Many times on here some Joker trumps up He's going to fade someone. I've always looked at fading much the same way as following a poster, there's many things that can go wrong, prices missed, plays missed but at least one could argue they follow as their own selecting may be useless. However in fading the fader is trying to say they are smart whereas I would say there's nothing smart about someone else dictating where your hard earned goes without some reasoning.
So leaving aside the Dope posters who talk about fading lets look at it a bit deeper. The reasonable approach would be to select a winning poster who its assumed cannot keep up their current run, taking on a poster who has gone 10-1 may look inviting but pressing up the other side of his next 10 winners can result in a hard luck story down the Pub for the next 10 Years. After kicking around several Forums 80 plays seems a safe base to work from and of those sighted 55% would be the maximum percentage in most, if a 56 or 57% hit then you were just unlucky. The obvious ploy would be to look for posters who are hitting say +60% and use then as your fade on the basis it cannot carry on and will return to a max of 55% in time.
While on paper that appears to look a road paved in gold, the fader still needs to know what sort of bettor the fadee is and what units he plays. His 60% could have been got by heavy chalk while an increase in Dog betting will distort the profit/loss. Take our very own Choptalk who is a model of consistancy in that he keeps his plays and units relatively unison and posts reasonable prices at an early stage. ( For which he should be applauded as not many do) I looked back at Chops last winning season and his average price was +103 so you couldnt ask for more to fade.
Chop once again has been burning up the boards in Bases going 47-30 for 61% and once again, on paper looks the ideal fade over the next month or two. However, Chop went 54% ON 491 plays that year which would have resulted in a nut squeezing exercise for the fader. Even now on Chops next 400 plays, if he hits 47% and has a slightly losing season the Fader will be out of pocket on the vig and considering the time put in, must be classed as a failure.
Bottom line here is fading is no more than uncontrolled gambling where even at its best needs the usual best prices and unchanging selections. Anything short of that is even more sillier than guessing yourself.
WHERE'S MY PINT
So leaving aside the Dope posters who talk about fading lets look at it a bit deeper. The reasonable approach would be to select a winning poster who its assumed cannot keep up their current run, taking on a poster who has gone 10-1 may look inviting but pressing up the other side of his next 10 winners can result in a hard luck story down the Pub for the next 10 Years. After kicking around several Forums 80 plays seems a safe base to work from and of those sighted 55% would be the maximum percentage in most, if a 56 or 57% hit then you were just unlucky. The obvious ploy would be to look for posters who are hitting say +60% and use then as your fade on the basis it cannot carry on and will return to a max of 55% in time.
While on paper that appears to look a road paved in gold, the fader still needs to know what sort of bettor the fadee is and what units he plays. His 60% could have been got by heavy chalk while an increase in Dog betting will distort the profit/loss. Take our very own Choptalk who is a model of consistancy in that he keeps his plays and units relatively unison and posts reasonable prices at an early stage. ( For which he should be applauded as not many do) I looked back at Chops last winning season and his average price was +103 so you couldnt ask for more to fade.
Chop once again has been burning up the boards in Bases going 47-30 for 61% and once again, on paper looks the ideal fade over the next month or two. However, Chop went 54% ON 491 plays that year which would have resulted in a nut squeezing exercise for the fader. Even now on Chops next 400 plays, if he hits 47% and has a slightly losing season the Fader will be out of pocket on the vig and considering the time put in, must be classed as a failure.
Bottom line here is fading is no more than uncontrolled gambling where even at its best needs the usual best prices and unchanging selections. Anything short of that is even more sillier than guessing yourself.
WHERE'S MY PINT
and remember, a Fader is an out of control waster. :thumbsup:
arty: 
