bad lines ?

DaShark · Sep 16, 2008

I don't get some of these :

Miss st +8.5
They were getting 10 from Auburn and only lost by 1 . Don't get me wrong I like G.T. and they have won me some money this year , but are they only 1.5 pts worse than AU . I don't think G.T. home field is worth that much .

Bama - 9.5
Arkansas is just flat out bad . Hurricaned out last week and 2 wins over Western Illinois and La Monroe by a total of 5 pts . think this line should be in the upper teens .

Mich st -8.5
N.D. is horrible . Had a 21 pt lead due to T.O.'s by Michigan and almost blew it before another Michigan fumble and return for TD . N.D. didn't win that game michigan lost it . Think this line is a couple to low but waiting to see if it drops lower because N.D. has a huge following and the public might drop this # even more .

Florida -7
C'mon if UCLA threw all over them in the second half week 1 what do you think Florida will do to them . Also we all know after the Miami game that Urban knows the spread and likes to cover it .

Thats all for now , what do you think ?

back with more later .

Jetplane · Sep 16, 2008

MISS ST +5
BAMA -7.5
MICH ST -11
FLORIDA -10

Those are the lines that my formula gives me. I do like FLA >

Go Meyer you coverin' fool!

READYTOROLL · Sep 16, 2008

agree with you on MSU for sure.. This game has route written all over it. Really considering making it a huge play.

krk1030 · Sep 16, 2008

Look at past results, Tennessee at home is a totally different team.

Laying a TD against the Vols in Knoxville is always dangerous.

chrishansen · Sep 16, 2008

miss st.- playing on the road instead of at home, horrible offense and g.t has a good front seven, should stall the offense and g.t. runs and runs and runs eating clock frustrating miss st. into feeling like they gotta make a play on every drive

bama- if arkansas sucks so bad how do they compare to tulane. road confernce game makes a diference. if 9.5 seems so low and you think bama has to much for ark, then you shouldt see a big diff in 9.5 and 13.5 and should play them at either line if it wer the case

mich st- if n.d is not to good and you look at who they have played and how they won then look at mich st, barely lost to cal, cal lost to maryland which lost to midd tenn st and barely beat deleware. there 4 maybe mich st aint 2 good either.

fla- good team going on the road in a tuff place 2 play, again a confernce gm and a big time rivalry, they have done well vs tenn the past 20 or so games but again its a confrce gm.

im not saying these games are not good picks, just saying you cant cap turnovers and you cant judge teams on past teams and the outcom of scores. nor can you look 2 closely at that little number that ranks a team, which is nothing but an opinion of several writers.

try viewing a game by teams offensive and deffensive play calling and how that matches up, some bad teams do things very well which some great teams may have as a weakness. if you ever watch a game even if your not betting on it try and observe what the teams do well and locate there strengths and weaknesses for future info towards a bet

i would say most ppl base games on a previous game they saw or the box score and the final score, if it wer this easy then we would all be picking winners

good luck bud, hope you got 4 winners if you play those games. and dont think im trying to bust your balls, hell i suck at gambling or the most part:lol:

DaShark · Sep 16, 2008

Chris , I agree with some of the thing you said and thats why I asked for thoughts . My process is early in the week I look at all the lines and see what catches my eye . These are the top 4 that I picked out , now I try to take it in depth and get some more info . If I hear or see things that turn me away I drop that game . Isn't that why we are all here ? Let's work together and pick some winners and get the cash .

chrishansen · Sep 16, 2008

my opinion on a game is wake

wake offensively loves mis direction and fla st has good athletes but ther speed and lack of discipline (as always) as far as contain will get them in trouble. they will run right by 12-15 plays because of stupidity.

i look for wake to really try and move skinner out on roll outs and see if they can break don the fla st contain. wake does a good job of dragging backside wr's

i also look for wake to attack the a gap hard on the run in 2 or 3rd down in the 7-10 yard range

wake should move the ball well and they have a great kicker which should account for 9 points

wake will confuse fla st with some no huddle and quick plays from scrimmage. again i have never been impressed with fla st discipline.

wake will proably overload some blitz packages causing bad throws, i also look for wake to throw in some rolling zone blitzes which will cause trouble for a qb at fla st whoo seems to think he has things under control. i really think wake scores on def because of one of his mistakes. if wake shoots the A gaps strong they will blow up a few running plays as well. fla st will then get some holding calls, i say they are good for 5 offensive holding calls. if they dont get a hold on a screnn play i will shit myself.

wake also has a great secondary which should throw some confusing man to man looks but in turn flip into a release zone. i think they make some very confusing reads for fla st somewhat cocky qb

wake will bend but not break, they get the most out of there players and have a great coach, fla st is too much back yard football which can win some games but the discipline of wake should hold them off

im gonna say 23-17 wake

Right-Side · Sep 17, 2008

A like a few of your games. Michigan st at home is a wise choice against a bad N.D team. N.D is not as good as the final score of the michigan game. Ringer should have his way in this game.
-Miss st is going to be another one of my plays. All of GT games have been real close this year, so give me a good D and the points and I''ll take my chances.
GL to us this wknd

echamp76 · Sep 17, 2008

chrishansen said:
my opinion on a game is wake

wake offensively loves mis direction and fla st has good athletes but ther speed and lack of discipline (as always) as far as contain will get them in trouble. they will run right by 12-15 plays because of stupidity.

i look for wake to really try and move skinner out on roll outs and see if they can break don the fla st contain. wake does a good job of dragging backside wr's

i also look for wake to attack the a gap hard on the run in 2 or 3rd down in the 7-10 yard range

wake should move the ball well and they have a great kicker which should account for 9 points

wake will confuse fla st with some no huddle and quick plays from scrimmage. again i have never been impressed with fla st discipline.

wake will proably overload some blitz packages causing bad throws, i also look for wake to throw in some rolling zone blitzes which will cause trouble for a qb at fla st whoo seems to think he has things under control. i really think wake scores on def because of one of his mistakes. if wake shoots the A gaps strong they will blow up a few running plays as well. fla st will then get some holding calls, i say they are good for 5 offensive holding calls. if they dont get a hold on a screnn play i will shit myself.

wake also has a great secondary which should throw some confusing man to man looks but in turn flip into a release zone. i think they make some very confusing reads for fla st somewhat cocky qb

wake will bend but not break, they get the most out of there players and have a great coach, fla st is too much back yard football which can win some games but the discipline of wake should hold them off

im gonna say 23-17 wake

Snead from ole miss completed 65% of his passes for 250 yards and tossed 4 TDs. I would be careful with Wake's secondary, FSU will have better athletes at WR then ole miss and they could make for a long day for the deacons. To add, WF's oline is very very green, they ran for 2.6 ypc against a decent ole miss defense, FSU's will be better. I think Bowden finally wins this game. GL either way.