Avocado's NBA Playoffs 2022

[Avocado33]

I had an awful NBA regular season; got caught in a game of chase, was not putting the work analyze day-to-day regular season games that you need to have a shot, and was probably playing too loose considering the high I was on after NFL season. Decided it was better to take a break from the NBA and wait until the playoffs started, and put some time into analyzing these teams. I'm very excited to get going.

I will be making on plays on every game against the spread; no totals or money line plays. Going to start with the play-in games in a couple of weeks. Absolutely juiced for this!

It's a good time to look at futures as we get a better sense of health and how these teams are. There are, to me, four teams that have a legit shot to win the whole thing: Suns, Nets, Warriors, and Grizzlies. I recommend looking at some wagers involving them, for both conference and NBA. Wanted to get that out there today well ahead of the playoffs, hence why I'm starting this thread now.

Also happy to hear any thought about the playoffs. Always down for some hoops talk this type of year!


Good luck y'all!

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 0-0


April 12

Nets -8

Tough number, but I am picking them all. Jarrett Allen at this point seems like he might give it a go, but all indications are that he is still experiencing a lot of pain and it's hard to see that going away by game time. He is arguably their most valuable player, as they are just so much better defensively with him. He can shore up any weaknesses that their backcourt can have defensively. I think Kyrie especially should be able to find opportunities to exploit the Cavs off the dribble and finish at the rim. I also think KD could bounce back shooting-wise after a relatively poor performance in the season finale.

Cleveland's my team and I don't enjoy picking against them, and I do think they will play hard and be competitive for most of this game. But I think Brooklyn's stars shine and put away the young Cavs in the 4th and get over the number.


Clippers +2.5

This is another tough one, but I think LA does enough to get it done here. Paul George gave this team the boost it needed heading into the playoffs, and I think their recent experience in these high-stakes games is very valuable in a game like this. Minnesota has been great since the all-star game, but I'm not sure we can trust the inefficient Edwards and Russell in a spot like this. I could see one of them playing absolutely awful. There's also a pretty big coaching gap here in the Clippers favor.

Should be a tight one, but I think the cohesiveness and experience of the Clippers gives them the overall edge. So I'm taking the points.




Probably wouldn't unload on either of these games, but these are my plays.


Good luck

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Clips have massive dark-horse value to win West/Title

 

[Avocado33]

Clips have massive dark-horse value to win West/Title

Need Kawhi IMO

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Need Kawhi IMO

well yeah, that would be tremendous. They also just played the last 2 months w/o PG and Norm Powell. Pretty sure without those 3 guys they are the top 10 defensive team, have everyone on the roster except PG and Jackson shooting above league average from 3, the 2nd best offense in crunch time, 2nd best defensive rating out of a timeout, 4 options at center, etc.

 

[Avocado33]

well yeah, that would be tremendous. They also just played the last 2 months w/o PG and Norm Powell. Pretty sure without those 3 guys they are the top 10 defensive team, have everyone on the roster except PG and Jackson shooting above league average from 3, the 2nd best offense in crunch time, 2nd best defensive rating out of a timeout, 4 options at center, etc.

Yeah good points. Highlighting why I like them tonight

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 0-2


Oof. Two tough losses. Games played out similar to how I thought they would, and we looked pretty good through 3 quarters of both games, but that's the NBA for ya. Onward.


April 13


Hawks -5

Atlanta has been playing a lot better as of late, and Trey has been sensational. It reminds me a bit of how they came on late last season before that magical run. Ultimately they are too flawed on the defensive end to make another run like that (and I think the East is simply too good), but I think Atlanta is the better all-around team.

This is another game where the line feels about right, and I expect a tight one into the . But think the Hawks ride a big game from Trey and make the plays down the stretch/make some free throws to push past the number. Neither of these teams are great defensively, but the games recently between the two have been lower scoring than you'd expect. I think both teams play pretty well offensively, but again Hawks make a few more plays down the stretch. Not a game I love to be honest -- betting mediocre teams is tricky!


Spurs +5

This is the first line that makes me hesitate a little bit. The two teams had a weird season series -- Pelicans absolutely drubbed the Spurs in San Antonio , but the Spurs won the other three match-ups, including two in New Orleans.

Spurs are obviously well-coached with Pop on the sideline, and they also are not a dreadful road team. Maybe I'm falling into a trap here but this feels like a coin-flip game as far as the outright winner goes. Pelicans got a little bit of boost with the McCollum addition, but they've been pretty hot and cold in bigger games. They're a hard to analyze, and also a tough one to trust. Maybe they sneak one out, but if I'm picking between basically two equally mediocre teams I'd rather take the one getting 5 points


Good luck

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 1-3

Still bummed a little bit about Tuesday. Thought I figured both those games out and tough to not at least split those given how they looked through three quarters. Wednesday was more mediocre but a slightly better result. Hopefully we get going here soon.


April 15

Cavs +2.5

I am not shocked by Atlanta being favored in this game, but I do like Cleveland here even without Allen. I think the Hawks have shown a tendency to go from hot to cold fairly often this year and can be a little streaky. I think we see a rougher shooting game from them, particularly their role players. I do think Trey will give the Cavs defense trouble, but I don’t think that’s enough to be the difference in a game like this.

I also think there’s a great chance we see big games from Garland and Mobley and they create bad match ups for the Hawks defensively. Look for either LaVert or Love to be big factors as well if Atlanta tries to scheme hard towards Garland. Hawks tend to really struggle with dynamic point guards, and I like the Cavs in this match up because of that and the home court.

Clippers -4

This is a battle for who is going to get rolled by Phoenix. Similar to how I see the East game, I think this is a case where the slightly better team bounces back and the lesser team struggles to duplicate a pretty solid performance. In particular I think Zubac can neutralize valucunias on the inside, and think PG and Reggie should be able to create some scoring opportunities for themselves and others against iffy defenders across from them.

Add to that the veteran experience that I thought would help them more in the first game, and I think the Clippers should be able to pull away late — if not before

Good luck

 

[Avocado33]

Not factoring in to YTD, but where I lean on series at this point:

Mavericks +230
Sixers -185
Grizzlies -380
Warriors -250
Nets +125
Bucks -1200


One seeds should both win regardless of opponent, though probably way better value on Miami

 

[Avocado33]

Paul George out with COVID. Damn

 

[Avocado33]

Gonna get Saturday plans in now


April 16

Mavericks +5

As good as Luka is, I think 5 is a little too much. I actually think Dallas has an opportunity to throw out a lot stronger of defensive lineups, maybe add some size to keep Mitchell and Utah's slashers out of the lane. The Mavericks are a low key very good defensive team, and frankly have been just a really solid all around team after a sluggish beginning to the season. The supporting cast is kind of overlooked because of Luka's individual's greatness, but I think a home crowd and a solid defense/three-point shooting will give them a decent shot to win the game outright.

Utah also very prone to doing Utah things and completely blowing this lol


Timberwolves +6.5

I'm a believer in the Grizzlies and think they've been overlooked all year long. Their greatness without Ja Morant has been almost nonsensical. I love the Grizzlies to win this series, but I do think Minnesota will make Game 1 a ball game. You often see lesser talented teams in these higher seed match-ups give the favorite their best shot in Game 1. I think this is no different. I see a close game down the stretch, and I think Memphis probably sneaks it out. But I think KAT will respond from being so limited/foul trouble in the play-in and have a big game and keep the Wolves in it to the end.


Sixers -4.5

Raptors have been hot and this has the potential to be a great series, but I think the first game of the series goes to Philly. I'm not a big Harden fan, but I think he will have a nice first playoff showing in Philly. Embiid should be able to get any shot he wants, and I see that as the biggest mismatch in this series/ultimately why I like Philly to win the series. I think after a nice rest and with a raucous home crowd, the team collectively plays well and takes G1.


Warriors -6.5

Steph returning is going to give this Warriors team a lot of energy. It's going to be special seeing Steph/Draymond/Klay play their first playoff game together in Chase. They've only played 11 minutes together all season long, but the chemistry between them will 100% be there. The bigger concern for Golden State by figuring out how Poole and Wiggins are integrated with having all 3 of the Big 3 back. But I think Chase will be rocking tomorrow and one of those games where the home team has the edge because of it.


Good luck

 

[Avocado33]

Been drinking wine all day so no writes ups but picks for tomrrow, 3-6 ytd as I type


April 17

Heat -6.5
Nets +4
Bulls +10
Suns -10.5


Good luck

 

[Avocado33]

Final two series plays:

Suns (-1600)
Heat (-395)

 

[Avocado33]

Fucking finally got a break

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 8-6

Finally got a break yesterday. Was on the wrong side of 3 bad beats before yesterday. Maybe things are starting to even back out. Onward.


April 18


Raptors +7.5

The dinosaurs predictably had a little stage fright in their first playoff game. Philly was cheaper than -200 for a reason when the series line opened up. Toronto is going to come out with a lot more urgency and energy on the defensive end. Also asking Harden to give you two great playoff games in a row seems like a tall order, though he typically plays his worst when even more is at stake than this. I think the Raptors will at least be competitive tonight and possibly give themselves a chance to win outright. Toronto will dig themselves in a hole if they continue to be grabby, as Philly is masterful at drawing fouls with Embiid/Harden. Nurse will adjust and the Raptors will be ready tonight.


Mavericks +5

The first game was frustrating in that Dallas had plenty of chances to win, let alone cover the number. They were able to defend pretty well as I predicted, but the 3's simply were not falling. It is at least a little encouraging that Bojan and Mitchell can each be scoring for a half of basketball, but the team can't make it to 100. I don't love this game to be honest, as it feels there is the slight danger of Dallas mailing it in if they're not hitting shots early. But I am going to keep faith in the home team that they can make this a series.


Warriors -7

I don't like this game at all, but we're picking them all. Kind of like Toronto in Philly, I think Denver will come out with a sense of urgency. I particularly think they will show some promise on the defensive end early. But it's hard to bet on Denver, when the opposition has 6 players better than their second player right now. The Nuggets were fortunate the game was as close as it was in Game 1 -- they played like dog shit. They'll be better tonight, but I can see Warriors pulling away late to cover the number.


Good luck

 

[indiana]

A/33.......BOL with your action tonight buddy.....
on G. St. with you.....indy

 

[her288]

Thx AV

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 10-7
Play-in: 1-5
First Round: 9-2




April 19


Hawks +7.5

I do not like this game. Tough number. I think someone on Atlanta will step up and hit 3's if Miami overplays Trae. Trae himself will probably have a better game. I think they do enough to cover and make this game close, but not a huge fan of this one.


Grizzlies -6.5

Memphis was lazy on defense in their first game; do not expect that to happen again. Maybe one of Minnesota's big 3 catches fire and keeps them competitive, but I expect a lot stronger of a defensive effort after that pathetic Game 1 showing. Memphis is the better team, and they will respond tonight.


Suns -9.5

Line just seems a little low, which I guess one could argue is a little concerning. But....the Pelicans are a bad team. Phoenix's defense showed us how lethal it can be when they commit. Maybe like Game 1 they fall asleep at the wheel a little bit, but they are just too good to win by less than 10 IMO



Good luck

 

[Michelangelo]

GL Av. On 2 of 3.

 

[Avocado33]

YTD: 11-9
Play-in: 1-5
First Round: 10-4


Little bit pissed about yesterday. Saw the Hawks blowing that cover from a mile away. Oh well. Onward!


April 20

Celtics -3.5

This is a tough one. I have Brooklyn in the series and still think they have a decent shot to win the series even if they lose this game, but to me it's going to be hard for them to have another Kyrie-godlike performance. They had that game won, and blew it in the most gut-wrenching way possible. Not all is lost if the Nets squeeze one out for the sake of my futures and series wagers, but I just think it's going to be tough for them to respond emotionally after a game like that. I think Jaylen Brown will have a strong game tonight, and I think that'll serve as a catalyst for Boston to cover the number. KD going off doesn't necessarily correlate to a great team performance for Brooklyn; they need a role player to step up


Raptors +2

Jurassic Park will be popping tonight. I think Philly is in great shape for the series, but that this is the night where Toronto prevails. I think the role player performance will be the key difference; I see Maxey slowing down a bit and a couple of Raptors bench players stepping up and hitting some big shots in the comfort of their building.


Bulls +10

This game sucks. Number is pretty good. I think Chicago will be competitive in this one only because I expect a big bounce back game from Derozan and I think they will be able to shoot a lot better. Part of me wanted to go the other way -- Milwaukee didn't play great and this would be a natural bounce back spot. But Chicago really had a shot to win despite dreadful shooting. Score was low last game, I think we could see a lot more points tonight. I think the Bucks win outright, but I'll take a shot with Chicago on the spread.


Good luck