Author NCAA Football 2024-25

[authorbytrade]

And away we go. Will probably bet too many dogs and not enough totals, we will see. Best wishes to everyone.

#142 Minnesota +2

Line movement across the zero adds some value to the home team at +2. Should be a close game, both teams will want to run the ball and weather and field conditions should enhance that. Fleck is a good coach and with extra time to prep for a winnable game, his team will not lose due to lack of preparation. Carolina plays soft, its just their nature. I don't think this will be a soft game. I made the game Minn -1.2 so the move to +2 gives me enough value to wager.

#308945 North Dakota St. +10.5

New coach for NDSU but from the same bloodlines and they have proven that when they change coaches they can keep the culture, talent, and expectations. NDSU has FBS level talent at all positions including along the OL and LB. This is a fade of style and play. I don't value coach Prime and his offense is a showcase for his QB son, once they couldn't run the ball last year the offense suffered immensely. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here. NDSU will play slow, methodical, physical football and will not be intimidated by the venue or opponent. If Colorado can't generate lots of FD's they might get frustrated at how little they have the football. This is a DD dog that can win the game SU and I think the extra prep time favors NDSU immensely. NDSU knows who they are, CU hopes they are who they know. I made the game NDSU +6.8

 

[authorbytrade]

And, getting good numbers rears it's head immediately! Sports wagering is unforgiving.

Perfect setup in the Colorado game as I get the cover but Colorado wins SU so I can continue to bet against them at inflated numbers. They can't run the ball and quality physical teams are going to pound on them regardless of what Sanders does from the QB position. Maybe deserved a better fate in the Minnesota game as that game was a dead heat and could have gone either way, UNC made a 45 yard FG and Minny missed a 47 yard FG, that was the game. A PUSH is probably a worthy result though and at least I finally gained some benefit from my CLV.

NCAA Football Record:
Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 0 - 0 -1 = 0.0% = +0.0 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 0 -0 -0 = 0.0% = +0.0 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 1 - 0 = 100% = +1 units

Overall = 1-0-1 = 100% = +1.0 units

For 9-30-24:

#148 Stanford +9.5

I have never liked Dykes as a coach, I know he took a team to the National Title game in 2022....with another coaches roster. I do like Stanford HC Taylor though. Stanford has been rough and has been poor as a home dog recently so I'm bucking some trends. Both teams return a plethora of starters and have weak opponents on deck. When Stanford was at their best in the PAC-12 it was when they played bully-ball while the rest of the league played soft. I think Stanford can take that approach here. I don't like soft teams early in the season as a physical opponent can create situations that were not replicable in practice. Taylor is smart on the offensive side, I think he'll use his improved OL and mobile QB to try and control the game flow and limit the number of plays his secondary has to see. Obviously, TCU wants to do the opposite and that will be the battle, but I have nearly 10 points to compensate. I'll take them. I made the number Stanford +7.2 so my line value is minimal but I think my weighted numbers are overcompensating for how poor Stanford was late in the season LY and the extra prep-time favors Taylor's prep.

 

[authorbytrade]

NCAA Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 0 - 0 -1 = 0.0% = +0.0 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1 -0 = 100.0% = +1 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 1 - 0 = 100% = +1 units

Overall = 2-0-1 = 100% = +2.0 units

For 9-31-24:

#186 Florida +3 (-115)

Two underachieving programs, with two underachieving coaches. I loved Miami, FL QB Ward when he was at Incarnate Word and he had a great year last year at Washington St. Much is being made of his transfer to Miami, Fl in the off-season, however, two things Ward with discover here: coaching matters and Cristobal just ain't it and road trips in the PAC-12 will in no way prepare you for road trips to an SEC school. Florida QB Mertz is nothing special, and neither his HC Napier, but The Swamp is and it makes the difference. Florida upset a good Utah team as a home dog in a nearly identical setup to open the 2022 season. I made the line Pick and get some real value grabbing a +3.

#309119 East Tennessee St. +35

This wager is about coaching, I really like new ETSU HC Lamb. What he did at Gardner-Webb was a miracle and he deserved this step up. He'll get another one after a few years here and should be coaching in the FBS in 4-5 years. Oddly, Gardner-Webb, with Lamb as HC, opened at Appalachian St. LY and now Lamb returns to open the season at App. St. again with his new team. More than 20 players on the ETSU squad will be familiar as they moved from Gardner-Webb to ETSU with their coach. Lamb covered that game losing 24-45 as a 22 pt dogs. App. St. is the much better team and own a strong homefield but HC Clark has respect for Lamb and I don't think will go out of his way to embarrass him in his debut especially with App. St. catching Clemson in a juicy down spot next week. If App. St. is up big I'd expect star QB Aguilar to find the pine early. The extra prep time strongly favors ETSU as its Lamb's debut and he'll want to establish his team culture (we can win any game) while the App. St. players might be peaking ahead to the step up game vs Clemson. I made the line +39.7 so I'm going against my number and putting my dollars on Lamb's coaching skills.

#193 UNLV +3.5
#193 UNLV/Houston Over 54.5

Line movement play in this one as the game has crept back to over a FG. Thats too much value to leave in a game I made +1. Sharp bettors pushed this down immediately upon the open at +3 and I don't think the movement back up is nearly as sharp.

#204 Hawaii +14.5 (-120)

Hawaii did not look good in it's opener but do get the advantage of having played a game and getting to stay home on the island. UCLA made a poor HC hire and that error was compounded when their DC bolted for USC. Traveling to Hawaii for an opening road game is not the ideal setup to enlist all new schemes on both sides of the ball. I'm no fan of Warrior HC Chang but they are better than they showed LW and they may have peaking ahead to this contest. Terrible scheduling setup for the Bruins and I think they'll be lucky to come out of this game with a W. I made the line +14 so the line is fair but I get the hook and an advantageous setup.


#183 Wyoming +7.5 (120)

New HC for Wyoming and it's a shame as I considered former HC Bohl one of the best 10 coaches in the country. They keep it in the family by promoting Bohl's DC to the HC position and promoting Bohl's actual son to DC, they gain the benefit of continuing the excellent football culture that Bohl instilled. Wyoming has an under-rated QB that the coaches love and return 7 starters to a decent defense. Bohl was excellent with extra time to prepare and don't think for a second he hasn't had the time to assist his friend and son in prepping for this one. I had Wyoming as a dog in their opener LY and it was perhaps the best game they played all season. This wager is also a fade of the dumpster fire that Arizona St. has become and my only concern here is that they know they are about to get their teeth kicked in all year in the BIG 12 and might actually be focused on a winnable game. I made then number +4.7 so I get some value.

 

[IMISREMEMBER]

Impressive author could be NY Times RX best seller thread, if you keep this up.

 

[indiana]

author.........good to see you buddy.....
BOL with all your Sat. action.........
here's to a solid and profitable season......indy

 

[authorbytrade]

A mixed. bag from Saturday, I took some definitive stances and was right and wrong. I was def wrong about QB Ward as he continues to impress and Florida had no answer for his decision making prowess. I was right about HC Lamb at ETSU, this guy can coach. Lines won't be widely available but when ETSU is getting points this year I will give them a look.

NCAA Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -0.15 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -.10 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 0 = 100% = +3 units
Totals OVER - 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units
Totals UNDER - 0 -0

Overall = 5-3-1 = 100% = +1.65 units

For 9-1-24:

LSU/USC Under 67

Both teams are extremely talented and full of high quality athletes and that is always concerning when looking at Under wagers. Couple of things have me looking to the low-side here. Both teams lose high quality Heisman Trophy winning QB's and no matter who is on your roster, those types of player are hard to replace. I can't tell you how many times last year I watched a USC play break down only for QB Williams to bail it out with individual talent. That type of playmaker is not on the USC roster this year and SEC level defenses can be unforgiving. LSU HC Kelly has been badly outreached in every opener since coming to Baton Rouge and I think that will happen today as well. Knowing this, I expect Kelly to rely less on coaching output and put his focus on physical talent. I expect LSU to run the ball a lot and use their advantage along the OL to play bully ball and try to keep the ball away from offensive genius HC Riley. I LOVE what USC did to address their defensive issues in the off-season. New DC Lynn was the best co-ordinator hire in the country in the off-season. Lynn has a boatload of talent to work with and I expect immediate improvement and for the Trojan D too, perhaps, be the most improved individual unit in the country. LSU has a new defensive staff as well too but probably its lowest level of returning talent under Kelly so far. I expect them to take a "bend but don't break" approach to defending USC and hope to use their secondary talent to face long drives rather than big plays. They have the talent to do that. I made the number for the game 64 and catching 67 gives us enough room for value. This play is not about line value though and is based on the run game approach I expect from LSU on offense and the improvement I think the Trojans will make on D that is not baked into the line.

 

[authorbytrade]

Sometimes you get them right. That''ll wrap it for Week #1. I got good numbers at good prices and, I think, timed the market well. On to Week #2.

NCAA Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -0.15 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -.10 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 0 = 100% = +3 units
Totals OVER - 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units
Totals UNDER - 1 -0 = 100% = +1.0 units

Overall = 6-3-1 = 66.7% = +2.65 units

 

[authorbytrade]

Let's get after it for Week #2.

I will track my plays vs some early lines separately from the plays I list and analyze. The plays below are based off my lines vs the openers and early numbers and many of these will be played back or used for benefit in parlays, etc. I hope to beat the closing line with these and create value. If I specifically play back against any of these, and that play is not listed and analyzed as a play I bet, I will list the line I bet back at and track that play in the same category as these plays. These lines move quickly (some are moving as I try to update my record and type this email) and some of them I missed the best numbers but played them because I expect them to move more and still create +EV.


#304 Northwestern -2.5 (missed the opener but got this before it went to -3, which is probably where it will stay)
#314 Cincinnati -1 (this line got bet down but I don't expect it to flip and think it will "bounce" off the 1)
#319 Texas -4
I won't be writing many of these up. Here, I'll look to play UM back at +7.5 or better. Normally, I would never expect that large a line move away from UM as a home dog but a couple of things made this move easy to see. Recency bias, Texas looked great LW and UM looked mediocre. The hype train is all Texas. UM is getting continual poor press about looming sanctions and penalties, the loss of HC Harbaugh to the NFL, etc. and that stuff can feed amateur betting patterns. If I don't get the move I want, I play back Michigan +6 or better and I'm comfortable with the risk I'll absorb via push rates in this total range (44.5 to 46.5)
#326 Jacksonville St./Louisville Over 55.5
#329 Baylor +15.5
#352 Florida International +5.5
#353 East Carolina +1.5 (this line has been bet down too, but this one I think is gonna flip and ECU goes off as the fave)
#368 Nevada +3
#382 Nebraska -6.5 (-122) (As I stated earlier in this thread, I'm going to be against Colorado early every week until further notice, they can't run)
#392 New Mexico St. +22.5
#399 Tennessee -4.5 (The hype train in full effect for Vols QB and team, game is in Charlotte. I prefer NC State & will be playing back at peak)

NCAA Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -0.15 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1 -1 = 50.0% = -.10 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 3 - 0 = 100% = +3 units
Totals OVER - 0 - 1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units
Totals UNDER - 1 -0 = 100% = +1.0 units

Overall = 6-3-1 = 66.7% = +2.65 units

Early line wagers:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~
Totals OVER - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~
Totals UNDER - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~

 

[authorbytrade]

For 9-6-24:

#301 BYU/SMU Over 54.5

This line will close at 56.5 or higher so we're getting some good value. I got some in on this game as low as 52.5 but think it's playable all the way to 55.5. I made the number 59.5. SMU is better than they've shown in the first 2 weeks and this spot is primed for a good outing from their offense. Off a poor performance at Nevada, then a cakewalk vs Houston Christian, they get BYU at home in front of a National TV audience, and then a buy week. This is a fully focused spot for the Mustangs. I am neither here nor there about SMU HC Lashlee but he's done an impressive job of assembling talent and positioning the program for the move up to the ACC. On the offensive side of the ball, the Mustangs can match talent with any team not ranked in the Top 15. BYU brings back 8 starters on O and were efficient in putting up 500+ yards of offense LW vs overmatched Southern Illinois. I think that BYU can create enough run/pass balance to minimize a good SMU LB unit and focus on attacking their weaker DL and secondary. On the flip side I think that BYU is going to struggle to create pressure and that SMU will finally be able to open up their passing attack. This play is really about the prime spot for SMU and about my numbers, I have a 5 pt difference from this WA number and the number I spit out. Have to bet that.

For 9-7-24:

#325 Jacksonville St./Louisville Over 58

This one could get ugly for the visitors. Jacksonville St. looked atrocious on defense LW vs a Coastal Carolina team breaking in a new QB and playing on the road. The Gamecocks D allowed chunk play after chunk play and allowed 552 yards to a team that turned the ball over twice. Coastal's offense can be unique and the Gamecocks just could not figure it out....good luck vs an even more adept offensive genius in Louisville HC Brohm. Unfortunately, for Jax St. they catch Louisville off a romper vs Austin Peay and with a bye on deck. Louisville beat Murray St. in a similar spot LY 56-0 and just torched Austin Peay 62-0 so there is some concern about Jacksonville St. putting up points BUT Jax St. HC Rodriguez is a good coach and his team found some offensive rhythm in the 4th quarter LW. I think he can create enough O here to score 14+ points and that should push this Over as the Cardinal should be able to have their way offensively. I made the number 57.5 but I like the spot for Louisville and Jax St. did a lot in the portal this year and my numbers may be off for them, they def did not pass the "eye test" well LW.

#382 Nebraska -7

This line is popping to -7.5's and I don't think it's coming back. No matter how much people love HC Deion the performance of QB Raiola LW assured that Nebraska was going to be the preferred side in this one. Nebraska HC Rhule is one of the best in the business and this game will be a coaching mismatch. Colorado QB Sanders is very good and their skill position players are talented, as is their secondary, but they cannot run the ball and they are still struggling in pass protection, eventually those two things are going to eat them up regardless of how many Heisman Trophy candidates they have on their team. Nebraska has been dying for a winner and with the hype train in full-force for Raiola and in this spot (off UTEP with only Northern Iowa on deck) the stadium should be electric. Nebraska has the defensive edge, better running game, the better coach, and the QB gap might not be as large as some think, Raiola is that good. Hard to take Nebraska as a fave considering recent history but this is a fade of Colorado and a play on Husker's HC Rhule. Rhule needs a motivational win to move the program forward and this could be that type of win. I'm playing against my numbers a bit here as I made the line -6.

 

[indiana]

author......BOL with your wk 2 action buddy....
thank you for using the Rotation Numbers....
much appreciated.....indy

 

[authorbytrade]

Keeping an eye on my early line wagers and looking for potential playback numbers on a few. Looks like I'm going to get stuck with a bad number in the FIU game but may re-bet it if I can get +7.5 (120) or better. I still think FIU is the right side. Waiting on the playback in the NC State game as well but it has hit the number I wanted, +10. I think I might be able to wring a +11 out of this one though at the Vols QB hype is out of control.

One playback so far as this got to the number I wanted but has begun to fall back, so we'll grab it.

#320 Michigan +7.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Odd timing of line movements this week. This game is slipping back so as we mentioned a couple of times we want to grab our preferred side at the best price....the +11's never materialized.

#400 2X NC State +10

 

[authorbytrade]

Forgot to post the analysis for the last game. This isn't a new wager, just a reposting with the analysis of the last bet so that you can see my thoughts.

#400 2X NC State +10

This game is being played in Charlotte, NC so the Wolfpack get a bit of regional homefield advantage, although Vols fans are sure to travel well here. I made homefield value for NC State -1.5 here. The rest of my numbers called for this game to be lined at NC State +5.4 so I made the number +3.9. Here we grab nearly a full TD full of value thus the 2X wager. Tennessee looked great LW and QB Iamaleava was light out, garnering him plenty of attention this week. The Wolfpack have a pretty darn good QB of their own though in transfer QB McCall and he has MUCH more game, and big game, experience than his counterpart. Both teams lost a lot of the defensive side of the ball but Wolfpack HC Doeren is a very good defensive coach and I expect his adjustments to be better early than Tennessee's. The Vols lost most of their secondary and were not challenged by UT-Chattanooga LW at all, they will be challenged here. Much is being made of the disparate performances from these two teams LW, Tennessee destroyed UTC while NC State struggled vs Western Carolina and the point is valid as I have those two FCS teams power-rated very similarly. Teams with good coaches make the most improvement in-season between games #1 and #2 and I think that will become even more prominent during the transfer portal era. Doeren is the superior coach in this matchup and QB Grayson was much better in the 2nd half LW as was the Pack D. I think they both make strides TW not baked into the line and this is going to be a very competitive game that the Pack has a chance to win SU.

 

[authorbytrade]

Adding for 9-7-24:

#306 Syracuse +3
#337 Eastern Michigan +25.5
#353 ECU/ODU over 53.5
#366 Illinois +5

 

[indiana]

author.....BOL with your added plays buddy....
thank you for the rotation numbers......indy

 

[tutow1951]

Thank you sir.

 

[authorbytrade]

Pretty good effort this week both betting from the bottom up and the top down. Our early line wagers were solid and created some CLV. Our additions on Saturday morning fared well.

Sorry if the record keeping seems a bit much, trying to provide some data for perspective.

NCAA Football Record:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 2 - 1 -1 = 66.7% = +.85 units
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 2 -1 = 66.7% = +.9 units
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 4 - 0 = 100% = +4 units
Faves (-1 to -3.5)
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 1 - 0 = 100% = +1 units
Totals OVER - 1 - 3 = 25.0% = -2.3 units
Totals UNDER - 1 -0 = 100% = +1.0 units
2X Dogs = 0-1 = 0.0% = -2.2 units

Overall = 11-6-1 = 64.7% = +3.25 units

Early line wagers:

Dogs (PK to +3.5) - 1 - 0 - 1 = 100.0% = +1.0 units = CLV ~ +3.0
Dogs (+4 to +9.5) - 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units = CLV ~ +2.0
DD Dogs (+10 or >) - 2 - 0 = 100.0% = +2.0 units = CLV ~ +0.5
Faves (-1 to -3.5) - 0 - 2 = 0.0% = -2.2 units = CLV ~ -1.0
Faves (-4 to -9.5) - 3 - 0 = 100.0% = +3.0 units = CLV ~ +6.5
Totals OVER - 1 - 0 = 100.0% = +1.0 units = CLV ~ +1.0
Totals UNDER - 0 - 0 = 0.0% = 0.0 units = CLV ~

Overall = 8-2-1 = 80.0% = +5.8 units
Total CLV ~ +12
CLV per play = +1.09

Playbacks:
All plays = 0 -1 = 0.0% = -1.1 units
Total CLV ~ +1.0
CLV per play = +1.0

Cumulative = 19-9-2 = 67.9% = +7.95 units

 

[authorbytrade]

Let's get it for week 3! FanDuel, Draft Kings, and now MGM? posting before Circa releases. I'm here for it. Only partial lines up so far, waiting for Circa in a couple of hours but grabbed these quickly.

Early line wagers:

#108 Kansas -7
#120 Florida St. -3.5
#188 TCU -1.5
#192 Colorado St. +9.5

 

[authorbytrade]

Don't like the card nearly as much this week so we will play less early lines and see if some value develops as lines moves and information grows

Did add a few more early line wagers:

#140 Oregon St. +14.5
#141 West Virginia -2.5
#193 Indiana/UCLA Under 48.5 (I made the number 46.5 and like catching 47,48. UCLA worse on O but kept positive D growth from LY)
#205 SDSU/California Under 50.5 (SDSU traveling after getting shutout & have offensive issues. Cal home after physical SEC game to face a good D)

 

[indiana]

author.....here's to a winning week 3 buddy.....indy