AutoClub 500 @ California

Maxx40 · Feb 22, 2009

CUP YTD

3-1 +3.65 units (Props)
6-2 +3.80 units (Match-Ups)
0-3 - 1.00 unit (Outrights)

Total: +6.45 units

Will be glad when they get to Vegas next week. Not a big fan of Daytona (plate racing) or California(a very boring track with very little fan support).

But anyway, played these today:

Props

3.00 units Kyle Busch (-130) under 7.5 (@5dimes)
This one looks too easy but I'll play the sucker.
In his short career (9 starts) Busch has an avg. finish of 9.9 at Calif...excuse me Auto Club Speedway. Since 2006 (6 starts) his avg. is 6.8 (7th, 4th, and 3rd the last 3 which is all under this number). He should be a definite Top 5 and challenge Johnson for the win.

1.00 unit Joey Logano (-115) under 21.5 (@5dimes)
Think the kid gets a Top 20 today. His inexperience showed at Daytona, but he's had a little more seat time on tracks like this.

Match-Ups

1.50 unit Kyle Busch (-120) over Greg Biffle (@5dimes)
Biffle ran 2nd here last time out, he may have to do it again to beat Kyle.

1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+105) over Greg Biffle (@5dimes)
Everyone talks about Edwards as the top threat for Roush, and he may be. But Kenseth has an avg. finish of 4.3 the last 6 races here(4 Top5's and 2 wins), 2nd only to Johnson.

1.00 unit Matt Kenseth (+173) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
I might just be throwing away money here, but I can turn down this price on Kenseth (for the reasons stated above).

1.00 Brian Vickers (+115) over Kurt Busch (@thegreek)
Little concerned about the engine change and Vickers starting in the back, but if he keeps his nose clean I still think he can crack the Top 10. One of his best tracks, hasn't finished worse than 12th in 4 races.

1.00 David Ragan (+110) over Kevin Harvick (@5dimes)
Won with him yesterday, try him again on the Cup side. Ragan's never finished worse than 16th at California, think he's a lot better than that today, could easily be Top 10. Will have to be on top the wheel to beat Harvick.

1.00 Juan Pablo Montoya (-135) over Casey Mears (@5dimes)
By the end of this, his 3rd year, Montoya will be someone to deal with. His abilty is obvious and seems to be more and more comfortable in these cars every time he returns to a track.
On the other hand, I have no idea why RCR kicked Bowyer out of the #07 for Mears.

Outrights

0.50 unit Kyle Busch (+600) @thegreek

0.25 unit Matt Kenseth (+1000) @thegreek

0.25 unit Denny Hamlin (+1500) @thegreek
Finished 3rd last race here, was 2nd in Happy Hour yesterday

Good luck to everyone.

KidKash · Feb 22, 2009

good looking card maxx, like the montoya matchup a lot. best of luck

TorontoFC · Feb 22, 2009

Good looking card Maxx but can I ask you why no love for Harvick? He finished second in the Nationwide and its his home track. I like him here. Cheers and good luck.

trytrytry · Feb 22, 2009

like the kyle busch over biffle -115 at bookmaker.played it for a unit..lets cash..

9207] KYLE BUSCH (KYLE BUSCH vrs GREG BIFFLE) -115

GVLSandlapper · Feb 22, 2009

I'm on Kyle Busch(-145) over Matt Kenseth and Mark Martin(-200) over Dale Jr. and Kyle Busch(+550) outright.

Good luck to everyone.

Maxx40 · Feb 22, 2009

kidkash, thanks, we're hoping for the best

thanks, toronto. that was more of a play on Ragan than against Harvick. i'm really high on this kid, i admit, i think he will have to be well into the top 10 to win the match-up but i think he is capable of that

try,try,try and sandlapper- lets go get it $$

GVLSandlapper · Feb 22, 2009

Close but no cigar for me. I'll get em' next week...

Maxx40 · Feb 22, 2009

1-1 (+1.85 units) Props
5-1 (+5.38 units) Match-Ups
1-2 (+1.75 units) Outrights

Total: +8.98 units For Sunday

A good two weeks to start the year, hopefully Vegas will be good to us as well.

chrishansen · Feb 22, 2009

Maxx40 said:
1-1 (+1.85 units) Props
5-1 (+5.38 units) Match-Ups
1-2 (+1.75 units) Outrights

Total: +8.98 units For Sunday

A good two weeks to start the year, hopefully Vegas will be good to us as well.

:toast:

dude you killed the matchups!!!!

11-3 on the year is outstanding :103631605

nice job, might have to tail you next race

and you nailed matt on the win, wow!!!

Liar · Feb 23, 2009

Maxx40,

Top notch capping :103631605

. Have you been that good for previous seasons as well ? I am new to the site. When do 5dimes put these Under / Over rank props up ?

Maxx40 · Feb 23, 2009

thanks chris, just don't want to fall flat on my face after a good start, thats exactly what I did last year and I never really recovered.

Maxx40 · Feb 23, 2009

welcome to the rx liar, glad to have you on board.

this is the 5th season I've wagered on NASCAR (I think the 3rd or 4th here on this forum), never had a bad year until 2008. Never want to have another one of those.

really the main reason I post is that it keeps me disciplined, especially with money/unit management. its also good to get other viewpoints and if you do make a mistake someone here will probably let you know about it.

GVLSandlapper · Feb 24, 2009

Hey Maxx,

Other than obviously watching the races, how do you keep up with all the series? I currently read Jayski for info. Are there any other places you know of to keep up to date with NASCAR stuff that might help with capping?

chrishansen · Feb 24, 2009

GVLSandlapper said:
Hey Maxx,

Other than obviously watching the races, how do you keep up with all the series? I currently read Jayski for info. Are there any other places you know of to keep up to date with NASCAR stuff that might help with capping?

i get a pretty good scoop on the rcr cars. as a former employee i have a few friends one of which is in the pits for the 29 car who can pass along some good info every once in awhile. somtimes the best info is on the tires and the drivers attitude towards them, some races have drivers pissed with the tires and if its a bigh driver look for them to have a shit race just so they can rip the tire manufactor a new one.

starting about 3-4 years ago i did well on harvick, the guys always said a real good top 3-5 in the busch race would result in a very strong top 3 or win in the winston race. worked out well if i remember correctly

and for the record i hate the rcr team owner and root against his cars every race, but good info i will put some money down and root for the guys

i will post some info on the races if it seems worth posting, also if you have a question about a car for upcoming race hit me up. i will see what i can find out. just dont go crazy with them
:toast:

Maxx40 · Feb 25, 2009

Hey Sandlapper, how are things in the upstate?

Since I grew up around racing, locally and in NASCAR (I'm a native of Darlington) keeping up with the overall general aspect of the sport is second nature to me, its been a love of mine since I was a kid. I've always wanted to be involved with this sport in a professional manner but outside of a few voluntary/promotional stints never got in that door. Still dreaming that one day.....

I try to stay up to date with info from from jayski, NASCAR.com, racingone.com SceneDaily.com and publications like NASCARScene and NASCAR Illustrated. I also have a few friends that have some involvement in the motorsports community and they keep me up to date occasionally with some notes of interest.

Most of the sites I mentioned above have info that you can use for capping but my favorite is racing-reference.info. Lots of stats, past history and stuff.

tlento · Feb 26, 2009

http://www.nascar.com/
http://www.jayski.com/
http://www.driveraverages.com/
http://racingone.com/
http://race2win.net/
http://www.onebadwheel.com/index.php

tlento · Feb 26, 2009

Liar, 5dimes adds additional matchups, (usually bigger favorites and underdogs), and props a couple hours before the start of the race.

GVLSandlapper · Feb 26, 2009

Maxx,

Things are good in the Upstate for the most part. The economy has taken a downturn but overall I still think we're better off than most of the country. I wish we had a track as close to us as Darlington, although I do try to make it down there for the race when I can.

Thanks to everyone for the info and links. I also "cap" using my gut because while I've never had a personal involvement with the sport, I've watched it since before I can remember. The links help with finding out race history, stats etc. though.

Let's all have a good week at Vegas!