Awmllc2000 Superbowl card

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After a very profitable 4-0-1 conference championships I am up 16.5 units since the regular season ended. I cashed out my winnings from the regular season and bowl season, so this is whats left in the account. If I lose I really dont care, as I have had a very profitable NCAA and NFL season.:103631605


Cardinals +6.5 (16.5 units)More than 3X my biggest play of the year
:toast:
 

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I hope you're right. You make it sound like you don't care that much if u loe. What are your reasons for the pick?
 

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I dont think putting a wager on 1 team vs another has anything to do with hate..........................its what he thinks is the best play
 

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That and he hates the Steelers.

Nothing wrong with that, but I think he always picks against them.
 

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That and he hates the Steelers.

Nothing wrong with that, but I think he always picks against them.
I dont always pick against the steelers, I dont hate them. I just happen to feel this is a good spot for the cardinals getting 6.5. I cap this game as a 3-6 pt win for the cards....so I take the points. nothing more, nothing less.:toast:
 

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Cardinals +6.5 (16.5 units)More than 3X my biggest play of the year


Hello awmllc2000...

I originally posted these thoughts in another thread that you started in which you stated that you were backing the Cardinals in the Super Bowl, if you happen to read these same thoughts in that thread I do appologize as I meant to post in this thread.
_____________________________________________________________

Obviously you must have completed your overall analysis of this years upcoming Super Bowl and in that regard I commend you...

...personally, I am going to wait a week before finalizing my selections, the reason centers around the fact that the game itself is two weeks away from now and ALOT of things can happen between then and now...

...for example, we can take an advance look at the expected weather for this OUTDOOR contest but with it being two weeks away, how accurate will the report be?

...how about injuries? We don't know the status of WR Hines Ward of Pittsburgh and we don't know the status of WR Boldin, yes Boldin played against the Eagles but he did so in a limited role, meaning that the possibility exists that he might still be hampered in some way.

...both teams will practice between now and game time, however, how do we know that someone (any player from either team) will not get hurt in practice between now and then?

Wayyyyyyy too many questions must be answered for a game that is almost a full two weeks away in my humble opinion...

This much I do know, I backed Arizona each of the past three weeks against Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia and won lots of cash by doing so, however, the Cards game against Pittsburgh is an ENTIRELY different animal...

While Tampa is indeed a neutral site, it only figures that the Stadium will have way more Steeler backers than visa versa and in that regard the Card offense has had troubles...

...a quick check of their wins/losses shows that six of the Cards seven losses were by 7 points or more and five of those seven overall losses took place AWAY from their friendly confines in Glendale Arizona.

As already stated I personally haven't made a decision one way or the other as of yet with regard to this years Super Bowl, but this much I know..

...I backed the Cards at home against Atlanta and the reason centered around the fact that the Falcons had a rookie QB and a rookie head coach and they were playing on the road at Arizona...

...I backed the Cards on the road against the Panthers because of the fact that Carolina got beat up on the road against the Giants in OT and then expended alot of emotional energy in their 33-31 win at New Orleans prior to taking on the Cardinals who were on a huge emotional high after defeating Atlanta, meaning that one team was on the uptick while the exact opposite was true with the other...

...and finally I backed the Cardinals this past Sunday against Philly and the reason centered around the fact that Arizona had played good at home in posting a mark of 7-2 while the Eagles had posted a road mark of 5-4-1 and were playing on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span and were doing so after draining wins over Minny and the G-men.

None of the above mentioned elements that were in Arizona's favor over the past three weeks will come into play in this years Super Bowl against Pittsburgh...

This isn't a validation of the Steelers in this contest in anyway nor is it a de-valuation of the Cardinals in anyway, I am simply stating that in the big picture and in my humble opinion I think its wayyyyyyy too early to back one team over the other until more information can be uncovered and digested...

...and of course until we have a better picture of the weather and injury situation as we are only 1 day removed from the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink: <!-- / message -->
 

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After a very profitable 4-0-1 conference championships I am up 16.5 units since the regular season ended. I cashed out my winnings from the regular season and bowl season, so this is whats left in the account. If I lose I really dont care, as I have had a very profitable NCAA and NFL season.:103631605


Cardinals +6.5 (16.5 units)More than 3X my biggest play of the year
:toast:

What have you seen with this AZ team that makes them a good match up for Pittsburgh? I saw the thread where you ranked AZ highly (top 5) around week 7-8, so there must have been something you saw outside of the W/L column that made a spark...
 

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Hello awmllc2000...

I originally posted these thoughts in another thread that you started in which you stated that you were backing the Cardinals in the Super Bowl, if you happen to read these same thoughts in that thread I do appologize as I meant to post in this thread.
_____________________________________________________________

Obviously you must have completed your overall analysis of this years upcoming Super Bowl and in that regard I commend you...

...personally, I am going to wait a week before finalizing my selections, the reason centers around the fact that the game itself is two weeks away from now and ALOT of things can happen between then and now...

...for example, we can take an advance look at the expected weather for this OUTDOOR contest but with it being two weeks away, how accurate will the report be?

...how about injuries? We don't know the status of WR Hines Ward of Pittsburgh and we don't know the status of WR Boldin, yes Boldin played against the Eagles but he did so in a limited role, meaning that the possibility exists that he might still be hampered in some way.

...both teams will practice between now and game time, however, how do we know that someone (any player from either team) will not get hurt in practice between now and then?

Wayyyyyyy too many questions must be answered for a game that is almost a full two weeks away in my humble opinion...

This much I do know, I backed Arizona each of the past three weeks against Atlanta, Carolina, and Philadelphia and won lots of cash by doing so, however, the Cards game against Pittsburgh is an ENTIRELY different animal...

While Tampa is indeed a neutral site, it only figures that the Stadium will have way more Steeler backers than visa versa and in that regard the Card offense has had troubles...

...a quick check of their wins/losses shows that six of the Cards seven losses were by 7 points or more and five of those seven overall losses took place AWAY from their friendly confines in Glendale Arizona.

As already stated I personally haven't made a decision one way or the other as of yet with regard to this years Super Bowl, but this much I know..

...I backed the Cards at home against Atlanta and the reason centered around the fact that the Falcons had a rookie QB and a rookie head coach and they were playing on the road at Arizona...

...I backed the Cards on the road against the Panthers because of the fact that Carolina got beat up on the road against the Giants in OT and then expended alot of emotional energy in their 33-31 win at New Orleans prior to taking on the Cardinals who were on a huge emotional high after defeating Atlanta, meaning that one team was on the uptick while the exact opposite was true with the other...

...and finally I backed the Cardinals this past Sunday against Philly and the reason centered around the fact that Arizona had played good at home in posting a mark of 7-2 while the Eagles had posted a road mark of 5-4-1 and were playing on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span and were doing so after draining wins over Minny and the G-men.

None of the above mentioned elements that were in Arizona's favor over the past three weeks will come into play in this years Super Bowl against Pittsburgh...

This isn't a validation of the Steelers in this contest in anyway nor is it a de-valuation of the Cardinals in anyway, I am simply stating that in the big picture and in my humble opinion I think its wayyyyyyy too early to back one team over the other until more information can be uncovered and digested...

...and of course until we have a better picture of the weather and injury situation as we are only 1 day removed from the AFC and NFC Championship games.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink: <!-- / message -->

You make some excellent arguments to wait, although those could be some of the same reasons to get in early. The way I cap this game with all variables included, I just havent came up with a situation that includes Pittsburgh winning in a multiple score win. Thus I jumped on the 6.5 points. GL to you and everyone else on thier superbowl wagers!:toast:
 

RX Prophet
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What have you seen with this AZ team that makes them a good match up for Pittsburgh? I saw the thread where you ranked AZ highly (top 5) around week 7-8, so there must have been something you saw outside of the W/L column that made a spark...
I wont go into all of the variables I use in capping the game, although here is a very simplistic way to look at this matchup. Take another look at the Colts Pittsburgh game.

The Colts Offense is similar to this Card offense. Cardinals are far more explosive.

The Colts defense is far from impressive. This Cardinal Defense has become a force within the last few weeks.

You sir have a very good memory to remember that thread.:103631605 When that thread was posted I saw a very raw Cardinal team that I thought could really morph into a premier NFL squad if they continued to improve, which they definitly have.
 

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I wont go into all of the variables I use in capping the game, although here is a very simplistic way to look at this matchup. Take another look at the Colts Pittsburgh game.

The Colts Offense is similar to this Card offense. Cardinals are far more explosive.

:howdy:
Hello awmllc2000...

Thanks for the reply my friend, however, as a side note I really wouldn't use that game between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis as a barometer of things to come between Arizona and Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl...

The situation is TOTALLY different, when the Colts and Steelers hooked up, Pittsburgh was not in "must-win mode" as they were 6-2 straight up at the time, meanwhile, the Colts were indeed in "must-win mode" as they were 4-4 straight up at the time and needed a win in the worst way...

...a check backwards in time reveals that Pittsburgh was without the services of two key starters in that contest as RB Willie Parker did not play nor did TE Health Miller...

...another factor that must be taken into consideration is that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger played against the Colts with a separated shoulder which in turn contributed to Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions..

Even with Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions Pittsburgh still won the stat wars against the Colts as the Steelers had more first downs 18 to 17, had more total yards 326 to 290 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a 34:05 to 25:55 margin.

You are correct in that Arizona's passing game ranked higher than that of the Colts as the Cardinals ranked #2 in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game while the Colts ranked #5 in this same category...

...however, when handicapping this years Super Bowl it must be taken into consideration that Pittsburgh has the league's #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game.

A glance at who the Cardinals have played this year reveals something quite startling and that is the fact that Arizona only played 7 teams (Philly twice) that had defenses ranked in the NFL's top 10 in passing defense and the Cardinals posted a record of 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games.

In my humble opinion the line on this contest will go higher as I would not be all that surprised to see Pittsburgh listed as an 8 point favorite by game time, thusly, those liking the Cardinal side should wait for a better line, however, those liking Pittsburgh would be wise to snatch up the Steelers now at one of the outs that is currently listing the line at Pittsburgh -6.5..

Once again nice work this year my friend, take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:
 

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Wow, take it easy...Everyone who wagers on Cardinals dont hate your team. Geez:nohead:

The problem with posting on forums is that tone and intention doesn't come across.

No need for me to take it easy. I just recall your propensity to stir things up, especially with Steelers fan.

No worries.
 

RX Prophet
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:howdy:
Hello awmllc2000...

Thanks for the reply my friend, however, as a side note I really wouldn't use that game between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis as a barometer of things to come between Arizona and Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl...

The situation is TOTALLY different, when the Colts and Steelers hooked up, Pittsburgh was not in "must-win mode" as they were 6-2 straight up at the time, meanwhile, the Colts were indeed in "must-win mode" as they were 4-4 straight up at the time and needed a win in the worst way...

...a check backwards in time reveals that Pittsburgh was without the services of two key starters in that contest as RB Willie Parker did not play nor did TE Health Miller...

...another factor that must be taken into consideration is that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger played against the Colts with a separated shoulder which in turn contributed to Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions..

Even with Roethlisberger throwing THREE interceptions Pittsburgh still won the stat wars against the Colts as the Steelers had more first downs 18 to 17, had more total yards 326 to 290 and won the TOP (time of possession) battle by a 34:05 to 25:55 margin.

You are correct in that Arizona's passing game ranked higher than that of the Colts as the Cardinals ranked #2 in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game while the Colts ranked #5 in this same category...

...however, when handicapping this years Super Bowl it must be taken into consideration that Pittsburgh has the league's #1 defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game.

A glance at who the Cardinals have played this year reveals something quite startling and that is the fact that Arizona only played 7 teams (Philly twice) that had defenses ranked in the NFL's top 10 in passing defense and the Cardinals posted a record of 2-5 straight up and ATS in those games.

In my humble opinion the line on this contest will go higher as I would not be all that surprised to see Pittsburgh listed as an 8 point favorite by game time, thusly, those liking the Cardinal side should wait for a better line, however, those liking Pittsburgh would be wise to snatch up the Steelers now at one of the outs that is currently listing the line at Pittsburgh -6.5..

Once again nice work this year my friend, take care and be well

Dirtydog

:wink:
This game is a hard game to cap, as-is any superbowl. If the line creeps up to 8 I may even put a couple more units on the Cards. GL to you my friend. Hope to see more of your extremely well written write-ups next year.
 

RX Prophet
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Getting close to gametime!

I recieved my numbers today to a high dollar squares board that I play every year. I never cash in this MF. I usually get the worst numbers possible. Square #1 looks like it may have some potential this year. I can only hope!:toast:


Square#1 Cards-3, Steelers-6

Square#2 Cards-0, Steelers-2
 

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Well finally someone on the cards. Big ben will be nervous again so not to look as horrid as he did last time in the big dance. Onces an if he gets down he will force the throws like always. If it weren't for troy they wouldn't even be in this game.
 

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I am surprised that with a wager that big (or any size for that matter) you didn't buy the half or wait closer to game time to see if that number gets driven back to 7...then all Zona backers should buy to 7.5.

I see a TENN - STL type of game here with it coming down to the last possession ... just have that weird feeling....and I bought to 7.5 there and hopefully will get it again.

BOL :toast:
 

RX Prophet
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Won 5 units tonight with my mma GSP pick, So heres my updated card.

Cards +6.5 (16.5 units)
Under 47 (5 units)

Teaser Cards + 14 & under 54 (3 units)
Parlay Cards +7 & under 47 (2 units)
 

RX Prophet
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I am surprised that with a wager that big (or any size for that matter) you didn't buy the half or wait closer to game time to see if that number gets driven back to 7...then all Zona backers should buy to 7.5.

I see a TENN - STL type of game here with it coming down to the last possession ... just have that weird feeling....and I bought to 7.5 there and hopefully will get it again.

BOL :toast:
Obviously should have waited...I told myself (as the championship game was being played) if the opening line came out at +6 or better I would jump on it, and thats what I did. Got it tonight at +7. Like I said though, I have had a extremely good year this year. If I happen to lose everything I bet on the SB I will still be in the positive.:drink:

GL to you!:toast:
 

RX Prophet
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Updated card

Cards +6.5 (16.5 units)
Under 47 (5 units)

Teaser Cards + 14 & under 54 (3 units)
Parlay Cards +7 & under 47 (2 units)

Cards to recieve opening kickoff (2.5 units)
Coin Toss- Heads (1.5 units)
Over 3 sacks (2.5 units)
 

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