Aug. 5 Bases with Brief Writeups (My first handicapping post)

[nepenthe]

Hello,

I'm no experienced handicapper by any stretch of imagination, although I have been observing and learning a lot over the short time I've been here. Let me try and post my picks for a change. All lines are the best I could find at the time I'm posting this and all plays are listed pitchers only...currently it's around 12:30 A.M. EST. For all plays, whether they be for underdogs or favorites, I recommend "risking" the same amount of unit or units.

Texas +236 (Lewis) v. NYY (Clemens)

I just don't think NYY deserves to be anywhere near a -270 favorite. The pitching matchup does favor Yankees a bit - Clemens has a 3.91 career ERA against Texas, but in the last game he pitched against Texas ended up with a 9.00 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP. Clemens is capable of breaking down at any given moment judging from his recent performances. Lewis has a 4.91 career ERA against the Yankees.

When it comes to batting stats, Texas has been hitting the ball pretty well recently, while the Yankees' bats have not been very impressive at all. At +230 or greater I think Texas is worth a shot.


Baltimore -115 (Johnson) v. Minnesota (Rogers)
Baltimore blew numerous chances at a victory on Monday against Minnesota despite getting 10 hits (Minnesota got 6). I highly doubt they will drop two in a row at home after that disappointing defeat, especially given the better pitcher in Johnson against Rogers who managed a scintillating 12.60 ERA against Baltimore the last time he faced them. Look for Baltimore's hot bats to resurface tonight.

San Diego (Lawrence) +146 v. Chi Cubs (Prior)
San Diego is certainly capable of scoring a respectable number of runs as seen recently, although they can be unpredictable and rather streaky. I think SD's batting stats are at least as good as, if not better than, Cubs' bats. Lawrence's career ERA against Cubs is a good 3.63 with a 1.21 WHIP, while Prior's career ERA against SD is 7.50 with 1.33 WHIP. Add to that Prior's right shoulder contusion and I think SD has a fair chance at pulling an upset here. At +140 or better I'd give them a shot.

Cincinnati +200 (Graves) v. LA (Brown)
Los Angeles scored a respectable number of runs in their last two games, including a whopping 10 in their previous game. They had their breakout session from their recent batting woes. They had one day's rest. I'm betting they grow cold again this time around. Graves's career ERA against LA is a low 2.31, and while Brown certainly is a better pitcher, I'm betting that at +200 or better, Cincinnati has a fighting chance of pulling an upset against an LA team who I hope returns to their pathetic offensive routine.

Hoping to go 2-2 for a day's profit...some of these lines won't last long. Good luck.

 

[Duckstabber]

Nepenthe,

A few weeks ago you mentioned that you used a custom spreadsheet to keep track of your bets. I'd be very interested to have a look at that spreadsheet. Email me at duckstabber@aarhusmail.dk if that's ok with you. If you say no, that's ok too

Good luck with your MLB-picks!

 

[nepenthe]

Adding another play:

Kansas City (Snyder) v. CWS (Loaiza) OVER 9 -112

Relying on both teams' hot bats tonight.

Hoping to go 3-2 now...

Duckstabber...the only thing about the spreadsheet is that I've put some semi-personal information as part of the calculation that I'd rather not have others see. That said, it isn't too difficult to make a custom spreadsheet. I'd recommend familiarizing yourself with Excel and learning how to use the following functions:

-Basic arithmetic, i.e. sum, multiplication, percentage, computing average, etc.
-DCOUNT function - important for counting no. of wins and losses.
-DSUM - important for keeping track of profits.
-Format categories - currency, number, date, text, and other formats. Can represent date in number form, etc.

I think keeping such a spreadsheet is convenient if a bit time consuming at times. Some people prefer keeping track of things manually...in any case good luck.

 

[Dante]

good luck Nep....nice write ups

 

[Journeyman]

nepenthe...your posts are quite detailed and well written for a new capper...

Good Luck

 

[Stalker-Dude]

Great write-up! Be careful with Sandy tonight. This is not the same Cubs team that Lawrence has a career ERA of 3.63 against. With Patterson, Goodwin and Grudzielanek on the DL it does hamper a Cubs offense that ranks 22nd.


However, I don't buy into that theory Prior's career ERA is as big of a factor as you think. Yes Prior is 0-2 his last 2 starts with an ERA over 5. But don't forget for the season Prior's ERA is 3.01.


It has been my experience to notice that when pitchers come off the DL their first game back is usually just fine. It's the second game you have to worry about more than the first one. The reason is they are well rested for the first game back and it gives 5 days or so for any problems to show up while they are waiting to pitch again after they throw their first game back.


Add the fact that the Cubs waited a few extra days to make sure Prior was really o.k. even though they could have used him in that San
Francisco series tells me that Prior should have no problems tonight.


The Cubs play better on the road than they do at home. I'm looking for Prior to go the distance tonight. He is not on a pitch count like Johnson from Arizona was or Pedro from Boston was when they came back. If the Cubs lose this game it will be with their Bullpen and lack of Bats. I think they will crush Lawrence tonight as they did the last time he pitched against the Cubs. I'm playing the Runline on the Cubs. Best of luck.

 

[nepenthe]

Thanks ppl...I also have some leans on Oakland RL and Tampa Bay ML, but am staying away since Oakland price is too high right now and I'm fearing a backlash from Toronto after their embarrassing loss yesterday. For now I'm sticking with these 5 though I might look at a few others later. GL