The 3 years this thread has been up. http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051
If you ask a ? And start the thread up by saying something a few will jump in....most years it starts after the 1st week.
Ace I am sure you have answered this question many times but I will ask again. Since I dont know any sharps or dont have access to ask one, on a avg Saturday with NCAAF card, how many games do sharps bet on? What about NCAAB on a typical Saturday?
A sharp bettor makes smarter decisions than the squares who populate the casual betting public. It’s easy to tell which bettors fall into which category. The sharps are the ones making money over the long term. It takes a lot of luck for squares to reach the magic 52.4-percent success rate needed to break even on standard –110 bets. Luck is invariably short-term.
so...there is no answer to your ??..... It can be 1 to 10 plays on any saturday...A key got I follow in New York only bets 3 games a weekend and has been winning that way for over 10 years.
Ace
hey ace, freeneasy here
iam an amuture handicapper and i've designed a more or less 'catch all' handicapping system for football and basketball. the system itself relies on team power ratings.
i've used the power ratings by Team Rankings' and there is, at least in my opinion, a seeming pretty decent accuracy about them but Team Rankings has 13 different catagories of power ratings for each team, iow a power rating for each of the 13 different areas of a teams production, which is good. for instance they have an "overall power rating' a 'predictive power rating' a home power rating, a road power rating, neutral power rating ect.
ok that said team rankings also gives out, according to their ratings a game winner, a spread winner and a totals winner. in trying to detemine a spread winner i just cant figure out which catagory they use to a determine how many points a team should win or lose by. i mean do they use the overall or the predictive or the home/road power rating in determing the spread they come up with? i dont know.
ive used the overall ratings alone with my system. ive used the predictive ratings alone with my system, the home and road ratings with my system, and i can say that in some instances i had both brillient success and miserable failure.
are you familiar with the power ratings that Team Tankings puts out and and which of these 13 catagories they use to detemine their spreads? i just cant figure this one out. if your not familiar with their site maybe you could take a quick look-see and tell me what you think.
i guess basically iam looking for the strongest spread ratings to be found
thanks ace
free
iam an amuture handicapper and i've designed a more or less 'catch all' handicapping system for football and basketball. the system itself relies on team power ratings.
i've used the power ratings by Team Rankings' and there is, at least in my opinion, a seeming pretty decent accuracy about them but Team Rankings has 13 different catagories of power ratings for each team, iow a power rating for each of the 13 different areas of a teams production, which is good. for instance they have an "overall power rating' a 'predictive power rating' a home power rating, a road power rating, neutral power rating ect.
ok that said team rankings also gives out, according to their ratings a game winner, a spread winner and a totals winner. in trying to detemine a spread winner i just cant figure out which catagory they use to a determine how many points a team should win or lose by. i mean do they use the overall or the predictive or the home/road power rating in determing the spread they come up with? i dont know.
ive used the overall ratings alone with my system. ive used the predictive ratings alone with my system, the home and road ratings with my system, and i can say that in some instances i had both brillient success and miserable failure.
are you familiar with the power ratings that Team Tankings puts out and and which of these 13 catagories they use to detemine their spreads? i just cant figure this one out. if your not familiar with their site maybe you could take a quick look-see and tell me what you think.
i guess basically iam looking for the strongest spread ratings to be found
thanks ace
free
Every system has Computer predictions or you are doing it by hand....I have to say...I dont use power rating as one of my view...but I do use parts of it..
I look at the site...1st look I'm not sure what they are using....do you know the record of each week??....for me to use...I would have to look into it in the off season.
I did book mark it...so I will look into it....have you look at my "myline" http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=352051 link....it makes a line...its help
me win 15 out of 18 years. let me know if you have a record for the system...it would help if it was 3 years worth!!!
Ace
thanks for the fast reply ace, preciate it
no i dont have 3 years of results as i completely laid off for the last couple of years. but what i can tell you is at just about the beginning of football season i dropped a hundred dollars into my offshore and from there built that into a little short of 5,000 but the other half of that truth is now iam down to 2300. still up but not so up as i was. same thing before i laid off for the last couple fo years, took 300 dollars, hit a 4 team parlay and built it up to 8,000 from there and just like that in 5 or 6 maybe 7 bets towards the end of the colledge football season when texas beat usc for the bcs was the big straw for me. put me out and down to betting with the imaginary money the offshores give you as bonus points. yeah that sc game, i think they were minus 6 or 7 or something, that was the straw.
but yeah i developed a spread system, and i kind of like it. but i feel to get the best out of it i need the strongest number i can find as my system is strictly 'by the numbers' no other motivational factors involved.
went to dunkels website but the ratings he has are from week 5 of the colledge basketball season. so i used his numbers today and for instance in the drexel / fair game he has fairfield with a rating of 59.50 and in week 5, which he has'nt updated he has fairfields rating at 54.40. thats a 5 point switch. i shot him an email asking him about any updates and how can i registar to receive his weekly updates but that was a week ago and no reply. so i dont know
but i did go to 'my line' ace and thats not what iam looking for. i am looking for an strong power type rating made for each division 1 team thats been designed for making a basic determination of how many points a team should win or lose by.if anybody out there knows of a good solid team power rating let me know
thanks again
free
no i dont have 3 years of results as i completely laid off for the last couple of years. but what i can tell you is at just about the beginning of football season i dropped a hundred dollars into my offshore and from there built that into a little short of 5,000 but the other half of that truth is now iam down to 2300. still up but not so up as i was. same thing before i laid off for the last couple fo years, took 300 dollars, hit a 4 team parlay and built it up to 8,000 from there and just like that in 5 or 6 maybe 7 bets towards the end of the colledge football season when texas beat usc for the bcs was the big straw for me. put me out and down to betting with the imaginary money the offshores give you as bonus points. yeah that sc game, i think they were minus 6 or 7 or something, that was the straw.
but yeah i developed a spread system, and i kind of like it. but i feel to get the best out of it i need the strongest number i can find as my system is strictly 'by the numbers' no other motivational factors involved.
went to dunkels website but the ratings he has are from week 5 of the colledge basketball season. so i used his numbers today and for instance in the drexel / fair game he has fairfield with a rating of 59.50 and in week 5, which he has'nt updated he has fairfields rating at 54.40. thats a 5 point switch. i shot him an email asking him about any updates and how can i registar to receive his weekly updates but that was a week ago and no reply. so i dont know
but i did go to 'my line' ace and thats not what iam looking for. i am looking for an strong power type rating made for each division 1 team thats been designed for making a basic determination of how many points a team should win or lose by.if anybody out there knows of a good solid team power rating let me know
thanks again
free
ok ace this is what iam talking about when i mentioned this system i use can be brillient or a miserable failure.
tomarrow monday i came up with syc to win by 51.10 points and det to lose by 20.70 points aveaged out to syc by 36
vegas has syc -19 1/2. i have syc to win by 20.70 to 51.
if the bottom line holds up then syc should win bt 21. if the top line holds up the syc should win by 51. if the avg holds up syc should win by 36
couple of weeks ago duke -20 played deleware. my avg for that game was duke -38 and thats what they won by. same thing when duke played temple, i think duke was -12 but my avg number had duke -30 and i think they won by 26-27. but other times ive come up with teams to win by better then 18, 19, 20 points and giving away 8,9,10 points. books had it right and the numbers just couldnt beat the vegas number. i mean those guys aint stupid. i realize that sometimes you can just throw your numbers out the window, that numbers dont make the players, but they do leave a trail. so anyway there it is. syc by 18 points better then the spread.
free
tomarrow monday i came up with syc to win by 51.10 points and det to lose by 20.70 points aveaged out to syc by 36
vegas has syc -19 1/2. i have syc to win by 20.70 to 51.
if the bottom line holds up then syc should win bt 21. if the top line holds up the syc should win by 51. if the avg holds up syc should win by 36
couple of weeks ago duke -20 played deleware. my avg for that game was duke -38 and thats what they won by. same thing when duke played temple, i think duke was -12 but my avg number had duke -30 and i think they won by 26-27. but other times ive come up with teams to win by better then 18, 19, 20 points and giving away 8,9,10 points. books had it right and the numbers just couldnt beat the vegas number. i mean those guys aint stupid. i realize that sometimes you can just throw your numbers out the window, that numbers dont make the players, but they do leave a trail. so anyway there it is. syc by 18 points better then the spread.
free
