At what point do you walk away???

[Bavaro]

I am talking about when you are up for a week, NOT down...

My biggest problem is cutting myself off when I am UP. I usually am good about cutting my losses if/when I get down to an amount I am not comfortable with. I usually see people getting in trouble when they are down and then doubling or tripling down to get back to even. My big problem is setting a threshold ceiling number of when to walk when I am WINNING. Perfect example was this weekend, got up big after squeeking out that Cal win by the hair on my nuts, and then losing it all back yesterday with some bad beats, going negative a little, and then getting back into positive territory again late last night with Miami and then with ASU getting very lucky in the second half (thanks tim floyd)

Seriously though...what are your guys thoughts on this? Would love to hear how anyone else has managed this in the past....Thanks...Bavaro:toast:

 

[Bavaro]

Just a quick addition to my post: I am sure you all have been there, but when you get up big, you want more...that is the problem...never being satisfied...it becomes not about the money and more about the thrill of the chase....the WINNING....such a ball buster of a game we play....I learn lessons every week...I wish I could set a system for myself and STICK TO IT....easier said than done...

 

[MikRetSam]

if you play different units, increase your bets when winning, decrease when losing............
most people do the opposite, thats why 99% lose

seems like your doing it right

 

[DA_MOSS]

Personally, I set myself a bar. If I hit that number; I only play with what is left over..

EXAMPLE: Lets say I set my bar at $500 and after Wednesday I am up $770. I have $270 to play with. If I continue winning, I may make my bar $1000.

Like this week I am up $1760 and I dont want to go below $1500. So I made 2 bets today @ $110 each , guaranteeing me my number.

Hope this helps a little

 

[boyzfan]

bavaro,
i am right there with you. i don't how many times i was up during football and gave it all back sunday. i got up this weekend and at one point had usc for a larger sum than i normally bet, well i bought the bet back and ate the juice and thank goodness i did. because i would have been even today. like i have been on a lot of occasions. i don't really have a great piece of advise other than don't bet more on games just because you are up. this is something i am still trying to discipline myself to do. this is why books are so successfull and stay in business, because they know they will get it back. i don't what your bank roll is, but i try to look at it on a monthly basis. up 100 a week is equal to 400 a month. which to me is a nice bit of extra cash at the end of the month. i hope i helped a little. great question by the way.

 

[NickfromNJ]

if you play different units, increase your bets when winning, decrease when losing............
most people do the opposite, thats why 99% lose



That right there is the key to winning vs. losing. That behavior is more important than any "system", any handicapping tools, any hot touts picks. If you can do that, you have a fighting chance of coming out ahead.

 

[Bavaro]

Moss- you definitely got it right. This week, after some nice wins, I came a "unit" shy of my bar...was still up A LOT, but wasn't at that perfect, round number I had in my head, so that is what kept me going...for whatever reason, being that one unit short of one nice and even stack is what kept me in it, and then I ended up fighting to finish the week just above even, when in all reality I could've walked with a nice number. It's tough. You definitely play it smart though, I like your style.


And yes, Mike that is pretty much what I have been doing and it keeps me out of trouble, it is just finding that bar (or even something close to the bar) and then handing the laptop over to my wife to hide LOL

 

[MikRetSam]

i was up 7k and ended up even for the week, but im not mad, its one continous day for me, you wont win as much if you limit yourself because your up....... that doesnt make sense.....

 

[mr.hand]

I know I have always heard increase when on a winning streak and decrease when losing but yet how much water does that hold when the majority of bettors lose anyway?

It's gambling either way, how many times have you been up and not pull the trigger because you dont wanna be greedy and give your profits away only to see that those games would have hit. Same thing on the other hand, you are down and you pull the trigger only to lose, or you dont pull the trigger only for those games to hit.

There is no method to any of this madness.

 

[ScreaminPain]

you posed this question"....at What point do you walkaway?"

Why would you walk away at all....especially while winning!:think2:

The only reason to leave is if you don't have confidence in your abilities. If you "follow" other posters, or if you made a few winning stabs yourself and you know that you were "lucky" to score some cash, then you may consider it. But, if you are a solid 'capper with a certifiable track record, then you already know what your winning percentage will be, so forge on.

Don't be afraid of winning!

 

[MikRetSam]

I know I have always heard increase when on a winning streak and decrease when losing but yet how much water does that hold when the majority of bettors lose anyway?

It's gambling either way, how many times have you been up and not pull the trigger because you dont wanna be greedy and give your profits away only to see that those games would have hit. Same thing on the other hand, you are down and you pull the trigger only to lose, or you dont pull the trigger only for those games to hit.

There is no method to any of this madness.

its tough, i agree especially w/ the latter........ but when im up, im fvckin sending it in

 

[DA_MOSS]

i was up 7k and ended up even for the week, but im not mad, its one continous day for me, you wont win as much if you limit yourself because your up....... that doesnt make sense.....

What doesnt make sense is you losing 7k in one week

 

[Bavaro]

Thanks fellas for your input... it takes a lot of discipline... seems like we don't just have a hard time losing, but we also have a hard time WINNING.

Need to set that bar and learn to take it and walk.

But that leads me to another question- anyone feel free to chime in....say your "bar" system like Moss uses (and I like), for hypothetical purposes is a G. And your winning week takes you to 900. Do you play one more hundred to get you to your bar, or do you walk at 900?? What if trying to get that extra hundred loses and now your up only 790 instead. That is where the mental mindfuck begins..."Shit, I was just up 900 and now I am "down" to 790...shit, I can get that back- I am up anyways.".....


Sound familiar? We all have fucked little mental dialogues in our heads...not to mention an entirely separate topic that could start it's own thread which is eliminating the "coulda shoulda wouldas" out of our thinking...I coulda taken Virginia not Clemson yesterday ... Why did I get greedy and put action on the second half when I had won the first?? Why did I puss out on putting light action on the easy winner, and put heavy action on the big loser? LOL! the shit goes on and on.

I am pretty much moving past all of that and am really just focusing on establishing that "bar" high or low. It has never been a problem if/when I get down like I said, it is knowing when to walk when I am UP. Tough stuff.

 

[mr.hand]

Think about it, for every game Clemson has pasted some doormat, they lose to shitty Virginia yesterday. How do you predict that?

Make your selections based on your own knowledge and thinking and hope to hell you are on the right side.

Like the Pens today..............cmon Crosby, Mr. Next Gretzky, and Mr. Malkin, pull your team out of this funk and get off the Island with a convinving win!!!!!

 

[Bavaro]

you posed this question"....at What point do you walkaway?"

Why would you walk away at all....especially while winning!:think2:

The only reason to leave is if you don't have confidence in your abilities. If you "follow" other posters, or if you made a few winning stabs yourself and you know that you were "lucky" to score some cash, then you may consider it. But, if you are a solid 'capper with a certifiable track record, then you already know what your winning percentage will be, so forge on.

Don't be afraid of winning!

I hear what you are saying, but that is not what I am talking about. Perfect example is the poster that was up 7k and is now even. Even though he doesn't seem bothered by that (which is insanely impressive)that is a prime example of why you walk when you are winning. Is it not?

If he had established a "bar" like Moss talks about, and like I am trying to figure out, you would end up keeping a lot more over the long haul then giving that shit back. This is a lucrative game for the books and for vegas for a reason... most dont know when or how to stop when they are down OR up...I am working at not becoming one of those statistics and am doing a good job at it as I am up on the year by a good margin, but if I was more disciplined, I would be up a lot MORE. And of course there is obviously a greed factor involved in all of this as well

:money8:

 

[woodypaige]

Your the only one that can answer your own question.
It comes down to whether or not you enjoy gambling as a hobby or as an addiction.

I don't need to say anything more.:toast:

 

[PeterGriffin]

I tend to keep my bets pretty consistent whether I'm up or down. I look at each game as a separate entity. The players on the court don't know if I'm on a hot or cold streak, so I don't think that affects the way the game plays out.

And here is something I think is VERY important, but 99% of cappers completely dismiss -- focus on HOW you are capping games, not just wins and losses. Winning 8 games in a row doesn't really mean shit if you got lucky on half of them with backdoor covers, bad refereeing, etc. Same is true for losses... if you capped the games correctly but got screwed by a miracle 3 at the buzzer, bad calls, etc., you're doing a lot better than your record would indicate. I view sports betting like poker. Getting lucky and sucking out on the river may give you the pot, but it doesn't mean you played the hand correctly.

Personally, my biggest problem is always wanting to get back to the "highest point." For instance, if I drop $500 into an online account and run that up to $4k, I won't be happy if I end up cashing out $2.5k. I'll be pissed that I cost myself $1.5k, not happy that I won 2 grand. I know, it's a little nuts...

 

[Bavaro]

Your the only one that can answer your own question.
It comes down to whether or not you enjoy gambling as a hobby or as an addiction.

I don't need to say anything more.:toast:

Woody, I think that the majority of us are addicted to our hobby. @):homer:


As my good buddies girlfriend said to him the other day "You don't have a gambling problem, you have a gambling solution."

I hear ya though.

 

[Broncos625]

This is a great question. I've actually struggled
with this myself. While I don't have a set number as a bar, if I am up a nice number by say Friday, I'll take the weekend off and be happy. The problem is, what is a "nice" number? Well let's just say that yesterday and today are the first two days I've taken off in a row in quite some time.

After Wednesday this past week, I was up $1700 (my weeks run Mon-Sun). I figured wow, this is a nice chunk for three days, I'll stop. Then Thursday came and I thought, well it's the last night for NBA so I have to play. I split my two plays (lost $100 in juice). Now Friday, I followed a good capper here, again split, (lost $100 in juice again) And I lost an NHL play (first one I've ever played and lost $525). Now my $1700 week was down to $975, still pretty good, but not as good as it "should have" been. But it didn't stop there, I played Saturday. Luckily, I swept plus I hit a three teamer to make me up almost $4K for the week. Now if I would've lost on Saturday, my nice week could've been a shitty week. After that, I was up to a great number and used what happened Thurs and Fri as kind of a lesson to take yesterday and today off.

Maybe this should tell me to NOT have a ceiling. If i would've stopped at $1700, I'd have missed out on another $2K+. Or maybe I just gamble too much.

 

[Bavaro]

Broncos- you bring up a GREAT point. That is why I think that it is important to establish that bar or "nice" number...I think that in the case of this week, you defied the odds and came out great at plus 4K....but that could have easily swung the other way and had you fighting to get back or above even with me on the late games last night...maybe not.
regardless, either way, you finished stong and had a great comeback....wish I couldve done the same
What you pulled off is exactly what I was hoping to do by not stopping at my "near perfect" amount that I was up Saturday night. Good thought for food...cheers brother.