Bama vs OSU easy money

[Codebreaker]

OSU's defense is ranked 103 in passing yards, they are giving up 261 yards per game. they gave up 400 to TL

Bama offensive passing game is ranked 5th, averaging 354.

Vegas's Algos are saying high scoring game, the total is 76, that's the highest for either team this year. Uf/Bama was closest at 74. The total ended up at 98, +24 over.

If you're telling me Bama's defense is vulnerable, this game will break the century mark.

 

[Codebreaker]

Pre hit last week, Fields had 6 runs for 53 yards, no sacks, 92% completions. Post hit he had zero runs, 2 sacks and a pick, 61%

Venables took a chance with Skulski, when he ordered the hit. Losing Skulski ended any chance Clemson had to hold OSU to 33 or less points.

Bama has a dozen Skulski's, obviously that hit impaired Fields, though he still hit some nice bombs, his running threat was ended.

I think OSU put everything into the Clemson game knowing how they were beat last year. Etienne and TL were not going to beat them running the ball, CU only 44 yards rushing. Congrats OSU you beat Clemson, now you get Alabama. Let down coming?

Fields is going to get tattooed in this game, if Bama can keep him in the pocket, their mission has gotten a lot easier. Fields will have to pull a Trask, UF down field effort to stay in this game. Can he do it twice in a row? Bama's front 7 is better then Clemson, and a lot better without Skulski.

 

[Meano]

Pre hit last week, Fields had 6 runs for 53 yards, no sacks, 92% completions. Post hit he had zero runs, 2 sacks and a pick, 61%

Venables took a chance with Skulski, when he ordered the hit. Losing Skulski ended any chance Clemson had to hold OSU to 33 or less points.

Bama has a dozen Skulski's, obviously that hit impaired Fields, though he still hit some nice bombs, his running threat was ended.

I think OSU put everything into the Clemson game knowing how they were beat last year. Etienne and TL were not going to beat them running the ball, CU only 44 yards rushing. Congrats OSU you beat Clemson, now you get Alabama. Let down coming?

Fields is going to get tattooed in this game, if Bama can keep him in the pocket, their mission has gotten a lot easier. Fields will have to pull a Trask, UF down field effort to stay in this game. Can he do it twice in a row? Bama's front 7 is better then Clemson, and a lot better without Skulski.

So, what are you, personally, wagering on??? You make statements leading the reader to believe one way. But just so nobody gets confused reading thru the many narratives in the multiple posts what side and or total is codebreaker betting on?

 

[Codebreaker]

Take the over 75 and Bama -7. Both defenses have deficiencies that these high powered offenses can exploit. The only games that did not cover the over vs Bama were vs teams that could not score points. With or without Fields, OSU is going to score 35+. With CU, even holding them to 44 yards rushing, CU got 28 points and 400 yards passing. The Total in that game was 69, it was covered by 8 points.

Of course the total is determined by the OC calling plays. Maybe one team or both teams decide, a clock melting run game is the best way to win. Vegas believes that won't happen, at 75 this is the highest Total either team has faced all season. With Sermon and Fields racking up over 600 yards in offense vs CU, I can't see Saban game planning like the ND game.

I read sharps are on the under, the public is on the over, 75 is a lot of points, you can always buy it down 7 points.

BOL

 

[varkeyboy]

Buy a total down 7 points? Lol.

And who is the BACKUP QB for OSU?

 

[Codebreaker]

VB, you on the over, or did you buy it down? hehe

Bama -7.5 or OSU +7.5?

OSU back-up won't matter, he'll be 4-5 star, and prepared to play if needed. With 3 others in line for their shot to play.

 

[razorbackpicks]

Pre hit last week, Fields had 6 runs for 53 yards, no sacks, 92% completions. Post hit he had zero runs, 2 sacks and a pick, 61%

Venables took a chance with Skulski, when he ordered the hit. Losing Skulski ended any chance Clemson had to hold OSU to 33 or less points.

Bama has a dozen Skulski's, obviously that hit impaired Fields, though he still hit some nice bombs, his running threat was ended.

I think OSU put everything into the Clemson game knowing how they were beat last year. Etienne and TL were not going to beat them running the ball, CU only 44 yards rushing. Congrats OSU you beat Clemson, now you get Alabama. Let down coming?

Fields is going to get tattooed in this game, if Bama can keep him in the pocket, their mission has gotten a lot easier. Fields will have to pull a Trask, UF down field effort to stay in this game. Can he do it twice in a row? Bama's front 7 is better then Clemson, and a lot better without Skulski.

Ordered the hit? You mean enables knew Fields was going to run at that very moment, told Skalski to line him up 15 yards past the Line Of Scrimmage in a back side exposed rib shot?

Or are you egotistically saying in game prep that Venables told his entire defense if fields runs and you get a chance, make him feel it... Just like any DC does every week against a QB?

 

[razorbackpicks]

Take the over 75 and Bama -7. Both defenses have deficiencies that these high powered offenses can exploit. The only games that did not cover the over vs Bama were vs teams that could not score points. With or without Fields, OSU is going to score 35+. With CU, even holding them to 44 yards rushing, CU got 28 points and 400 yards passing. The Total in that game was 69, it was covered by 8 points.

Of course the total is determined by the OC calling plays. Maybe one team or both teams decide, a clock melting run game is the best way to win. Vegas believes that won't happen, at 75 this is the highest Total either team has faced all season. With Sermon and Fields racking up over 600 yards in offense vs CU, I can't see Saban game planning like the ND game.

I read sharps are on the under, the public is on the over, 75 is a lot of points, you can always buy it down 7 points.

BOL

I could see the under hitting in a 60 point type game. The angle to that happening is pretty simple, Saban is going to want to keep the ball out of OSU offense hands. Of course he is going to want to take his shots, but if OSU has the ball the same time Notre dame does at the end of the first half, Bama is in trouble. Bama can play a more Dink and dunk offense while protecting his defense. In the same breath, OSU may also want to protect Fields and use sermon and crew on short plays. Both defenses back 7 tackle in open field well and should be able to contain the play makers from busting 5 yard plays in to 20 and so on.

On the other hand, hoping Sark after Dark doesn't want to go out in style and let Jones and Smith have a record game is scary.

 

[VegasKnows]

Interesting game. Saban coasted against ND, no doubt. Ohio State had a "breakout" game against Clemson, no doubt.
So now what happens?
First of all, IMO, (for what that's worth) watched Fields for two years now. He milks every injury like it's career ending then jumps up and throws lasers, yeah right. I don't think he is hurt. Bruise, sure, but that's about it. So confident he is 100%.

Ryan Day's style is to beat you at the line of scrimmage, force you to commit to the run and then beat you over the top with elite WR's and very accurate QB. (By the way backup QB is Gunner Hoak-very average, and then freshmean CJ Stroud, one rush for 48 yds)
As soon as Bama loads the box to stop the run Fields will be passing the ball. Very, very balanced offense!!! Avg 272 rushing/272 passing. Sermon at RB came on late this year and has been a big weapon. Even though the Buckeyes like to run they still can score in a hurry. The 2nd quarter is usually the quarter where they seperate themselves from their opponent. (score in bunches)

On defense the Buckeyes have been suspect all year against the pass, but they stop the run forcing teams to become one dimentional and then they tee-off on the QB. If Bama handles the blitzes they will be moving up and down the field. If not, they maybe in for a long night.
Ohio State had a fantastic Defensive Coordinator last year by the name of Jeff Hafley. He became head coach of Boston College. The Buckeyes called upon him the week before Clemson for advice, you saw what happened. Am sure they're talking to him again.

Of course Saban & company know all this too and will have a game plan accordingly. Their strength is scoring in bunches, weakness is defense.
With these two teams no lead is safe. If Ohio State jumps out to a 2-score or more lead Day will run more for sure but still will pass when it's there. And if the Buckeyes have success running the ball they will keep running the ball. If Bama jumps out to 2-score or more lead will Saban slow it down like against ND?? I don't think so. Buckeyes stop the run, force the pass, and has very dangerous offense, Saban should keep pedal to the metal attacking the Buckeye weakness, protecting his.

Then we have all the intangables; Will ref's call PI on everything? Let everything go? How about turnovers? Special Teams? TARGETING!!!! Who gets tossed out! Rarely offense, mostly defense.

I'm leaning Bama and the Over. I may tease Bama -2.5 with over.....say 69-72, have to see what payout I get. Also a straight Over 76.5 even if it is less than that. (Seeing key numbers of 70 & 77 here.)
Prop bets will get a good look over too.
--Scoring last two minutes before half-Yes.
--Yards passing?
--Sermon rushing?
--Harris rushing?
--etc,etc
Will be checking these out for sure.

Good Luck!!

 

[VegasKnows]

One more thing.........................................COVID!!
It has been reported that Ohio State has COVID issues with a specific position group. Who, I don't know. As soon as that comes out, most likely Monday, odds may move again.
Most of the starting O-line has already had it, so assume it's not there.
I may end up playing small now with the Over and then waiting day of for the rest of my plays.

 

[Codebreaker]

Good info and write-ups. A 60 point total would surprise Vegas. At 76 it's the highest total either team has had this year. The other two highest totals on Bama's games was 74. Granted UF and Miss don't have OSU's defense. Nor do they have OSU's offense.

If Bama can't slow Sermon, Jones will throw for 400 yards+, If OSU can't slow Harris, Fields will throw for 400+. Both teams have the OL and skill players to score 80+ thru the air if need be.

I don't think Bama has the defense for a slug fest. Jones will be throwing all night. OSU is ranked 103 giving up 268 thru the air, because teams have had to throw on OSU. They are ranked 7th at 97 yards on the ground. Jones has the OL and WR's to score plenty, as we've seen all season. If Waddle is back they are even more loaded.

Should be a great game, the odds favor the over, Bama cannot win a slug fest, so they won't try. Luckily they have the QB, OL and WR's, so they don't have to try.

thanks for the insights, hope this thread is helpful.

 

[Codebreaker]

Bama already has 35, the only games Bama failed to cover the over in were vs teams that could not score more then 17.

OSU is at 17, they have a whole half to get at least 2 TD's. Bama is scoring every 5 mins. I'm not sure they will slow that pace down til late 4Q.

I'm guessing 55-35, unless some freaky stuff, injuries, ect.

Fields is clearly not running today, he is avoiding contact, as the game wears on he'll be making business decisions regarding risking big hits.

BOL the rest of they way