i havnt capped baseball before but before this season i have not capped college hoops either.since this site im 20-11 there 89-43 ytd.i was just wondering if anyone could point me in the direction of which stats are most valuable in making and testing out different systems?any help is appreciated.
In baseball don't hesitate to take the better team.
1. Don't be afraid to play heavy favorites, that is just the way baseball is. Better teams win the game most of the time, but of course not always.
2. Watch for teams to sweep their opponent. Pick a team you like for a 3 gm. series and take them every day. There are many big fav's that as they enter a series they will likely win 2 of 3, in this instance you will break even, but when the sweep goes down, you will clear a nice profit. Sweeps happen very often, but not from an underdogs point of veiw.
3. If you have a game you have to play but don't know who to take, take a lefthanded pitcher over the righty every time.
4. You must hit parlays in order to be profitable. I don't mean crazy 7-teamers, but some 2 or 3 teamers to get a decent payoff for your risk.
5. Never lay the run and a half (-1.5) on a straight wager. Why ever turn a winning play into a loser because your team won by 1? Keep in mind that teams play to win the game by 1, e.g. a leadoff walk in ninth with a two run lead is apt to score.
6. Don't ever take a team just because they are at home. Road teams win a ton in baseball.
Good luck. Baseball is fun as hell and you can win big at it. i gotta go watch the Pistons smoke the Lakers, but I will write more later.
Godspeed, Thepig.
1. Don't be afraid to play heavy favorites, that is just the way baseball is. Better teams win the game most of the time, but of course not always.
2. Watch for teams to sweep their opponent. Pick a team you like for a 3 gm. series and take them every day. There are many big fav's that as they enter a series they will likely win 2 of 3, in this instance you will break even, but when the sweep goes down, you will clear a nice profit. Sweeps happen very often, but not from an underdogs point of veiw.
3. If you have a game you have to play but don't know who to take, take a lefthanded pitcher over the righty every time.
4. You must hit parlays in order to be profitable. I don't mean crazy 7-teamers, but some 2 or 3 teamers to get a decent payoff for your risk.
5. Never lay the run and a half (-1.5) on a straight wager. Why ever turn a winning play into a loser because your team won by 1? Keep in mind that teams play to win the game by 1, e.g. a leadoff walk in ninth with a two run lead is apt to score.
6. Don't ever take a team just because they are at home. Road teams win a ton in baseball.
Good luck. Baseball is fun as hell and you can win big at it. i gotta go watch the Pistons smoke the Lakers, but I will write more later.
Godspeed, Thepig.
haha yeah they did smoke the lakers and the lakers have it coming.i am a fan but the moves they have made mitch kupchak should be hung.he is the worst general manager ever.shaq was right they are fat.as for baseball ty for the advice i will keep it in mind and hope many many units to ev1 this season.
thepig,
thats the dumbest info on baseball capping i have ever seen in my life....never play favorites and never play parlays and you will come ahead....focus on starting pitching.....pitching...pitching
chalk will kill you.....it sucks that after u lose a game you need a minimum of 2 to just break even.....playing dogs you need 1 win after a loss to show a profit...you make the choice.
thats the dumbest info on baseball capping i have ever seen in my life....never play favorites and never play parlays and you will come ahead....focus on starting pitching.....pitching...pitching
chalk will kill you.....it sucks that after u lose a game you need a minimum of 2 to just break even.....playing dogs you need 1 win after a loss to show a profit...you make the choice.
BoZZi said:
What I do, and the way I recordkeep, is give equal preference of one unit to a favorite (usually -140 is the highest chalk I consider) as I do with an underdog. If the favorite loses, I lose just $100. If I win, I gain +.71 unit. And of course if my underdog wins, then it's a gain of over +1 unit. If you keep this in perspective, you should have a clearer conscience of dealing with favorites and chalk. I don't know why bettors get all caught up with "now that my -200 favorite bit the dust, I have to win 3 more games just to get back to even."
it doesnt matter how u do it....if you lose a -200 chalk....u need to win 2 games at -200 to break even no matter what way u use
lets say u lose the first one....ur -1
u win second one ur +.5....one more ur +.5 again which brings u back to even.....i play a +200 dog.....its the opposite....1-2 is good enough to break even
lets say u lose the first one....ur -1
u win second one ur +.5....one more ur +.5 again which brings u back to even.....i play a +200 dog.....its the opposite....1-2 is good enough to break even
Yea Bozzi, I'm sure that you are a legendary Dog player in baseball. the guy asked for some pointers, I told him what works for me. I have had some outstanding runs playing favorites.
Pitching is very important, but often the games winds up in the hands of an unrested bullpen anyway.
I'll see what you have to say down the road before I get to concerned about you calling me dumb.
Godspped, Thepig.
Pitching is very important, but often the games winds up in the hands of an unrested bullpen anyway.
I'll see what you have to say down the road before I get to concerned about you calling me dumb.
Godspped, Thepig.
BoZZi said:
That's probably what screws up your psyche is you think you have to dig out of a hole because you lost a favorite. I just don't see prescribing to that philosophy in favorites vs. underdogs in baseball (and moneylines in other sports). What you are doing is you are letting the house (bookie) get you down with his rules.
If you really want to offset the screwed up payouts in chalk betting, always consider runline bets. There are golden opportunities in run-line situations- I wouldnt necessarily consider offsetting a Randy Johnson vs. TB Devil Ray -300 with a -160 -1.5 runline, but if a certain situation warrants a high percentage result, find out how to identify those situations.
i dont have to dig myself out of a whole because like i said i dont even consider playing favorites even for a second because thats what they want you to do....and ask any succesfull bases capper on here if they even consider betting on randy johnson unless he is at least under -200.
kodiak showed a couple of years ago what can happen when u go crazy with favorites and he is a very solid capper
kodiak showed a couple of years ago what can happen when u go crazy with favorites and he is a very solid capper
Stats
OPS is the best freely available stat to look at when it comes to offensive production, it correlates to run production much more than a stat like Batting Avg. In fact, you can basically disregard all the other traditional offensive stats.
When looking at pitchers I like to see how they have done against the opposing lineup according to OPS. An OPS of .800 or greater is solid for the offensive players, but you want to see a high number of at-bats. A player who has a .950 OPS in 7 at-bats against a pitcher is less impressive than a hitter with a .875 OPS in 70 at-bats. You can trust the .875 hitter's production to a higher degree.
In addition to OPS against, when evaluating pitchers you want to look at stats like DIPS ERA, a stat found on the ESPN site for one. These stats will alert you to pitchers who are pitching better or worse than their ERA would indicate. Pay special attention to park effects, a pitcher in SD can have a misleadingly low ERA while a pitcher in ARI can have a misleadingly high one. Also, when looking at present form of a pitcher check his recent strikeout, walk, and home run rates and see if they are improving or not.
As far as bullpens go it can be time consuming to track the 4 or 5 pitchers who might get in a given game. Some sites provide some info on days rest, etc. If you have the time you want to incorporate this into your capping but if not just try and keep a general idea of whether the bullpen has been good or bad, without delving too deep into the specifics.
There are some good resources available like Baseball Forecaster and Baseball Prospectus that can provide more predictive stats, but their sites have a small yearly fee that some people might rather not pay. They are not gambling sites by the way, they are tailored to general baseball analysis and fantasy baseball, so you won't see any stats regarding a record vs. the spread.
OPS is the best freely available stat to look at when it comes to offensive production, it correlates to run production much more than a stat like Batting Avg. In fact, you can basically disregard all the other traditional offensive stats.
When looking at pitchers I like to see how they have done against the opposing lineup according to OPS. An OPS of .800 or greater is solid for the offensive players, but you want to see a high number of at-bats. A player who has a .950 OPS in 7 at-bats against a pitcher is less impressive than a hitter with a .875 OPS in 70 at-bats. You can trust the .875 hitter's production to a higher degree.
In addition to OPS against, when evaluating pitchers you want to look at stats like DIPS ERA, a stat found on the ESPN site for one. These stats will alert you to pitchers who are pitching better or worse than their ERA would indicate. Pay special attention to park effects, a pitcher in SD can have a misleadingly low ERA while a pitcher in ARI can have a misleadingly high one. Also, when looking at present form of a pitcher check his recent strikeout, walk, and home run rates and see if they are improving or not.
As far as bullpens go it can be time consuming to track the 4 or 5 pitchers who might get in a given game. Some sites provide some info on days rest, etc. If you have the time you want to incorporate this into your capping but if not just try and keep a general idea of whether the bullpen has been good or bad, without delving too deep into the specifics.
There are some good resources available like Baseball Forecaster and Baseball Prospectus that can provide more predictive stats, but their sites have a small yearly fee that some people might rather not pay. They are not gambling sites by the way, they are tailored to general baseball analysis and fantasy baseball, so you won't see any stats regarding a record vs. the spread.
I noticed someone said dont play parlays or lay the 1 /12 runs. I think in the A.L. the 1 /2 runs are less of an issue as they tend to score more on balance. Instead of laying 1.80 or more I prefer to take the minus run and half for positive or 1.15-1 money. Also like to parlay with the over in the a.l. In the n.l I like road dogs and over as a parlay. I toss out Col and Montr(now wash) and it works out on balance slightly. just a couple of thoughts. I prefer totals on balance and some teams can be terific overs at home and terrific unders on the road. texas is a good over home team and a terrible road team a much better under. good luck all.
