Battling the Books - regression to the mean coming?

[truthstorm]

Battling the Books: Two College Playoff Plays | Mar 13​

Last updated Mar 13, 2025

MAAC Quarterfinal Mt St Mary vs Marist
WAC Quarterfinal: Tarleton vs Cal Bap

If you’ve been following my basketball plays in the PredictEm forum you know I’ve latched on to a white hot system.
If you haven’t been following my basketball plays – why not?
I’m 26-22 in college and 7-5 in the pros, 55% combined, hitting my primary goals of:
1) Not losing (like 98% of sports bettors do)
and
2) Grinding out a profit.

In addition to my recommended plays, in just the last two days I’ve given out tips/angles/stat’s on games that I didn’t buy myself but went 1-0 in the NBA and 3-0 in college for four more winners. (I’ve been playing too tight lately, too conservative, I need to open it up and trust my numbers.)

But back to the white hot system.

I first brought attention to it a couple of days ago when it was at 1-8, giving me an 88% Fade.

That’s an unsustainable win percentage, right?
Regression to the mean is coming, right?

Well, since then I’ve been posting all plays that qualify in the forum and today it’s sitting at 2-14, good for an 87.5% Fade.

Again, that number is unsustainable but having banked a couple units by jumping on the streak early (instead of jumping on late when it’s already established and due to level out) I can play out the string until the record start to revert toward .500.

Jumping on trends that are already established is not the way to profitability (which is what many betters do, especially new ones – they look for trends to jump on or a hot handicapper to follow.)

Anticipating trends and getting on them early is how you make money in this game.

Of course that’s easier said than done.
In fact it’s very difficult.
But I’ve got a live one now, and got on it only nine games in.

It’s a simple system.
I have two methods I use to look for totals to play.
To keep things simple I’ll call them A and B.
When B says the game goes Over and A says it stays Under, B has a record of 2-14.

And when the differential between the stated total for both systems is 18 or greater the record is 0-3.
And I have one of those today.

Enough talk, let’s get to today’s two qualifying spots.
First up is Mt St Mary/Marist.
Game time 5:30 pm PST.
The line on this one opened at 126 and it’s down to 125′. Yeah the line looks pretty low but these two just played a few days ago and combined for 114 points. And in their only other meeting this year they combined for 103.
Average score per game 108.5.
That’s 16′ fewer than the number on tonight’s game

Next up, Tarleton/Cal Bap.
Game time 8:30 p.m. PST
This one opened at 127′ and that number is still readily available.
They played last week and combined for 116 points.
In their earlier meeting this year they combined for 124 points.
Average score 115 per game, 12′ points fewer than the number on today’s game.
And the point differential on this one is greater than 18, meaning it qualifies for the 0-3 subcategory noted above.
I may have one more play for today so be sure to check the forum.

Today’s plays:​

Mt St Mary/Marist Un 125′
Tarleton/Cal Bap Un 127′
College record (picks in articles): 1-3

​

 

[truthstorm]

And today's play was Grambling State/Alabama State under 127'.
The game landed on 126.
Play described in the article is now 19-2.
10 of the 21, including today's game, were posted, 9-1 record.

 

[Bruins4Life]

How does this help when you post the plays AFTER the games are over?

 

[n0rdwester]

Posting the results after the fact doesn’t really help anyone trying to follow along or make informed plays. If the system is as solid as you say, why not post all the picks in advance so people can actually track it in real time? It’s easy to talk about a 19-2 record when we’re only hearing about the wins after the fact.

Not saying you’re making things up, but if you’re trying to build credibility and get people to take your system seriously, transparency is key. Drop the plays before tip-off, let the results speak for themselves, and you’ll probably get more people actually buying into what you’re doing.

 

[mark1wi]

If the system is as good as you say, why not put the plays out ahead of time and let them stand on their own? It’s one thing to recap a strategy and break down why it worked, but just posting results after the fact doesn’t really help anyone looking to follow along.

Nobody’s doubting you went 19-2, but without timestamps on those picks, it’s hard to take it seriously. If you really believe in it, post everything before the games start, and then we’ll see how it plays out in real time. That’s the only way people will actually trust it enough to follow.

 

[truthstorm]

I don't normally reply because I don't read replies.
I don't post for conversation or discussions because in most forums many people aren't looking for adult conversation and debate on picks, handicapping, game analysis and money management. They post to try and convince others of how smart and superior they are. I have no time for insecure idiots.

I came here to drop a post today, wanted to reference something from my previous post, went to open it but opened into a reply instead, and read it.
So I thought just this once I'll read them, and answer questions/concerns since some seem legit and not the type I referenced above.

Nord,
I'm not looking to get anyone to buy into anything.
I'm not a tout wannabe, the picks are free and always will be.
I'm very altruistic by nature, I'm just sharing my years of experience as a sports bettor garnered from years of running the most popular sports book on the Vegas strip. It's common knowledge that 98% of sports betters lose, I'm simply trying to help people not lose their money, nothing more complicated, convoluted, or sinister than that.

Mark,
I didn't go 19-2 (I wish), the record for this particular handicapping model was 19-2. In fact, I posted my record, now 4-3, for picks I give out in my articles.
The plays are posted in advance (except for when they're new and no winning edge has been identified yet as I explained in the article that I posted here today. )

I came here and pointed out these methods and where to find them months ago.
Anyone who decided to take a few minutes to look into it has been able to see the picks and records (including yesterday's play which included not just reasons/analysis for the pick but also a "When to buy notice" that turned out to to be the difference between getting a winner and not losing, based on line movement.)
They can bet them if they choose to. Or not. Doesn't matter to me where people get their info from or what they bet on, I wish good luck to all sports bettors (except for touts, frauds, record cheaters and attention seeking gimps that pollute forums.)

Ten months of articles, only two with a losing record (one was 10-11 the other lost three units.) Hoping to keep it going, including the upcoming UFL and WNBA.

My articles (and posts) aren't for the limited attention span Twitter types.
They're NOT for those who are unrealistically looking to get rich from betting on sports.
They're NOT for those foolish enough to think they can quit their job and make a living betting on sports
They're for those who are looking for analysis and opinions on anticipated outcomes, those looking to grind out a profit and have some fun.

Good luck on your plays in the tournaments.