BASEBALL NUMBERS

[PeteRoseJR]

I like to use a numbers approach to baseball. What I am trying to find out is, what an average - decent outing is to you guys for a starting pitcher.
ie.... Innings pitched ___ 7 min
Earned Runs _____ 3 max
hits ___________5
k's ___________5 min
bb"s __________3 min
the fewer pitches the better as well.

This question may seem a bit odd but your input is greatly appreciated.I base all baseball wagers on the starting pitchers previous two outings.

augs15

 

[Mr.Jones]

Don't know that I can answer your questions augs 15. But judging from the info you are interested in you may be want to check out Phil Erwin's site www.baseball-insight.com, if you haven't done so already.

Not a tout at all but a great numbers guy, Phil was a neighborhood friend of mine back when we were kids and I can assure you that you won't find a more hard working straight shooter. Good info for a reasonable price. Lots of free stuff available too.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

MR JONES

thanks for the link, but it unfortunately didnt work...any other possible ones I can check out.do you bet baseball??

augs15

 

[Mr.Jones]

Sorry Augs. I noticed too that it didn't work right after I posted it. But if you look up Phil Erwin in a search engine you'll get in from there. I just did.

Yeah I do bet bases. Not as well as I'd like to. But yes I do.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Thanks MR JONES

when reviewing a game what do you think are critical stats for judging a pitchers outing

augs

 

[Horseshoe]

Portland-based Phil Erwin's Baseball-Insight is excellent, and I once subscribed to the papered mailout editions, although it has been duplicated since the advent of the internet(Don Best) and free sites in most content matter , but back in the early nineties his Left-Right, Day/Night, etc..stats often made for great capping, and were ahead of the curve..it still is a valuable tool for any serious baseball capper.

 

[exilarch]

The pitchers are there to get guys out. I rate starting pitchers based on how many outs they get per game,broken down into home and away.If a pitcher goes an average of 7 innings per game, he is getting 21 outs per game, and is rated higher than an SP who gets 20 outs per game .

 

[WildBill]

Your stats closely approximate the "quality start" statistic started by the master of baseball stats Bill James. There are a number of sites that list number of quality starts so it is not a difficult number to get to. Quality starts are very useful for handicapping because generic numbers like ERA or wins are skewed greatly by good and bad performances. What the bettor generally is looking for is a quality start as that means his pitcher will give him a chance to win the bet. If the pen blows it or the other pitcher has an even better game adds some variables, but still unless you are backing a big price pitcher, a Pedro or a Randy, then predicting and then receiving a quality start is a good result.