Baltimore Ravens vs San Diego Chargers 11/25/2012

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Expect a close game with the Baltimore Ravens winning 54% of simulations, and the San Diego Chargers 45% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Baltimore Ravens commit fewer turnovers in 50% of simulations and they go on to win 76% when they take care of the ball. The San Diego Chargers wins 68% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Ray Rice is averaging 67 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 77%. Philip Rivers is averaging 262 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (24% chance) then he helps his team win 59%.
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