BCS Breakdown: Eliminating the Contenders

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

A few people had requested this thread as I have been doing it for the past few years.
Going to cut and paste from where I originally posted it.

Please remember the following as I do not want this thread to degenerate into a chest-thumping and name-calling thread as some are wont to do:

<TABLE class=tborder id=post17775 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_17775 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">Debate is encouraged, however, it is expected to be backed up with actual facts not opinions.
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

BCS Breakdown: Eliminating the contenders
<HR SIZE=1>For the past few years, I have posted a season long thread for college football wherein several criteria are used to try and get an unbiased handle on who can legitimately advance to the BCS championship game.

It has been a fairly popular thread and I have decided to continue its legacy here.

A few brief explanations of the criteria and the thread will be updated weekly as the results on the field dictate movement.

Note this is not a thread where cheerleading or trash-talking is encouraged. It is supposed to be as unbiased as it gets (as much as that is possible with the human element of polls present in the BCS) and a more scientific approach.

Debate is encouraged, however, it is expected to be backed up with actual facts not opinions.
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

Before I begin with the categorization of teams an explanation of the criteria is important.

Every year this thread is fine-tuned. Last year we had an anomaly as the first-ever two loss team advanced to the championship game since the inception of the BCS. As a result of that, I have created different tiers this year.

Teams are placed in three tiers.
Tier 1 consists of legitimate title contenders.
Tier 2 consists of teams that would be considering only in the unlikely event less than two Tier 1 teams remain.
Tier 3 are teams that have been eliminated from title contention.

Please note that there are certain human elements that result in a bias that makes a great difficulty to account for in this process. Specifically two biases are obviously present, 1) the early-season loss bias, where a team losing earlier in the year seems to have an advantage over a team losing late, and 2) the powerhouse bias, where "traditional" powerhouses have an advantage over newcomers to the scene. An example of #2 would be last year when a 1-loss Ohio State team was rated much higher than a 1-loss Missouri or Kansas team.

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<TABLE class=tborder id=post17777 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_17777 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">There are 120 Division 1 (BCS) football teams. In theory (note: this theory may not in fact be a reality, for example a 12-0 Sun Belt team may not have a shot no matter what the scenario), all the teams have a shot at a BCS championship game at the beginning of the year. Their results on the field, i.e. win-loss record will determine their fate.

All teams and conferences are not created equal however. Thus the creation of the two tiers.

In tier one are all teams from the six BCS conferences and Notre Dame (they are a special exception). Including independent Notre Dame there are 66 teams in tier one from the following conferences: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC. These teams will remain in tier one unless one of the following happens: 1) they lose a game and are not ranked in the top 10 at the time of their loss, 2) the lose two games with one occurring when they were in the top 10 of the polls. All other results will remove them from tier one to tier two.

Tier two consists of 54 teams from the following conferences: Conference USA, MAC, WAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Independents less Notre Dame. These teams do not control their own destiny, they need to rely on all tier one teams to be eliminated before they are considered. Teams are removed from tier two to tier three in the following ways: 1) A loss from a non-BCS conference, 2) two losses for a team from a BCS conference provided they were not ranked in the top 10.

Tier three consists of all teams eliminated from title contention.
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<TABLE class=tborder id=post17779 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_17779 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">OK, not that all of the logistics are out of the way we can start the updating process.

At the beginning of the year, there were 66 teams in tier 1 and 54 teams in tier 2 (no teams started off in tier 3).

Through week 5 of the season 76 teams have been moved to tier 3. I will not name them but will specifically categorize all the teams in tier 1 and tier 2.

There are 19 teams in tier 1, these are your legitimate title contenders as of now.

There are 25 teams in tier 2, these are teams that will need lots of help along the way and can be considered fringe contenders at best (for future betting purposes I consider these teams eliminated and focus on tier 1).

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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

10-03-2008, 04:50 PM </TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px solid" align=right>#5 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: 0px solid" width=175>

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<HR SIZE=1>Tier 1 teams (2008 BCS title contenders):

UConn
So. Fla. *
Penn State
Northwestern
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Alabama
LSU
Ohio State -1
Wisconsin -1
USC -1
Georgia -1
Florida -1
Auburn -1

*South Florida lost mid-week and will move to tier 2.
-1 represents teams with a loss but still meet criteria to stay in tier 1.

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<HR SIZE=1>Tier 2 teams:
Tulsa
Ball State
Utah
BYU
Boise State
Maryland -1
Wake Forest -1
BC -1
Fla. St. -1
Va. Tech -1
Duke -1
UNC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
Michigan St. -1
Minnesota -1
Kansas St. -1
Nebraska -1
Kansas -1
Colorado -1
Oregon -1
Cal -1
Arizona -1
Notre Dame -1

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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<HR SIZE=1>Lastly, I like to highlight games each week that have title implications. Many of these will see eliminations of contenders as they face off against each other. These games largely focus on two tier 1 teams battling.

This week:
Kentucky at Alabama (Kentucky would be eliminated with loss, 'Bama would not)
Auburn at Vanderbilt (loser moves to tier 2 and likely out of contention)
Ohio St. at Wisconsin (loser leaves BCS town match for good)

Those are the three games with direct head-to-head implications.
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<TABLE class=tborder id=post18445 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_18445 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">Update after this week's action:

Looks like we lost 4 of 19 contenders this week (with another still eligible by the criteria, but basically eliminated).

Tier 1 goes from 19 to 15 teams:

Mizzou
Okla. St.
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Penn State
Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Alabama
LSU
So. Fla -1 (yes they are still in tier 1 by the criteria)
Ohio State
USC
Florida
Georgia

moved from tier 1 to tier 2:
UConn
Knetucky

moved from tier 1 to tier 3:
Wisconsin -2
Auburn -2
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

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<HR SIZE=1>Tier 2 lost 8 teams and added 4 teams.

Tier 2 teams:
Tulsa
Ball St.
Utah
BYU
Boise State
Wake -1
BC -1
Fla. St. -1
Va. Tech -1
UNC -1
Ga. Tech -1
Kansas -1
UConn -1
Pitt -1
Cincy -1
Mich. St. -1
Minnesota -1
Notre Dame -1
Cal -1
'Zona -1
Kentucky -1
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<HR SIZE=1>Tier 1 teams:

Mizzou
Okla. St.
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Penn State
Northwestern
Vanderbilt
Alabama
LSU
So. Fla -1 (yes they are still in tier 1 by the criteria)
Ohio State
USC
Florida
Georgia

Looking at this list I would conservatively estimate that there are at most 10 teams with a shot at the title.

So. Fla. is not a contender and if there were any flexibility in the criteria would not be where they are.

Oklahoma State will soon be banished from tier 1.

Texas Tech cannot be envisioned to roll through the rest of their schedule.

Northwestern will likely trip up from here on out.

Vanderbilt, while a nice story, won't roll through the rest of the field.

That leaves us with these 10:
Mizzou
Oklahoma
Texas
Penn St.
'Bama
LSU
Ohio St.
USC
Fla.
Georgia

There are several key games between these teams, particularly in the Big 12 and SEC, starting this week that will go a long way towards seeing how this shakes out.
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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

This week's key games, two monster matchups:

Championship implication games-

Texas at Oklahoma
LSU at Florida
Oklahoma State at Mizzou

Other key matchups-

Utah at Wyoming
Vandy at Miss. St.
Nebraska at Tex. Tech
Mich. St. at N'W
Purdue at Ohio St.
Ariz. St. at USC
Tenn. at Ga.
N. Mex. at BYU
Boise at S. Miss.
Penn St. at Wisconsin

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<TABLE class=tborder id=post19633 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt3 id=td_post_19633 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px solid">Updating after the weekend.

Movers:
Northwestern from Tier 1 to Tier 2
Vandy from Tier 1 to Tier 2

This effectively eliminates them from the title chase.

Tier 2 to Tier 3:

Notre Dame
Arizona
Kentucky

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GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

Tier 1 movers, all three drop to the bottom of the championship tier but are not eliminated from contention:

Oklahoma
Missouri
LSU

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<HR SIZE=1>
13 teams remain in tier 1 (i.e. the championship tier):

Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Alabama
Oklahoma -1
Missouri -1
So. Fla. -1
Ohio St. -1
USC -1
LSU -1
Florida -1
Georgia -1

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

Upcoming games involving title contenders:

Vandy at Georgia
LSU at So. Carolina
Tex. Tech at Texas A&M
Kansas at Oklahoma
Baylor at Oklahoma State
USC at Wazzou
Ole miss at 'Bama
Ohio St. at Mich. St.
Michigan at Penn St.
Mizzou at Texas*

* only game involving head to head championship contenders, Mizzou would be eliminated with a loss and Texas would not

GreenDoberman · Oct 16, 2008

<HR SIZE=1>
Commentary:

There are currently 5 undefeated teams. With the way the scheduling plays out there will be at most 3 undefeated tier 1 teams (not counting the tier 2, smaller conference teams) should they run the table. The three Big 12 schools will play each other eliminating 2 of the teams from the ranks of the undefeateds.

Right now Texas and Alabama control thier own destiny. Penn State probably needs one of these two to lose. Alabama has a very difficult schedule going forward. Both Alabama and Texas have 7 games remaining while Penn State has only 5 games left.

Cusipz · Oct 16, 2008

Good to see ya GD.

:toast:

Railbird · Oct 16, 2008

Green D,

How much longer can we keep the Mountain West out of the bcs?

jwunderdog · Oct 16, 2008

You are going to need 12 of those 13 teams to lose 2 games before the MWC even gets a look when it comes to the BCS.

FairWarning · Oct 16, 2008

Wager type : Proposition/Future
Description : Football
NCAA Football
BCS National Champion
Utah +12500 </pre>

Mr.Smith · Oct 17, 2008

Florida State wins AGAIN.

Obviously they dumped vs Wake Forest in "The Sting" fashion and the odds on them dropped thru the floor from 60-1 to 1000-1. They had some people around Las Vegas snapping them up quietly, now they are running the table.