Hey guys,
First I apologize for the length of the post but i am stumped and need your help.
I have developed a very complicated formula for bases this year that basically gives me the amount of runs a team should give up per game and the amount that they should get.
However here is where i am stuck.
Lets say that my formula is telling me that the starting pitcher for the Yankees on an average night will give up a run per 2.1 innings pitched.
Lets also say that on average their bullpen will give up a run per 2.0 innings pitched.
Also, on an average night the Starting Pitcher will pitch 7.0 innings.
Since the Yankees are the home team, they will pitch 9 innings.
Starting Pitcher = 7 innings / run per 2.1 innings = 3 Runs
Bullpen = 2 innings / run per 2.0 innings = 1 run
So therefore the Yankees should give up on average 4 runs per game.
Thats the first half.
The second is the batting of the Red Sox.
Lets say that my formula gives me that the Sox should score an average of 6 runs per game...
Now any person who can count would tell you that on average that the Sox should score 5 runs in this game (4 runs from Yankees pitching + 6 runs from Sox offense / 2).
BUT... Do you think that more of the percentage should be given to the pitching or the offense?
In my opinion, it should be about 66% pitching to 34% offense. Or basically 2 to one on the pitching.
In this case the Sox should score on average 4.67 runs.
(4 runsx2 +6 runsx1 = 14runs / 3 = 4.67)
My question to you, what percentage should the pitching be given compared to the offense?
Also, how much factor would you put into homefield?
Thanks guys
First I apologize for the length of the post but i am stumped and need your help.
I have developed a very complicated formula for bases this year that basically gives me the amount of runs a team should give up per game and the amount that they should get.
However here is where i am stuck.
Lets say that my formula is telling me that the starting pitcher for the Yankees on an average night will give up a run per 2.1 innings pitched.
Lets also say that on average their bullpen will give up a run per 2.0 innings pitched.
Also, on an average night the Starting Pitcher will pitch 7.0 innings.
Since the Yankees are the home team, they will pitch 9 innings.
Starting Pitcher = 7 innings / run per 2.1 innings = 3 Runs
Bullpen = 2 innings / run per 2.0 innings = 1 run
So therefore the Yankees should give up on average 4 runs per game.
Thats the first half.
The second is the batting of the Red Sox.
Lets say that my formula gives me that the Sox should score an average of 6 runs per game...
Now any person who can count would tell you that on average that the Sox should score 5 runs in this game (4 runs from Yankees pitching + 6 runs from Sox offense / 2).
BUT... Do you think that more of the percentage should be given to the pitching or the offense?
In my opinion, it should be about 66% pitching to 34% offense. Or basically 2 to one on the pitching.
In this case the Sox should score on average 4.67 runs.
(4 runsx2 +6 runsx1 = 14runs / 3 = 4.67)
My question to you, what percentage should the pitching be given compared to the offense?
Also, how much factor would you put into homefield?
Thanks guys