Ya, I can't disagree with anything you said. Alot will have to go right for Roger. Looking at the lines though, if Roger is +250 for the match, we know it sure as hell isn't happening in 3, and I think 5 is far more likely than 4 (though the oddsmakers completely disagree with me on that). So, I figured +750 was really good value.
As long as we see a great match, I'll gladly lose my 2 units. Best matches I remember watching in the past 3 years all involved Novak (memory stops working beyond that):
2013 French Semi's - Nadal
2014 Australian Quarters - Wawrinka
2014 Wimbledon Finals - Federer
2015 Wimbledon Finals - Federer
And EVERY time he plays Murray in a Slam, it starts off EPIC, and Murray caves after 2 sets - like last year's Australian Final... sooo anti-climactic.
I do vaguely remember some of the 2010-ish matches when Nadal was peaking. He and Novak are easily the 2 most exciting players ever in my mind. Still waiting for some geezer to tell me that there was ever a better era of tennis than this one now. I call it the Post Federer-Dominance Era - starting in 2008 when Federer finally got competition on something other than clay.
Enjoy the match!
