. 15 at Tulsa (Sun.)
Yes, ECU opens the season with a tough set against West Virginia and North Carolina, but this stretch of games is absolutely brutal for not only ECU's hopes of defending their conference title, but also achieving an undefeated season. Memphis will be one of the chief challengers for C-USA East and playing on the road in that game won't be easy especially with Virginia Tech, a team the Pirates beat dramatically last season, looming. Then the Pirates have to travel to Tulsa, the team they beat to win Conference USA last year.
TULSA
Nov. 7 Houston
Nov. 15 East Carolina (Sun.)
Nov. 21 at Southern Miss
Nov. 28 Memphis
This might be one of the most brutal stretches of all that are listed here. Not only will Houston be looking to repeat its 70-30 shellacking of the Golden Hurricane last year, Tulsa will have to fend off the potential top three teams in C-USA East. Tulsa doesn't have to sweep this stretch to win C-USA West, but it would help.
BUFFALO
Oct. 24 at Western Michigan
Nov. 3 Bowling Green (Tue.)
Nov. 10 Ohio (Tue.)
Buffalo probably isn't the favorite to win the MAC East, but the Bulls weren't the favorite last year either. Playing at Western Michigan is going to be a tough task especially with two of the top East teams waiting on the horizon. Both Bowling Green and Ohio will be tough this year since both return several key players and both made strides this spring.
BALL STATE
Nov. 12 at Northern Illinois (Thur.)
Nov. 18 Central Michigan (Wed.)
Nov. 24 at Western Michigan (Tue.)
There's no doubt that this isn't last year's Ball State team, but it could be in the hunt for the MAC West as it hits this stretch at the end of the season. These four teams will all be vying for the MAC West and it's unfortunate for Ball State that two of the games are on the road. Getting Central Michigan, who will be the MAC favorite heading into the season, at home will help.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Oct. 10 Eastern Michigan
Oct. 17 at Western Michigan
Oct. 24 at Bowling Green
The Chippewas have a couple tough two-game stretches in the beginning and at the end of the year, but this little stretch might be pivotal in Central Michigan trying to win its third MAC title in the past four seasons. The Chippewas lost to Eastern Michigan each of the past two seasons and played close games with Western Michigan each of the past two seasons. Bowling Green figures to be in the hunt for the MAC East and though the Chippewas defeated BGSU in the last meeting in 2006, the Falcons had won the five meetings before that.

 

[slatter]

That's Graham Watson?

 

[Conan]

yes

 

[bigtendominator]

Who did she write for before?

 

[Conan]

Graham Watson

Independents and Others Blog | E-mail | College Football Blog Network Watson joined ESPN.com in 2008 after four seasons covering the Missouri Tigers and the Big 12 Conference for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. She also covered college football recruiting for the Dallas Morning News.

 

[GoSooners]

Conan...With the exception of Boise (of course) and BYU, I just don't care for any of these teams on the list to even get a sniff of the BCS. Their schedules are simply too brutal. BYU is an interesting story.. If they could somehow knock off OU in that first game (a HUGE if) then their schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable with all of their difficult games being played at home.. Or how bout this scenerio: Boise loses their first game vs Oregon and BYU plays OU very tough in a losing effort in the first game and then runs the table. Would BYU then be given serious consideration for a BCS game? I think they would.

 

[bigtendominator]

Conan...With the exception of Boise (of course) and BYU, I just don't care for any of these teams on the list to even get a sniff of the BCS. Their schedules are simply too brutal. BYU is an interesting story.. If they could somehow knock off OU in that first game (a HUGE if) then their schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable with all of their difficult games being played at home.. Or how bout this scenerio: Boise loses their first game vs Oregon and BYU plays OU very tough in a losing effort in the first game and then runs the table. Would BYU then be given serious consideration for a BCS game? I think they would.

OU is not losing to BYU. End of story.

OU will win the National Title this year.

I agree with you, this year, I don't see any BCS busters partying in the big bowls.

 

[russ1945]

OU is not losing to BYU. End of story.

OU will win the National Title this year.

I agree with you, this year, I don't see any BCS busters partying in the big bowls.

I agree that if OU goes undefeated in the regular season they will win the National Title. Their strength of schedule is much tougher than Florida or Texas. Still some question marks but if they can simply improve on special teams it will make a big difference alone. I am not as optimistic as I was earlier in the year but at least if they get there they will have earned it.

 

[russ1945]

Conan...With the exception of Boise (of course) and BYU, I just don't care for any of these teams on the list to even get a sniff of the BCS. Their schedules are simply too brutal. BYU is an interesting story.. If they could somehow knock off OU in that first game (a HUGE if) then their schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable with all of their difficult games being played at home.. Or how bout this scenerio: Boise loses their first game vs Oregon and BYU plays OU very tough in a losing effort in the first game and then runs the table. Would BYU then be given serious consideration for a BCS game? I think they would.

If Boise gets by Oregon they really only have Tulsa at Tulsa, La Tech at LT and Nevada at home. In the last 2 years Boise has beaten Nevada by a total of 9 pts.
Tcu has to play at Clemson, at BYU and gets Utah late in the season when Utah may be getting it together.
If BYU is in contention then they will have earned it just like OU because of their strength of schedule.
If TCU would get by Clemson look out. TCU projects out to have a top 10 or so rushing attack, has a vet QB, and also has a top 5 rushing def. In fact TCU projects out to have the #2 total def behind Florida and Clemson projects out to #10. That game will be a war.

 

[GoSooners]

OU is not losing to BYU. End of story.

OU will win the National Title this year.

I agree with you, this year, I don't see any BCS busters partying in the big bowls.

Bigten...With the things that I've been seeing with OU so far I would be surprised if they can even get to the big game this year. Much less win it. A month ago I thought that OU could take care of a team like BYU pretty easy. But now with the O-Line problems that the Sooners are having, going up against what could be a pretty decent BYU defensive front, it makes me think that therre could be some problems for OU in that game. I think OU wins it. But BYU could look good in losing.

 

[bigtendominator]

I agree that if OU goes undefeated in the regular season they will win the National Title. Their strength of schedule is much tougher than Florida or Texas. Still some question marks but if they can simply improve on special teams it will make a big difference alone. I am not as optimistic as I was earlier in the year but at least if they get there they will have earned it.

I made my 2nd largest bet on Florida vs OU last year on Florida.

The game played out completely differently than I thought. Everyone is sucking Tebow and UF's nut, but I honestly thought OU was better than Texas (not taking anything away from UT, but don't forget Reynolds went down in the 1st qtr or 1st half, huge loss). Also, Florida won because Harvin played and Murray didn't. I believe Murray plays and OU wins. They probably get in before the half with DeMarco in the backfield.

I know OU lost a lot on the Oline, but OU will be fine their and WR, they will bounce back, but Gresham coming back is HUGE. The biggest return besides Tebow and Bradford in the nation imo.

Defensively, they are as good as Florida.

 

[GoSooners]

If Boise gets by Oregon they really only have Tulsa at Tulsa, La Tech at LT and Nevada at home. In the last 2 years Boise has beaten Nevada by a total of 9 pts.
Tcu has to play at Clemson, at BYU and gets Utah late in the season when Utah may be getting it together.
If BYU is in contention then they will have earned it just like OU because of their strength of schedule.
If TCU would get by Clemson look out. TCU projects out to have a top 10 or so rushing attack, has a vet QB, and also has a top 5 rushing def. In fact TCU projects out to have the #2 total def behind Florida and Clemson projects out to #10. That game will be a war.

If Boise beats Oregon in their first game, then the BCS is theirs to lose the rest of the way. TCU and Utah won't be a factor this year. But like I said, if Boise loses then BYU becomes an intersting story if they can play OU close. Especially if OU should lose twice this season (very possible with thier brutal schedule), it would leave that extra BCS slot open to just about anybody.

 

[bigtendominator]

Bigten...With the things that I've been seeing with OU so far I would be surprised if they can even get to the big game this year. Much less win it. A month ago I thought that OU could take care of a team like BYU pretty easy. But now with the O-Line problems that the Sooners are having, going up against what could be a pretty decent BYU defensive front, it makes me think that therre could be some problems for OU in that game. I think OU wins it. But BYU could look good in losing.

GS,

Its early. Two-a-days, help get the line going. They have the running game, granted that requires an oline, but Bradford and 18 coming back will be huge. Also defensively, I don't think the 1st team D is going to give up more than 14-17 ppg.

Unless someone can score 25 points on OU, I think OU is going to be tough to beat. I really like them defensively. Remember they don't have to score last year.

I think you would agree they win 8 out 12 by just being OU and their talent alone. BYU, Texas, Okie Lite, and someone else will be a challenge, but at the end of the day, I just feelt this team will win the national title.

 

[bigtendominator]

If Boise beats Oregon in their first game, then the BCS is theirs to lose the rest of the way. TCU and Utah won't be a factor this year. But like I said, if Boise loses then BYU becomes an intersting story if they can play OU close. Especially if OU should lose twice this season (very possible with thier brutal schedule), it would leave that extra BCS slot open to just about anybody.

I agree, but I like the Ducks to finish in the top 10 this year.

 

[Conan]

GoSooners, IF TCU gets past Utah, the following week when their let down hits them, Wyoming will be poised to win their GOY with a new coach and a new attitude at home, perhaps as spoilers but the situation is very favorable for them.

Boise could have the best shot. Considering the time of the year, they COULD climb back into contention with a narrow loss to Oregon because I think this year the top 10 and even the top 5 will be in flux similar to '07. Other than that, Boise needs a win in W1 to assure a chance. Then it's as you say, it's theirs to lose. Aside from SJ St. who knows this team intimately, their biggest hurdle could be La Tech because they are due to break out under Dooley. They've made great strides since he took over. I don't think they are ready to beat Boise yet, but depending on where they sit in the WAC, this game could have more significance than it appears to have at this point. Then anything's possible.

Tulsa will be tough but this kind of game is well within Boise's reach to win and look convincing. I don't think Tulsa has a clue what they are in for. The Broncos have taken down tougher opposition away. Boise wouldn't be who they are if they weren't pretty decent road warriors.

I agree that BYU needs to beat OU. End of story if not. If they catch the Sooners napping, and it has happened before, they are the only team on this list that has a better shot than Boise.

 

[GoSooners]

GS,

Its early. Two-a-days, help get the line going. They have the running game, granted that requires an oline, but Bradford and 18 coming back will be huge. Also defensively, I don't think the 1st team D is going to give up more than 14-17 ppg.

Unless someone can score 25 points on OU, I think OU is going to be tough to beat. I really like them defensively. Remember they don't have to score last year.

I think you would agree they win 8 out 12 by just being OU and their talent alone. BYU, Texas, Okie Lite, and someone else will be a challenge, but at the end of the day, I just feelt this team will win the national title.

I've learned to never say never when it comes to college football. I know that OU will need to get some lineman healthy before the fall practices. Right now they have only 8 healthy lineman on the roster. And only a couple of those have real playing experience. Usually I totally throw teams like this out. But there are a handful of teams in the country where you simply can't do that. And OU is one of them. For OU, much depends on how the ball bounces in some of those tough road games. You can have the best defense in the world. But you still have to score points when it's crunch time. Just like USC last season. They had the best defense in the country. But lost that one game on the road that they should have won. And it was mainly because their offense struggled. You really need to have the whole package nowdays if you want to win the BCS title. For me with OU it's a wait and see. But what I'm pretty sure of with OU this year is they aren't going to cover nearly as many spreads as they did last season. They'll be relying much more on their defense to win them games. Which usually doesn't translate to being a great ATS team. But hey, I'll leave the betting alone, and settle for the win anytime.

 

[GoSooners]

GoSooners, IF TCU gets past Utah, the following week when their let down hits them, Wyoming will be poised to win their GOY with a new coach and a new attitude at home, perhaps as spoilers but the situation is very favorable for them.

Boise could have the best shot. Considering the time of the year, they COULD climb back into contention with a narrow loss to Oregon because I think this year the top 10 and even the top 5 will be in flux similar to '07. Other than that, Boise needs a win in W1 to assure a chance. Then it's as you say, it's theirs to lose. Aside from SJ St. who knows this team intimately, their biggest hurdle could be La Tech because they are due to break out under Dooley. They've made great strides since he took over. I don't think they are ready to beat Boise yet, but depending on where they sit in the WAC, this game could have more significance than it appears to have at this point. Then anything's possible.

Tulsa will be tough but this kind of game is well within Boise's reach to win and look convincing. I don't think Tulsa has a clue what they are in for. The Broncos have taken down tougher opposition away. Boise wouldn't be who they are if they weren't pretty decent road warriors.

I agree that BYU needs to beat OU. End of story if not. If they catch the Sooners napping, and it has happened before, they are the only team on this list that has a better shot than Boise.

Conan...If Boise and BYU both have one loss a piece at the end of the season, I believe they would take BYU in a heartbeat over Boise. If they took either.. BYU has a much much tougher schedule from a better conference than Boise. Boise will have a couple roadblocks against Tulsa and Fresno. But I think both of those teams could be down a notch this year. La Tech also loses a fair share of starters. So I don't see too many problems there for Boise. But they HAVE to beat Oregon in that first game to go in my opinion. Especially since the game is being played at Boise. Losing on your home field isn't condusive to a non-bcs team making it to a BCS bowl. I haven't seen it happen yet.

 

[russ1945]

What is wrong with the whole scenario is how weak the schedules are for teams in the nonBCS conferences. By that I mean how would TCU fare in the Big 12 South, Boise or Byu in the Pac 10. The season record in the end only reflect your success against the teams you played. What if Boise gets by Oregon and then Oregon drops two or thee conference games and that is Boise's only showcase game. What if TCU beats Clemson and then Clemson does not live up to expectations. I will say this however, I think all thee of those teams, Boise, TCU and BYU would be very competetive in the Big 10. Actually I am more worried about Ohio State of Penn State skating through and losing to whoever they would play for the NC.

 

[russ1945]

I made my 2nd largest bet on Florida vs OU last year on Florida.

The game played out completely differently than I thought. Everyone is sucking Tebow and UF's nut, but I honestly thought OU was better than Texas (not taking anything away from UT, but don't forget Reynolds went down in the 1st qtr or 1st half, huge loss). Also, Florida won because Harvin played and Murray didn't. I believe Murray plays and OU wins. They probably get in before the half with DeMarco in the backfield.

I know OU lost a lot on the Oline, but OU will be fine their and WR, they will bounce back, but Gresham coming back is HUGE. The biggest return besides Tebow and Bradford in the nation imo.

Defensively, they are as good as Florida.

Not many people outside of this area realize how much losing Reynolds hurt OU last year. Having Murray and Reynods last year would have been night and day and they had their chances anyway. I personally think Harvin will not be replaced by any one player and that may get Florida in the end. I am not so worried by the OL and WR as I am their kicking game. At the spring game both were not very impressive to say the least and the KO's were woeful and if they don't get deeper an already exposed KO defense will be realy hard pressed. That gets to be all about field position and that will be key in the games against BYU and Miami early. The punter was very inconsitent. Maybe they had tired legs.
If OU goes undefeated during the regular season that would be one of the most impressive runs I can remember.

 

[GoSooners]

I've been hearing alot of talk lately that if OU had Murray in that BCS title game we would have won. He would have made a difference, especially in those long runs where the slower Brown couldn't outrun the defense. But I wouldn't go as far as say OU would have won the game. We still had the problem of Percy Harvin. And OU also couldn't deal with the superior Florida secondary. And something else that the OU defense gave up a fair share of last season was the long plays. This, along with the special teams are two things OU will have to correct if they want to get by Texas and win the South. So it's not just about the OU offense.