Author's NCAA Football

[authorbytrade]

Early in the season I will play late and move to playing earlier as the season progresses. Right now, I just want as much information as possible. Modified flat betting for this sport as well but I will bump some games up over the season.

Record 0-0 = 0% 0.0 units

Nebraska +7.5 Willing to play this with the hook at no extra cost. Always seen Rhule as a defensive coach and with the entire off-season to prepare I think he'll have a good defensive approach. Think this will be a lower scoring, grind it out type of affair, as Minny HC Fleck doesn't mind that approach either. As Nebraska's talent and wins have diminished they've shown a propensity for losing close games, I think that continues here but that new QB Sims can make enough plays with his legs to keep this one really close.

 

[indiana]

author....nice call and write up buddy.....
BOL this weekend.....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Record 1-0 = 100% +1.00 units

Georgia Tech +8 (-120) My numbers make this game 8, so I am willing to buy the hook and equal my numbers. I am aware that historically this is not a moneymaking buy. Lots enamored with new HC Brohm for Louisville, I am less enthused and even less enthused about his QB of choice in Plummer. GT played better for HC Key down the stretch last year but most importantly they played tougher. With 7 returning defensive starters and plenty of film on Brohm's offense, I think Key will have his defense better prepared than some think. Most of the players at GT have not played any important feeling football games, this one in a big stadium under the national spotlight will be that type of game. Always willing to fade 1st game coaches as visiting favorites.

Hawaii +3.5 Line move down has damaged this play and is one of the disadvantages of betting late early on. I like the Warriors to win this SU so I will grab more than a FG. Hawaii actually looked pretty good vs Vandy and no matter what you think that is still an SEC team with SEC talent on the defensive side of the ball. Stanford is depleted, hired a dud of a coach, and had one of the worst recruiting years in the history of Power 5 football. Should be some doldrums within the team as those things are hard to out-hype in the locker room. Not an easy place to travel & I don't think Hawaii should be catching points.

 

[indiana]

author.....BOL with tonight's action buddy....
on Haw. with you....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Record 2-1 = 66.7% +.9 units

For 9-2-23

2X Play S. Alabama +7 (-120) This is a game where the uncertainty of early season lines can benefit dog players. I think after 5 weeks of this season we'll look back and retro-line this game at +1.5. I like the strength vs strength matchup here of the Tulane rush O vs the Jaguars rush D. S. Alabama is a team I like a lot this season and catching them here, as a TD dog, in a game they can win outright seems solid.

La. Tech/SMU over 66 Early season total plays based solely on my numbers and expected pace. I did reduce the expected total relative to the reduced number of plays run by 3.9% to account for the new clock measures but still made the number 69.7. Probably not a big enough difference for some bettors, but this is not 2001 and anyone making numbers where their totals differ from the posted number by 15 points, etc. are likely producing bad numbers. La. Tech moved the ball better than their scoring showed LW and I think SMU can move the ball at will in this one to the tune of 500+ total yards. Only over worth a shot this week.

UTSA -2 Better team, better coach, laying less than a FG. Sign me up.

Toledo +10 (-120) I made the number 10 but like the dog. I am, therefore, willing to buy to match my number in case my early season numbers are strong. I am aware that this buy has not been a long term moneymaker. Loss of DC Walters cannot be overstated and the talent and coaching exodus on that side of the ball will be felt. Toledo's back 7 on D is good enough to keep them in this game.

Wyoming +14 Cowboys HC Bohl is one of the best in the country and the team he will field and the conditions of this game match up well with his preferred coaching style. Wyoming will make this game slow and dirty. They have the ground game and defensive talent to slow this game down. Great coaches are generally even better with extra time to prepare for important games. Bohl was great in championship games at NDSU (his teams always played well and were well prepared) and he's gone 4-0-1 ATS in bowl games at Wyoming while fielding less talented teams. This game sets up like those instances and I expect Bohl to have a fantastic game plan. Tech has big expectations this year and Oregon on deck, Wyoming is about culture and has Portland St. on deck. Tech better be careful or their season will be over after 2 weeks.

 

[indiana]

author........BOL with your weekend action buddy....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Both DD dogs could have won outright. S. Alabama was dramatically outplayed & the total had no chance. Swing game went against me but UTSA was outplayed as well but managed to stay in the game.

Record 4-4 = 50% -1.4 units

 

[authorbytrade]

Wanting to get to the window a little earlier this week. Value collecting as much information as possible but some numbers were starting to slip.

NC State +7.5 I think that road win at UConn is going to look much better once the season is over. Better coach on my sideline.
Nebraska +3 Missed the +3.5's here and I think all the +3's will be gone by Saturday.
Miami +4

Northwestern +2 I watched the entire UTEP vs Incarnate Word game. IW was in this game way more than the numbers may indicate. UTEP was able to simply play bully ball and it barely worked. Northwestern isn't great but I think they can avoid being bullied and this game will have a "circle the wagons" type of locker room mentality that last week's road game did not. I think this will be Northwestern's best effort of the year and they are not at a significant talent deficit.

East Carolina +3
Ohio +3.5
Georgia Southern -7 (-130)
UConn +3
SDSU +14.5
Eastern Michigan +20.5

Mississippi St. -9 I don't bet many favorites but my numbers have the Bulldogs running and passing for 250+. That combined with the unusual road trip for Arizona and the spread staying in single digits have me willing to lay it with the home team.

Southern Miss +31 May be one of the best situational spots that will be offered all season long.

California +7 (-120) Was really hoping this line would move to more than a TD but it's going the other way. I won't play it at less than +7 so willing to buy to get it there. I'm a little surprised the line moved in this direction as I was hoping their win last week vs N. Texas would be discounted.

Houston/Rice under 52.5

Will add more totals and FCS games as I like them.

 

[indiana]

author....here's to a solid and profitable week 2 buddy......indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Adds for 9-9-23

Texas Tech +7 (-120)

 

[authorbytrade]

Got to the window a little earlier and beat most of the line moves, right now it matters not still just a bunch of losing wagers. Not really too many close calls either of the 14 bets I feel like only one of them proved to be a tossup and it was the late add. Of the original 13 wagers I was pretty clearly either on the right side or the wrong side and the value I found didn't really translate to wins.

Record 10-12 = 45.5% -4.3units

 

[authorbytrade]

I did not know I was supposed to be posting the rotation numbers, I will begin to do so. Some of the numbers I got slipped this week. This will be the last week I wait to make the predominance of my wagers.

#112 Army/UTSA under 44
#124 Louisville/Indiana over 50
#126 Iowa St./Ohio under 42.5
#128 Ilinois +15
#132 Miss. St. +10 (-120)
#137 NMSU +1.5
#172 Charlotte +7.5
#174 SJSU/Toledo over 57
#176 Florida +7 (-120)
#177 Miami (OH) +14
#189 G.T./Ole Miss over 63
#196 Purdue +3 (-125)
#210 Arizona St. +3

 

[authorbytrade]

Numbers moving my way, which is good.

Too many injuries piling up for the Sun Devils, I'm going to buy back.

#209 Fresno St. moneyline -155

 

[indiana]

author.....appreciate your using the rotation numbers (don't believe its required)...
BOL with all your action this weekend buddy.....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

For 9-23-23

#322 West Virginia +6
#336 Clemson +2
#383 SMU +7.5 (-120)
#343 BYU +9.5
#376 Washington St. +3
#364 Utah St. -4 (-120)

 

[authorbytrade]

Will update my record mid-week. Looks like 8-10 since my last accounting.

Getting in early this week:

#139 Florida +3
#153 Eastern Michigan +8
#137 South Carolina +12.5
#166 Wyoming -14 (-120)
#215 WVU +11
#217 SDSU +11

 

[indiana]

author....BOL with all your action this weekend buddy....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Adding for 9-30-23

#128 UConn +4.5
#194 Boise St./Memphis over 58.5

Getting off of my Wyoming position:
#165 New Mexico +14.5 (-120)

 

[authorbytrade]

Getting in early this week again:

#301 Jacksonville St./MTSU under 52.5
#304 NMSU -6.5
#310 La. Tech +7 (-120)
#316 Oklahoma St. +13 (-120)
#344 North Texas/Navy over 60
#364 Iowa St. +7 (-120)
#379 Washington St. +3.5
#370 Wyoming +6
#382 California +10

 

[authorbytrade]

Updating prior to the weekend, 6 games left on this previously posted card.

Record 24-28 = 46.2% -6.8units

Adding for 10-7-23

#349 C. Michigan/Buffalo under 52.5