Average Ranking Info

[russ1945]

Well I am back, for better or worse LOL. I have been getting ready to retire and have been deeply involved in the last election. I will try to make up for it and this year I will post my bowl picks for free on this forum only.

Some of you are familiar with one of my systems which is the Average Ranking System. I take the team Offensive Scoring Ranking and add it to the Defensive Scoring Average and divide them by two to come up with the average ranking.

I thought I would begin this thread with a look at those teams who have most improved their average ranking over last season.

Those teams are Wyoming, W Michigan, U.C.F., Troy, Old Dominion, Miami Fl, Lousiville, Colorado, and Army. They have all improved by over 40 points with Colorado leading the pack by improving by 61.5 points YTD.

As a group those teams have compiled a combined ATS record of 68-30-1. That is hitting at 70% winners. Again Colorado is leading the pack with a 9-1 ATS record.
These averages mean more as a season progresses and are very valuable in analyzing bowl matchups.

I will come back a few times this week and focus in on these average rankings and relate them to ATS records.

BOL

 

[russ1945]

Actually U.C.F. has the most improved average ranking improving by 82.5 points and their ATS record is 8-2. Need some new glasses lol.

Bottom line is that teams who improve their average ranking by 40 or more points are very successful ATS also.

 

[indiana]

R/1945..........welcome back buddy..............always good to see your thought's..........BOL with the remaining season and the bowls.............indy

 

[russ1945]

The two upsets this weekend against Michigan and Clemson really make me wonder.

Strength of Schedule does play a part somehow. Michigan is ranked #78 in S.O.S. and Clemson is ranked #108.

That may account for their records YTD. Michigan must still visit Ohio St. And Clemson has to visit Wake Forest who just got by Louisville who's S.O.S ranking is #53.

 

[russ1945]

The top ten teams in the S.O.S. category are from 1 to 10: LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Aub, So Cal, Wisconsin, BYU, Alabama, Northwestern and Florida St.
So Cal also upset Washington this weekend.
S.O.S. is very important and I always use it along with my average rankings.

 

[gk51]

Great information. Will be looking forward to more updates.

Thanks

 

[GoSooners]

The top ten teams in the S.O.S. category are from 1 to 10: LSU, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Aub, So Cal, Wisconsin, BYU, Alabama, Northwestern and Florida St.
So Cal also upset Washington this weekend.
S.O.S. is very important and I always use it along with my average rankings.

Somebody forgot to tell Auburn they had a strong SOS.

 

[russ1945]

In my preseason thread I analyzed the AP top 25. On the average 9 or more teams that are on the AP preseason poll do not wind up there at the end of the season and their ATS records are usually not very good. However the teams that replace them usually have a very good ATS record.

At this point and time 13 teams that were on the AP preseason top 25 are no longer there. Their combined ATS record ytd is 49-77-1 (39%).

The 13 teams who have replaced them have a combined ATS record ytd of 77-48-6 (62%)

The 12 teams who have remained on the AP top season up to now have a combined ATS record of 75-52-1 (59%).

YTD Colorado and Temple lead with ATS records of 9-1. They are followed by Alabama, UCF, Colorado St, E. Michigan, and Wisconsin all with ATS records of 8-2.

Bringing up the rear with their ATS records are Arizona (1-9 ATS) and Oregon (1-8-1 ATS).

 

[russ1945]

GS - The SEC has the top 4 with the highest S.O.S. ranking and Alabama is #8. Auburn still has to face Alabama.

 

[bigwang]

So glad to see your threads. The info is very relevant and I really appreciate it.

Looking at my sheets I have made good money on all of the big gainers aside from Troy. Most, I had noticed their ability to cover early on but a few like Miami and Army I hadn't. Az and Org have been autofade for last 2 months.

The SoS rankings are all either sec teams or a school that plays a fairly tough schedule and had an out of conference game vs sec school.

Completely missed out on temple and e mich being spread killers.

Hope your retirement is filled with good times.

 

[russ1945]

Based on average ranking and early line movement my top 4 picks are: S.D. State - Washington - Ohio State - Penn State