Autism Speaks 400 @Dover

[Maxx40]

CUP YTD

+07.42 units (Match-Ups)
+11.80 units (Props)
+03.42 units (Outrights)

Total: +22.64 units

Looks like no weather worries today at the Monster Mile, should be a good one today.

No big play this week but there are some plays in the better than average range.

Match-Ups

1.50 units Ryan Newman (+120) over Kasey Kahne (@sportsbook.com)
Kahne seems to be getting a lot of love today just not sure I'm buying it. He had a good run at Charlotte last week and was good in qualifying and practice but he has had problems here in the past when it comes time to race, crashing out in 4 of 10 starts and only one Top 10 (7th in 6/2006 and a 25.9 avg in those 10 races). Before Charlotte he was on a string of 3 straight finishes of 23rd or worse and to top it off they have the new Dodge engine this week so there are questions to be answered there.

On the other hand Newman has been on fire with 4 straight finishes of 4th or better and Dover is his 2nd best track statiscally over his entire career (10.5 avg in 14 starts). Was good in qualifying and practice so I'm going with the hot hand here.

1.50 units Martin Truex (-160) over David Ragan (@thegreek)
Usually don't play lines this high but love the match-up. Roush does well here but thinking Ragan may be an exception today. Was 10th in Happy Hour on Saturday but starts 26th and has been a big disappointment this season. Still has not recorded a Top 10 since Daytona in February and in 10 non-restrictor plate races his avg. is 27.6 finish and his best finish is a 17th at California. He has 5 starts at Dover with an avg. of 22.8 and a best of 14th in June of 2007.

Truex is pretty good here, his 2nd best track statiscally (11.3 avg. in 7 starts and has a win in 6/2007) has been up and down in 2009 with 3 Top 10's but also 4 finishes of 29th or worse, but was fast in last practice (4th) and starts 15th so looking at a possible Top 10 from him.

1.50 units Greg Biffle (+125) over Jimmie Johnson (@5dimes)
Its tough taking Biffle because his racing luck is so bad but he is my pick for the win today. Has a 4.16 avg over the last 6 races here including 2 wins, he starts 5th and was 8th in last practice. Having a good 2009 with 3 Top 5's and 6 Top 10's. If he avoids the brain cramps(like in the NWS race yesterday) and his racing luck is good he should be near the front at the end.

1.50 units Casey Mears (-120) over Bobby Labonte (@thegreek)
Seems like a good spot for Mears. Good, consistent track for him lately (15th, 17th, 6th and 13th last 4 here) and was 5th in Happy Hour practice. Labonte and HOF Racing is looking like Top 20-25 material at best.

1.00 unit Paul Menard (+100) over David Stremme (@5dimes)
Mostly a gut feeling here. Menard has been ok here ran well in the NWS race yesterday and actually has 3 Top 15's in the past 6 races. Stremme has been disappointing driving for Penske.

Props

1.50 units Kurt Busch (-115) over 12.5 (@5dimes)
In a nutshell, just don't like the blue duece today

1.00 unit Kasey Kahne (+100) over 11.5 (@5dimes)

1.00 unit Mark Martin (-130) under 10.5 (@5dimes)
28 Top 10's in 45 starts, good enough for me

Outrights

1.00 unit Greg Biffle (+800) @thegreek
0.50 unit Matt Kenseth (+1200) @sportsbook.com
0.25 unit Ryan Newman (+1650) @thegreek
0.25 unit Martin Truex (+3000) @thegreek

Good luck to everyone!

 

[tlento]

took Burton over Harvick to win 2 beans... gl

 

[tlento]

added Mears over Labonte for 2 beans, make or break day...

 

[Maxx40]

liked burton in that match-up as well, harvick is awful right now but burton's speeds were down in practice and qualifying, the only reason i didn't play it

 

[RedElephants]

Red Elephant Nascar (Autism 400)

Good luck!

 

[GVLSandlapper]

Wow, I wish my book would come out with lines as early as yours does.

 

[Maxx40]

thanks red elephant, gl2u2

sandlapper. i use 5dimes, olympic(thegreek), and sportsbook....5 dimes is by far my favorite and their match-ups are up by early race day morning. the greeks match-ups are actually up the night before a day race, both are good books if you want to think about switching or adding

 

[GVLSandlapper]

I actually love my book for everything except NASCAR, and once you get settled in somewhere it's a pain in the ass to switch. Oh well, maybe one day I'll stop being lazy.

My book didn't have any of your matchups again so I went with Denny Hamlin(-115) over Kasey Khane.

 

[Boxer22]

I took Kasey Kahne at 12/1 and Tony Stewart at 15/1...good luck.

 

[ATP]

love edwards today, no thoughts on him maxx? nd biffle is impressive here, gotta little thing going where if the streak continues it pts to johnson

 

[GVLSandlapper]

That 11 team is cursed. Last time I bet on them. LOL

 

[Boxer22]

15/1 would have been nice if smoke would have been able to hold on for me..... oh well.

 

[CLefty]

15/1 would have been nice if smoke would have been able to hold on for me..... oh well.

For some of these long shots, I prefer wagering a top 3 finish. You give up some odds, but driver does not have to win.

 

[Maxx40]

Combination of a poor capping job on my part and piss poor luck resulted in a -4.73 unit day on Sunday.

Go 2-3 on match-ups, 1-2 on props and 0'fer on outrights.

Totally wrong on Kahne and Kurt Busch and the 3 match-up losses were lost by a total of 5 positions, so most of the blame goes to me with a little to lady luck.

Looking for better things at Pocono this week.