Bad Cat's Weekly Power Rankings & Predictions

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BAD CAT'S NFL WEEK #6 POWER RANKINGS & PREDICTIONS

I opened a new thread to make my power rankings and projected scores/totals more transparent. I will not be posting the sides or totals that I wager. To use this information to your individual benefit compare my sides/totals to your individual books sides/totals and make a play if you see a large differential between the two. As you can see my numbers include a decimal, breaking down each game line to the very maximum. You may round each line or total to the nearest whole number if you wish. I will keep a updated record after each week. The record will be determined by comparing my lines to the Vegas lines at the completion of the games (For example if I have Atlanta -13.23 and the Vegas line is Atlanta -3 and Atlanta covers the Vegas line it will be counted as a win and if they don't, a loss. If my game total is 52.21 and the Vegas line is 45 it will be counted as a win if the game total is over the Vegas line and a loss if under the Vegas line) The first game listed below was posted in my previous thread. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

Pittsburgh -3.22, 43.68Pittsburgh 23.45 San Diego 20.23



Atlanta -13.23, 52.21Atlanta 32.72 New Orleans 19.49
Jacksonville -0.68, 36.26Jacksonville 18.47 Houston 17.79
NY Jets -5.86, 36NY Jets 20.93 Washington 15.07
Minnesota -1.04, 49.72Minnesota 25.38 Kansas City 24.34
Chicago -4.70, 36.10Chicago 20.40 Detroit 15.70
Arizona -12.44, 57.08Arizona 34.76 Pittsburgh 22.32
Buffalo -3.03, 53.21Buffalo 28.12 Cincinnati 25.09
Denver -12.50, 47.26Denver 29.88 Cleveland 17.38
Tennessee -14.34, 43.56Tennessee 28.95 Miami 14.61
Carolina -4.59, 46.97Carolina 25.78 Seattle 21.19
Baltimore -9.39, 46.33Baltimore 27.86 San Francisco 18.47
Green Bay -8.73, 44.49Green Bay 26.61 San Diego 17.88
New England -14.71, 55.25New England 34.98 Indianapolis 20.27
Philadelphia -0.03, 53.05Philadelphia 26.54 NY Giants 26.51
 

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Tough on them titans, wow.
Yeah, I was shocked also when my model showed Tennessee as a 2 touchdown favorite this week at home versus Miami. I can't begin to tell you why but my numbers are what they are. I was also as shocked with Carolina as a favorite against Seattle on the road. That doesn't necessarily mean I'll play the Carolina money line but I will take a long look at taking the points.
 

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Would look something like this! Appreciate the work BC !!! Thanks

BC PR WK6.jpg
 

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Sorry, I missed the Zone PR!

Zona line diff of -8.94, would be a better play than NE & CHI.

Zona total diff 11.58, would be best Total play.
 

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Wow that looks good Lando21. Is that something you did on your own? Your a little more computer savy than I am obviously lol. The Arizona line is missing at the bottom for some reason. If this is your work feel free to post and update your spreadsheet whenever you would like. Whatever helps the reader understand where the value is, is appreciated.
 

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Thanks BC ! Just using your numbers and simplifying it or everyone. Yea I had missed the Zona line and its a nice one. I updated my spreadsheet. Thanks for sharing your numbers.

BC PR WK6.jpg
 

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I was shocked as well badcat. My model shows Tenn as 11 pt favorites and car as a slight favorite on the road in seattle. I will need to sit down and dig into the numbers a bit more before I make a bet....but my gut tells me to fad the Car play. IDK- it just doesn't seem like Car has played anybody tough yet and Seattle has had a rougher schedule. Good luck in whatever you decide this week!
 

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I was shocked as well badcat. My model shows Tenn as 11 pt favorites and car as a slight favorite on the road in seattle. I will need to sit down and dig into the numbers a bit more before I make a bet....but my gut tells me to fad the Car play. IDK- it just doesn't seem like Car has played anybody tough yet and Seattle has had a rougher schedule. Good luck in whatever you decide this week!
I don't fade my numbers. If I did I would lose more than I would win. Good luck to you also.
 

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Sorry, I missed the Zone PR!

Zona line diff of -8.94, would be a better play than NE & CHI.

Zona total diff 11.58, would be best Total play.
Not a problem, thanks for posting the spreadsheet.
 

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Off topic, I haven't tried this model in College Football yet but I will test it out tonight. I show about a 10 point differential with the game total on the game tonight so just something to monitor. College is tough because of the amount of games each week but it's definately something to take a peak at.
 

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Thanks for the work Bad Cat and Lando thanks for the spreadsheet. GL to you this week.

:toast:
 

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Thanks for the work Bad Cat and Lando thanks for the spreadsheet. GL to you this week.

:toast:

No problem bud and yes, thank you Lando. Feel free to update your spreadsheet anytime you would like, preferable on game days.
 

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Off topic, I haven't tried this model in College Football yet but I will test it out tonight. I show about a 10 point differential with the game total on the game tonight so just something to monitor. College is tough because of the amount of games each week but it's definately something to take a peak at.

My model shows the favorite tonight at -4.15 which is real close to the current number and the total at 48.19 which is currently 9.81 points below the current number. Just thought I'd throw that out there.
 

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Cat I've been watching both your threads in college and pro piggies. Do you cap your plays strictly off of your model? Do other factors play into your decision? I know you have stated injuries are not factoried in your power rankings. Thanks for all the info and the good work you have shared to the forum.

Jar
 

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I don't handicap anything. I have a model that I use to make power ratings. It's as simple as that. It does take some time though.
 

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I am going to mess around with a little College Football as I have time. I started a thread in the CFB forum if anyone wants to take a peak.
 

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I was shocked as well badcat. My model shows Tenn as 11 pt favorites and car as a slight favorite on the road in seattle. I will need to sit down and dig into the numbers a bit more before I make a bet....but my gut tells me to fad the Car play. IDK- it just doesn't seem like Car has played anybody tough yet and Seattle has had a rougher schedule. Good luck in whatever you decide this week!


Deal, the Chiefs lost to 3 straight undefeated teams (Denver, Gbay & Bengals) going into the Bears game.....& lost SU as -9 pt fav.

I think people put too much emphasis in schedule strength in the NFL.....its over hyped IMO.

In college it means more......
 

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