Bar n Grill - Sept 2008 NFL

[barman]

PASTING in copies of my disappeared Thread which I handily copied to the one other forum to which I post selections.
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Much in the manner of my ongoing MLB Thread and my late season NHL Thread, I will be posting in NFL and measuring progress via the use of a Mythical Bank.

Assigned wager amounts are designed to correspond in best money management fashion with the size of the MB. Interested readers can adjust their own wager amounts proportionately based on their own real life banks.

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Beginning Bank = $300

 

[barman]

COPY of my Sep 4 post at TheRx

Thursday, Sep 4

2TeamParlay

(booked at Outlaw this past Monday)

GIANT -190 vs Skin
VIKING +120 at Pack

Lay 10
Pays 23.58
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Best to us all for a profitable September

 

[barman]

Sunday, Sep 7

2TeamParlay

PANTHER +9 (-110) at Bolt
SAINT -3 (-120) vs Buc

Lay 10
Pays 25.00
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[barman]

Sunday, Sep 7

Following selections all straight for $7

CROW +115 vs Bengal
FISH +130 vs J-E-T-S
BIRD +150 vs Lion
NINER +120 vs Cardinal

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[artiesliver]

Nice call on the Panthers B'man.

 

[barman]

nice av....tuned out of Domer radio feed late Saturday afternoon with them still trailing...glad to see they rallied

Came darn close here to an 18x1 payout on a big $5 2teamer I lobbed up for SD Pads +310 vs Sabbathia in tandem with Carolina +370.

Go Vikes

 

[barman]

Week One summary

5-3 (+19.55)

Bank Balance 319.55
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[barman]

Biggest risk in early going of NFL season based on my past few years is my having a good Week One....heh

Last season the first ever where I stopped actively wagering on NFL in late November (turning focus to NBA and NHL) and I had a modest profit going.

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Sunday, Sept 14

Played these today, all straight for $9

(lines from Outlaw.com)

THE GREATNESS +3.5 (-110) at Chief

Hat tip here to ProfessorRick with the nice Angle he illustrates applying to both SF and OAK this week. Unfortunately, I can for the moment only get Niners at +7, so may well Pass that one. But the Oakland holds strong and given their poor first half Monday in combination with a slightly illusionary performance from Chiefs at NewEngland, we like this one just fine with the field goal and hook.

CARDINAL -6.5 (-110) vs Fish

Not really sure how much if at all the Dolphins will score playing their first Away game versus the Home Opener of the Zonas.

Kurt Warner with just a single TD pass in WeekOne. Last season in seven home games he fired 14 TDs vs just seven picks for an overall QB rating of 98.8

This one a good case I think of a non-playoff team from last year not being viewed as worthy of a bigger favorite number even though they're playing what could arguably be a team that only wins three or four games this year.

SAINT pk (-110) at Skin

New Orleans since losing their first four games last year is now 8-5 and they've figured out how to overcome the absence of Deuce McAllister. Give Pete Thomas a dozen or more carries and thus help open up Reggie Bush for 20+ touches and suddenly opposing secondaries are going to be caught in way too many man to man coverages versus a bevy of good receivers.

Colston injury a drag, but let's face it. The Saints have at least four downfield threats remaining and they've got Brees who with downfall of Tom Brady may now be one of top three QBs in the NFL.

On the other side, Skins benefit from being at Home for Opener, but hey they really really blow. If they can force at least two defensive big plays they might....might compete here. But failing that, this should be solid 24-13 style win for New Orleans.

 

[barman]

Two more, also for $9

BEAR/CAT Undah 37 (-110)

Another hat tip to ProfessorRick for the Totals Angle he details in his Week2 thread. Combine that with one more week of missing Steve Smith and though the Panthers are improved by return of healthy Jake, their ability to go downfield should be quite hampered.

Take away the defensive fumble return and the literal last second TD pass from Jake in San Diego and the Panthers are yet to offer up much offensive threat. Meanwhile, Bears on road with their own lack of downfield passing game and an improved rushing game should further help the cl-ock (smile) roll in this one.

And in same vein

CROW/TEXAN Undah 37.5 (-110)

Substitute Baltimore for Chicago in this one and consider that Houston has their own lack of downfield passing and we like this one to come out in similar fashion to the game above.

Seems kind of tough we'd miss 'em both, eh?

BEST to all of us for a profitable WeekTwo

 

[PokerKingJim]

Love the Cardinals this week. I'm going to tease them with a few other games - don't see them losing here. Good luck this year Barman. Hope all is well :toast:

 

[barman]

Sep 14 summary

2-1 (+8.10)
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[barman]

Monday, Sep 15

EAGLE +270 at Poke $8

Prop Bets

SCORE FIRST? Eagles +140 $5

Total FGs in game? Over 3.5 +160 $5

Best to us all for a profitable Monday night

 

[barman]

Sep 15 summary

2-1 (+7.00)

WEEK ONE 5-3 (+19.55)
WEEK TWO 4-2 (+15.10)

New Bank Balance 334.65

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[Gumbi]

Definitely liking this thread. Gl this year Barman.

 

[barman]

Thanks Gumbi. NFL has always been my toughest sport to beat and last season was first in which I shut down (in late November) with a plus balance. I've been trying to pay attention to people who are smarter than me on this and will poke along and see if I can keep ahead again this year.

 

[barman]

Early bites for

Sunday, Sep 21

CROW -2 (-110) vs Brown $9

Two weeks between games and facing a familiar divisional foe, I'm kinda thinking the Ravens can stifle the recently neutered Brownies to 14 or less which leaves us needing just 17 from a superior ground game and the reliable Matt Stover.

BEAR -3 (-110) vs Buc $7

Tampa Bay's past 17 Away games vs teams other than NO and ATL have averaged a meager 12 pts a game. One exception? Oddly enough, a late 2006 game at Chicago where they notched 31 pts.

Given the 18 game sample and only one such burst, we'll consider that one a severe anomaly and look for them to struggle to top 14 here.

If we give the Bears a shot at being a winning team during this coming season, we can further mix in the Buc's utter ineptitude under Jon Gruden vs teams who finish with a winning record. Last year TBay only garnered one win vs a team who finished above .500 (Tennessee with injured Vince Young).

Laying a smaller amount in anticipation of using CHI ml in some kind of parlay.

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And for Monday, Sep 22

J-E-T-S/BOLT Over 44 (-110) $7

Digging the Jets to push 20 here and with the Line Match and a possibly hobbled LT, the Chargers have to pass a bit more than usual.

 

[artiesliver]

Nice goin' so far in NFL B'man.

 

[barman]

Sep 21 summary

1-1 (+1.30)

 

[barman]

Mon, Sep 22

J-E-T-S +8.5 (-110) at Bolt $6

Longest Score in game = JETS (+135) $5

Most Gross Passing Yards = FAVRE -10.5 (+110) $5
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[barman]

damn...another three yds and that NYJ kick return woulda been Prop $$$