Attn: Fishhead, Fezzik, or Lurker NBA Value question

[Hitman26]

Today in the NBA, the first half o/u on Cle NY is 96.5 -108/-108 at pinny and 96.5 or 96 at most other shopes. My qustion to you guys is this: Is taking over 95.5 -115 at good value play? Positive expectation, negative, or neutral? What is the value of a half in first half wagering in the NBA? Is this value the same on totals as well as the spread? Why don't books allow half point buying on first halfs or second halfs? I personally belive there was value in the play but I wanted to get you guys opinions on this as well because I don't have the numbers to back it up.



Thanks in advance
Hitman

 

[Railbird]

For sure value, 96 is a key number. But its better if you get a qtr instead of a half

 

[Fezzik]

Looks like close to a break even bet.

If you like the over, this is where to pull the trigger playing basically at no-vig.

 

[lurkerforages]

If you liked the over you should have taken over 95.5 -115 instead of 96.5 -108 or 96 -110.
If you can get 96 -105 then thats better than 95.5 -115.

Ignore Fezzik, this is not even close to being breakeven on these "first half" bets.
If he actually owned a database of NBA results by the quarter he would know that.

 

[Fishhead]

I am in agreement with Lurker.

 

[Fezzik]

Figure a 1st half total to be worth about 8 cents or so.

If the true line was 96.25, then over over 95.5 at -112 would be breakeven.

If the true line was 96.5 (if you trusted Pinny's number) then over 95.5 at -116 would be breekeven. I trust Pinny's number more than mosts.

I believe Lurker and Fishhead's comments were based on the market average being below 96.5. Based on that, I agree that over 95.5 -115 would be a poor bet.

I'm wrong on some things, and this looks to be the case. Overs tend to be slightly less than 50% bets. Given this, and given some 96s out there with Pinny's 96.5, over 95.5 looks to be a 52-53% bet. Not enough.

 

[Fezzik]

Quick caveat, I use a 1st half conversion factor of totals that says "1/2 a point equals 8 cents in vig". As lurker points out, this is a back of the envelope estimate, it is not based on a database.

Having said that, Lurker is wrong to call my post "not even close". If the true line was 96.5, and you played over 95.5 at -110 you would have the better of it (but just barely). So to call the over 95.5 at -115 close to novig is harldly what I'd call "not even close".

Again, I think our difference lies in the fact that I based my most post on Pinny's number likely being the best estimate of the true line (a questionable assumption). But me having a database on all this is hardly the issue here.

I welcome any comments from those with 1st half databased that will tell all how much an extra half point adds to a first half total wager's chance of winning.

 

[Jazz]

Beats me, I don't have that kind of a database, but I will say Fezzik's last 2 posts that have mentioned "I'm wrong on some things" and "I welcome any comments from those with 1st half databased that will tell all how much an extra half point adds to a first half total wager's chance of winning" indicate someone who is certainly not trying to claim 'all knowledge' and who is open to new/better information - not that Fezzik implied at ALL he wasn't before, I'm simply saying that it's welcome to see a discussion without someone claiming 'all knowledge' - it's not unusual to the extreme, it's simply welcomed on my part.

FWIW, the Bucks game tonight landed on 104 at the half which is the number most books had posted at tip-off

 

[Muddy]

I cant beileve some of you guys have been betting for a long time and havent put together a datbase for first half or quarters.

 

[Jazz]

Scorp, don't look at me - only been doing this 'virtually' for a couple of years, and never had to be too concerned about putting a database together.

However, since I know how to construct mainframe databases (used to do it for a living), eventually I'll apply it to PC's and start ramping in all the good numbers for the NBA, college and NFL. When I get around to it, which I expect is most peoples' excuses for not doing it yet.

 

[Fezzik]

When one has a conveyor belt full of money streaming towards you, it is hard to take time out to drop your bag, go to the side of the conveyor belt and pick up the bills falling to the side.

Having said, that I fully agree. Database upgrades is getting higher and higher on my todo list.

 

[Railbird]

Databases have a way of deceiving people. However it is insteresting that your not allowed to buy hooks for halfs. I think a hook for a half is worth 11 or 12 cents.