Balt/Pitt with analysis

[sherwood]

Baltimore +1.80 over PITTSBURGH
Take the points if you wish, as five is a pretty sweet number, however, we’re playing the Ravens straight up and here’s why: For one, the Ravens are 2-0 and although they beat Cincinnati and Cleveland, they didn’t just beat those two teams, they dominated from start to finish. After losing to the Ravens in week one, the Bengals have still not recovered, as this Baltimore team physically abused them. The thinking for a lot of people is that Joe Flacco might be too green and too intimidated for this stage but we completely disagree. Some athlete’s have “it” and Joe Flacco is one of those guys that just makes those around him better. He has a great arm, he has poise and confidence and he hits his receivers with precision. He’s also very calm in the pocket and overall his whole demeanor is calm and very cool. If you think he’ll get rattled, think again, because he won’t. The Ravens 2-0 start is no fluke, nor is it an aberration. The Ravens are for real with a tremendous looking defense, great special teams and a sound and methodical offense to compliment the rest. The Steelers lone lost came at Philly and the 15-6 final looks ok on paper but make no mistake about it, that score was extremely flattering to the Steelers. They were dominated badly and it looked like they were playing two men on the offensive line to protect Roethlisberger. They had an opening day victory against the winless Texans and then they barely beat Cleveland 10-6. Combined, the two teams the Steelers beat have a 1-7 record. The Steelers identity for years has been one of a great defense with a strong running game. Well, they have a very average defense, no proven runner, an O-line that has no chance of protecting Big Ben and thus, they have no identity. Despite a modest 2-1 record, the Steelers are in trouble, big trouble and it says here that the Ravens are the superior team with a great mindset. They’ll come in here focused, confident and ready to make a statement with their new QB. Ravens outright. Play: Baltimore +1.80 (Risking 2 units).

 

[citylinesports]

# Ravens are 0-8 ATS on the road since 2007.
# Ravens are 5-18 ATS after a home game since 2005.
# Steelers are 9-3 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 12 instances.

 

[Coldweather]

Good luck. Nice wright-up.

:toast::toast:

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Who is "we"?

 

[6er]

this guy must be royalty ?

 

[CaptFlippy]

You make some good points Sherwood! I have been leaning Pitt but I am starting to have thoughts, Cityline's post also has credibility. Good Luck tonight!

 

[boombaby]

They beat cleveland and cinn.and they both are pitiful!Im on balt. small but untill they play a quality team i would be cautious.

 

[FearTheRaven]

Go Ravens!!

 

[emmitt22]

go baltimore!!!!

 

[sherwood]

# Ravens are 0-8 ATS on the road since 2007.
# Ravens are 5-18 ATS after a home game since 2005.
# Steelers are 9-3 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 12 instances.

Yeah, that's useful information. Tell me, how does a game from last year or 2005 impact the outcome of this one? Trends are about the most useless information you can possibly gather. With 1000's of games played over time, trends will develop and some stick out more then others but to use it as a handicapping tool is ridiculous. Here, i got one:

Between 1984 and 1988 the 49ers went 12-3 ATS the spread after a straight up loss. Therefore, play San fran this coming week.

How ridiculous.

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Yeah, that's useful information. Tell me, how does a game from last year or 2005 impact the outcome of this one? Trends are about the most useless information you can possibly gather. With 1000's of games played over time, trends will develop and some stick out more then others but to use it as a handicapping tool is ridiculous. Here, i got one:

Between 1984 and 1988 the 49ers went 12-3 ATS the spread after a straight up loss. Therefore, play San fran this coming week.

How ridiculous.

'we' are gonna have to agree with that statement :toast:

 

[citylinesports]

Yeah, that's useful information. Tell me, how does a game from last year or 2005 impact the outcome of this one? Trends are about the most useless information you can possibly gather. With 1000's of games played over time, trends will develop and some stick out more then others but to use it as a handicapping tool is ridiculous. Here, i got one:

Between 1984 and 1988 the 49ers went 12-3 ATS the spread after a straight up loss. Therefore, play San fran this coming week.

How ridiculous.

It's just info. You decide to use it, or not use it. At the same time, you make the point that PGH has only won against the Browns and the Texans. Did you fail to notice that the Ravens have only won against the Browns and the Bengals? Both games were at home for Balt. As for your statement that Flacco has poise and confidence and hits his receivers with percision, check the stats. Flacco has zero TD passes this year. He threw for 129 yards in both games. two picks against the Browns. Balt; however, does have a solid defense and they do have a good running game. If they can pound the rock, they will have some success and maybe enough to cover.

 

[stock07]

Yeah, that's useful information. Tell me, how does a game from last year or 2005 impact the outcome of this one? Trends are about the most useless information you can possibly gather. With 1000's of games played over time, trends will develop and some stick out more then others but to use it as a handicapping tool is ridiculous. Here, i got one:

Between 1984 and 1988 the 49ers went 12-3 ATS the spread after a straight up loss. Therefore, play San fran this coming week.

How ridiculous.

Your wrong my friend....Look back at ATS treads throughout college and pro and you will see where the most profitable sides is....I will take 10 teams with above 70% ATS treads for a particuler situation/game you take the other side and I'll count my $$ at the end...All ATS treads are is more information you can bring to capping....ATS treads from 5 years to the present are very helpful especially in the pro game....Take USC/Org st. ATS record the past 4 years, I had the Beavers and a big part was the ATS covers OSU had the last 4 years and home ATS record, Im sure your capping brought you a winner in USC hahaha....

 

[thecruncher]

Big time agree. Actually got BAL +240 ML when the line first came out.

 

[eaglezzz]

sorry sherwood. I think you are giving to much praise to Flacco. Steelers Defense eats him up tonight. What the Eagles did to the Steelers last week is what the Steelers do to the Ravens tonight. Steelers are hard enough to beat at home and MNF at home good luck Baltimore!

 

[ProphetablePicks]

Good anaylisis ....


The more I hear about how Flacco is in trouble tonight the more I like him to have a good game. Ravens not the team you want to play when you have serious injuries and your O line is not clicking!. I like a team with a defense like Balt has and a chip on there shoulder after last years brutal beating.I personally have them @ +9.5 in a spread survivor pool so if Pitt does win hopefully it is not by more than 9 although I see a field goal type game here with a nasty edge to it ..

 

[Jetplane]

Sherwood, i respect you but trends seem to stay in line more than you notice. I stay with some trends... I agree that it's not completely accurate but it does factor in. Think about SAME TEAM RAVENS vs SAME TEAM PITT... over time, the trend should be biased one way, the other way, or have them deadlocked. It only makes sense... so you can't rule it out completely unless the teams are COMPLETELY different.

I'm with BALT anyway.

 

[bigwillokc]

I like this trend from w365's post and I think it will definitely come in to play tonight as the ravens will rush 30+ times with a rookie qb...


when the opponents rushed 31+ times against pittsburgh in last 11 games (3+ years), the steelers are 0-11 su and ats. and that happened 4 times against these same ravens during that period of time. actually, they are 0-8 against baltimore when the ravens rush at least 30 times against them. even when the opponent has less than 100 yards of passing, the steelers are unable to win or cover if that same opponent is rushing 30+ times on them.

 

[sherwood]

I definitely acknowledge the Ravens weak opposition, however, like I mentioned earlier, they dominated those two games. The thing about Flacco so far is that he's made plays when he had to. Baltimore has been a runnung team and it's worked. If he's forced to go the air, which he really hasn't been yet, I'm suggesting he'll have success.

We'll see.

good luck!!

 

[kusni]

Your wrong my friend....Look back at ATS treads throughout college and pro and you will see where the most profitable sides is....I will take 10 teams with above 70% ATS treads for a particuler situation/game you take the other side and I'll count my $$ at the end...All ATS treads are is more information you can bring to capping....ATS treads from 5 years to the present are very helpful especially in the pro game....Take USC/Org st. ATS record the past 4 years, I had the Beavers and a big part was the ATS covers OSU had the last 4 years and home ATS record, Im sure your capping brought you a winner in USC hahaha....

Sherwood is right, history is negligible. You have to cap what is going on right now this season. Players and coaches change, how can you look at that data and be skewed one way or another? It's like those idiots who look at what has hit on the roulette wheel to then see what to play next. Well, I guess if you are playing roulette you are already an idiot, but if you look at that stupid board (the casinos put this up to entice you) than you are a bigger idiot.