AZ: Fade the Consensus Week 9

[ArizonaBound]

Tally for Thursday 5/29

Here is the latest info for anyone interested:

Pitt 1
Cincy 5
Does not qualify as of now, but probably will. Current line

Colorado 0
Cubs 10
Clearly a play on Colorado. Line is +145 right now

Toronto 1
Oakland 8
Posted this earlier and so far Toronto up 4-0 but early still. Hopefully I jinxed this one as I have a small play on Oakland. Saved myself some as I had it pegged for a bigger play.

A couple other could sneak in the next couple hours but looks like Cubs and Pitt for tonight. Just need one of the two to win for a little payout.

gl with whatever you decide

 

[Gator627]

argh...I was planning on playing both Cincy and Cubs.

 

[Richierich+]

You never know it was a landslide on the cubs last night as well and the dodgers looked like the had the game until the bottom of the 9th cubs tie and go extra innings to win.
Everywhere i have looked today I see alot of people on the cubs. Which is why I am going
to play Colorado. Doesn't look like anyone is giving them a chance.

 

[ArizonaBound]

had time tonight to get this out

thanks to those doing the tally




Sa-15 Over-2
Lal-11 Under-6

Mlb

Pit-1 Over
Cin-8 Under

Lad-2 Over-2
Mets-7 Under

Col Over
Cubs-11 Under

Hou-3 Over
Stl-7 Under-1

Sf-3 Over-3
Az-3 Under-1

W.sox-5 Over-2
Tb-4 Under-3

Min-8 Over
Kc-5 Under

-----------
Tor-1 Over **10-0 Toronto in 8th ** NICE CALL by the Spouters
Oak-8 Under-4

 

[wizardofoddz]

Just to prove a point
SAN FRANCISCO is the major play tonight
If your going to fade, fade it to the MAX

 

[Toby1]

Just to prove a point
SAN FRANCISCO is the major play tonight
If your going to fade, fade it to the MAX

i'd be very careful playing against the d-backs tonite :drink:

 

[wizardofoddz]

i'd be very careful playing against the d-backs tonite :drink:

This is why it was an excellent fade

 

[ArizonaBound]

Thursday results

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2-2, +$85

week to date:
10-14, -105

season to date:
116-103, +$3080

Converted win % is at 59%!


Wizzard, good call on SF.

 

[Richierich+]

AB, because you follow this closely would you post what you are playing?

 

[ArizonaBound]

I do not mind posting what I am playing but I don't want to confuse anyone who may be paying attention to this thread. I am not blindly following the fades, although I am considering it, but instead using it as another tool in my capping and final decision making. For example, I was heavy on the Mets last night despite the fact that the touts were on them, same with Oakland (we know how that turned out, painful for me). I will start posting my plays but if it gets confusing I will just start another thread.

AB

 

[PC16]

Az %^_

 

[ArizonaBound]

what up espi....what up with you and the cc?

 

[ArizonaBound]

The early game is a not a system play (4-2 on Cubs).

Personal play:
Cubs -150, 1u
Under 11, 2u
See Lilly getting it done and the Cubs offense enough to win but I am not concerned about the wind. Line is adjusted for it.

 

[wizardofoddz]

Just to prove a point
SAN FRANCISCO is the major play tonight
If your going to fade, fade it to the MAX

This is a play I consider a fade play
A) When the so called touts are on a side
B) When Joe Q Public is on the same side as a tout
This is the ONLY time I will consider a fade play.
On Wednesday night the same was on the Red Sox with the same out come, Seattle wins 1-0
This is something I have followed for 20+ years.
It's NOT about fading the touts, it's about fading the money.

 

[ArizonaBound]

gotta run to a wedding so here it what it looks like as of 5pm

Florida 4
Philly 0
Keep an eye on this one. Philly is a big fav and those are 11-1 if the number are right

LAD 2
NYM 6
Close. I will be on LAD either way.

Pitt 2
STL 7
Looks to be a play on Pitt

Cleveland 10
KC 3
Play on KC which I alredy have listed as a play!!

Tor 2
LAA 9
Was considering Toronto here so I will go for it based on this.

Nothing else looks close at this time.

Gl with your plays.

Wizzard: good point about the touts and public, but those are rare plays. Good for a guy who plays minimum plays and a lot of money. The average recreational guy can follow these on a daily basis and still get his action. 1-5 plays a day on average and grinding out a profit.
Keep posting your fades as I like the information.

AZ

 

[wizardofoddz]

Everyone is drooooooling over Kansas City, NFW!!!!!
Cleveland wins EZ
It's not about fading picks, it's about fading money$$$$$$

 

[wizardofoddz]

gotta run to a wedding so here it what it looks like as of 5pm
Wizzard: good point about the touts and public, but those are rare plays. Good for a guy who plays minimum plays and a lot of money. The average recreational guy can follow these on a daily basis and still get his action. 1-5 plays a day on average and grinding out a profit.
Keep posting your fades as I like the information.

AZ

AZ, isn't this what this all about??????
I mean money$$$$$
Play the plays that win, not throwing a dart?
If the play is there you play, if not you don't.......
Not as rare as one would think.
Five plays a week, not five plays a night.....

 

[wizardofoddz]

This is a point I was trying to make earlier (maybe in a different thread)
Some solid favorites get passed by.
The play tonight should be MILWAUKEE-135
It's about fading money, not picks......

 

[candylicker]

hey wiz so you are playing cleveland
mil

 

[wizardofoddz]

hey wiz so you are playing cleveland
mil

No, not playing Cleveland...
I feel the strongest play on the board is Milwaukee.
But I do think Cleveland wins EZ
You need to take the time and sort it all out.
I will admit, I am a guy who plays minimum plays (large), but I try to find the best play on the board....