Baseball experts: Is betting baseball all about price?

[austintx05]

For those who consider themselves baseball guru's, what is your take on betting this sport? Just bet on price, or do you factor in other situations.

I'm not the best baseball guy by any means and would love to learn from the more experienced bettors.

Thanks. :toast:

 

[buffettgambler]

Can you be more specific when you say "factor in other situations".

 

[JakeT.]

Yeah, what do you mean "factor in other situations"? I factor in all game-related situations before setting my personal price and then bet the game if there is enough of a difference between my number and the actual number...

 

[Georgiaboy]

Yes its all about price. I never lay more than -160 on any baseball game. FWIW, my local doesn't do run lines.

 

[austintx05]

what I mean is do you take into account, weather, ball park, ump, lefty vs righty, streaks etc. Or when you see the line, if you say a side is over/undervalued and bet it accordingly.

 

[NoPartials]

NEVER go against a streak.
The very best team <TABLE class=standingsTable id=standingsTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY id=alw><TR class=data id=ana_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=alw_team_0 width=90>Los Angeles</TD><TD class="" id=alw_w_0>100</TD><TD class="" id=alw_l_0>62</TD><TD class="" id=alw_pct_0>.617</TD><TD class="" id=alw_gb_0>-</TD><TD class="" id=alw_elim_0>-</TD><TD class="" id=alw_last10_0>7-3</TD><TD class="" id=alw_strk_0>W1</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_vsE_0>30-16</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_vsC_0>24-17</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_vsW_0>36-21</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_interleague_0>10-8</TD><TD class="" id=alw_home_0>50-31</TD><TD class="" id=alw_road_0>50-31</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_vsR_0>67-46</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_vsL_0>33-16</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_xtr_0>3-5</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_onerun_0>31-21</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_rs_0>765</TD><TD class=permOff id=alw_ra_0>697</TD><TD class="" id=alw_xwl_0>88-74</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

only won 61.7% of their games.
Be selective, follow bull pens; today's starters only go 5 innings.

 

[jtc1984]

Price is just one of the many variables considered....

 

[JakeT.]

what I mean is do you take into account, weather, ball park, ump, lefty vs righty, streaks etc. Or when you see the line, if you say a side is over/undervalued and bet it accordingly.

Oh absolutely. Ballpark factors in for sure, lefty versus righty as well. Streaks and weather to a lesser extent. Weather is often overvalued. I don't deal with umpires at all unless it's one of the more extreme umps that has shown years of consistency in their calls. It's all figured in to how I set the price to various extents.

 

[buffettgambler]

The role of the fundamental handicapper in baseball is to quantify the chance a particular team has of winning a game, comparing that forecast with the market price, and betting any disparity (a disparity that fits his risk/return objectives) that allots a perceived edge for the handicapper. How does one go about quantifying the chance a team has of winning a game? By quantifying any and all variables that have a material influence on the outcome of the game (and to the extent of their influence).
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So in answer to your question- Price is Everything, but to accurately derive a price, one has to quantify the situational factors that you mention (and all the others). Looking at a line and merely saying it “looks” overvalued is a sure way to risk of ruin. Betting a team simply because of streaks or the lefty/righty matchup is as well. The market efficiency combined with vigorous is too strong to overcome for such a superficial approach.
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Best of luck this season.

 

[JakeT.]

The role of the fundamental handicapper in baseball is to quantify the chance a particular team has of winning a game, comparing that forecast with the market price, and betting any disparity (a disparity that fits his risk/return objectives) that allots a perceived edge for the handicapper. How does one go about quantifying the chance a team has of winning a game? By quantifying any and all variables that have a material influence on the outcome of the game (and to the extent of their influence).
<o> </o>
So in answer to your question- Price is Everything, but to accurately derive a price, one has to quantify the situational factors that you mention (and all the others). Looking at a line and merely saying it “looks” overvalued is a sure way to risk of ruin. Betting a team simply because of streaks or the lefty/righty matchup is as well. The market efficiency combined with vigorous is too strong to overcome for such a superficial approach.
<o> </o>
Best of luck this season.

You make it sound much better then I do haha. :toast:

 

[jtc1984]

Wow...buffet gambler....well put...i failed Geometry but my daughter has a Masters in math so i kinda understand....

 

[billhill999]

Yes its all about price. I never lay more than -160 on any baseball game. FWIW, my local doesn't do run lines.

Exactly, I try not to lay more than -150.
It's all about pitching, both starting and 'pens.

 

[smartz]

Yes its all about price. I never lay more than -160 on any baseball game. FWIW, my local doesn't do run lines.

thats a retarded approach

 

[jtc1984]

never say never

 

[Noctran]

Hello , i was a young guy 18 year old (23 now) when i discovered baseball betting ...
In the first season, i follow some cappers (hitting 55%) , my season was up but not a big winning year..
In August , i followed the odds movement and it was very interesting , odds on fav didn't have lot of movements because when they are big fav you don't have any value...LAA at home with Lackey for example
But on decent fav you clearly have odds movement and you can see where is the money when a line move in all the books...underdog too ...
When i saw this thing i was up but not so far so i was looking for picking those games , and i was pretty good for a beginner .... ( wagerline help me too)
The season ended with a big playoffs , i tried to sell my picks because i was hitting 60-62% on the season playing on O/U and dog too but i wasn't on the business and it wasn't very interesting...i did a free blog too
I saw lot of games , looking for stats over the pitcher , and lot of kind of stats home winning,h2h,sweep,bullpenn...And it's clearly for me the most easiest sports to pick...
No problem if you need help,pm me if you want...
I just try to tell you that i am in France and the baseball is one of the less viewed sports and my english is bad so far so it's possible to do money on this sports...
If you don't care about picking game , follow some guys which have wonderful season like : Andrew powers (114-52 68%),the best in youwinnow.com is Wizard of Odds 96-37 72% picking fav i know but run line and total too...

 

[JakeT.]

I don't understand this "don't bet above -150 or 160" thing...

If there is value then I'm betting it even if it's -400. If my personal number says it should be -480 and it's -400, I'm betting it no matter what.

 

[Noctran]

in the long term i don't think betting those kind of odds will be very profitable