Arizona/Wisky 9-18 Analysis By A Local

[hdaddy]

Was right on last week with my pick of Utah +13 over AZ for my biggest play of the year so far. I seemed to get good response so I'll give you my "two cents" again this week.

First let me say I am not near as confident about a side on this one as I was last week. With that said I am only playing 1 unit on this game. First and foremost this is going to be a defensive game (but you already knew that). Arizona performed well and seem to be getting their house in order, they still have a long way to go with their D secondary. The two freshmen starters are fast but not experienced. Because Wisconsin isn't a big pass oriented team I don't expect them to be able to exploit this the way other teams could.

Overall I do like the way the Wildcats match up against Wisky here. Wiskys rush defense has allowed 2.02 yds/carry while AZ has allowed 3.84. This may look a little lopsided but consider the teams that each has faced. Also if you factor in passing AZ has completed a whopping 77% of its passes for an average of 184.5 yds/game while Wisky has only completed 52% for 150.5 yds/game. If AZ can stop the run they should be able to hold their own.

Offensively I look for them to take the same approach they did against Utah, in that they will pound the ball with Bell in order to gain access to hit quick out-type passes for 8 - 12 yards. If Heavner is able to connect as well as he did last week then U of A should be able to move the ball.

Other possible things to consider:
As far as inside info Kris Heavner has missed a couple of practices due to a stomach virus, or possible food poisoning, so he may be a little less sharp on Saturday. Also their is a slight chance (35%)of rain as their is some moisture heading up from Mexico.

What does this all mean? I am looking for a low scoring game with Arizona covering the +11. Take the under and AZ. IThe safest play may be a 6pt teaser on AZ +17 and Under 47.


Predicted Score: AZ 13 Wisconsin 20

 

HDaddy,

You have touched on my favorite game on Saturday by far. I love Arizona in this spot. Wisky is awful on offense without ADavis to pull the sled. Stocco will be making his first start on the road and he hasn't done much at home. Believe me, I know because he is on my fantasy team. Don't expect Barry to put the ball in the air very often which will lead to a close ballgame and anything over 10 points is way to many. I look for a possible outright win by Arizona. Best pick on the board.

 

How do you figure that. All information I have points to him starting. I doubt that the flu will keep him out of this game. WP, do you know something that everyone else doesn't? Or are you just trying to drive the line up further so you can hammer Arizona?

 

[RightAngle]

Here is my write-up in case you missed the thread:

Wisconsin at Arizona (UNDER 41) - 1:00pm Pacific
Oddsmakers really could not make this total low enough. Arizona games so far this year have averaged 26.5 total points and Wisconsin games have averaged 30.5. That is a 28.5 total points per game average over a four game stretch between the two teams.

Arizona has scored 27 points in two games, 14 of those coming in the 4th quarter of their win over I-AA foe Northern Arizona. They are averaging 1.7 points in all other quarters so far. In their defense, they committed four turnovers and were stopped on a 4th and 1 at the goal line in last game vs Utah, but the Utes are a bit banged up on defense and are not exactly a defensive juggernaut to begin with. The Cats still ended with just 6 points, including 0 in the second half. Arizona has averaged just 12.76 points per game in their last 13 outings dating back to last season. They are learning a new offensive system and it will be a while before any significant improvement is made. Defensively, the Cats already look much improved. This is to be expected by a Stoops coached defense. They held a very good Utah offense to a very respectable 326 total yards and 23 points, only 6 coming in the second half. This is despite 4 turnovers putting Utah in good field position on multiple occasions. The Utes scored a TD on an 11 yard drive and a short FG on a 19 yard drive. The Wildcat defense played much better in the second half and should continue major improvement week to week under Stoops.

The Wisconsin offense has experience, except at the two most important positions, QB & RB. Sophomore John Stocco is the new starting QB. He has been decent completing 22-of-42 with one interception but this will be his first road test and perhaps the best defense he has faced. He completed 14 passes vs UNLV but only for an average of 9.35 yards a catch. The other big area for concern is running back. Standout starter Anthony Davis remains out with an eye injury, clear #2 RB Dwayne Smith had his career ended by a heart ailment. Projected #3 transfer Brian Calhoun is out as well. That leaves the Badgers with fourth stringer Booker Stanley and a true freshman Jamil Walker who did not even dress in the first game but now is listed as the #1 RB. This is arguably the most important position in the Wisconsin offense and the loss of talent and experience will limit their scoring ability. Wisconsin had one offensive touchdown vs UNLV as their remaining 11 points came from two safeties and a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. Defensively, insiders are calling this the best defensive line ever at Wisconsin. The secondary is also outstanding with three key starters back. The only question is at linebacker where two key starters depart but so far the replacements have been suffice. Eight starters are back in all plus the addition of DE Erasmus James who missed last season with injury and CB Brett Bell who was injured in third game last year. Wisconsin has not allowed an offensive touchdown in their first two games and I see no reason for them not to continue to dominate this week. The Badgers are also helped by new place-kicker who boots kickoffs to the end zone limiting KO returns which were a problem last year.

Rarely will you see a 1:00pm local start time in Arizona this time of year. Gametime temperatures will be in the upper 90's and could be over 100 on the field. Both teams prefer running the ball. Wisconsin has run 67% of the time and Arizona 61% of the time in two games. With the severe heat, I expect lots of slow movement and standing around in-between plays with the clock moving. Both head coaches are former defensive coordinators and UW's Barry Alvarez is a good friend of the Stoops so I expect conservative play calling and no running up of the score if Wisconsin has the chance. Both teams will emphasize keeping their defenses off the field. The Badgers are known to be very "vanilla" early in the season and they do not exactly thrive in the role of a double digit away favorite (0-6 ATS since 1999). This has all the makings of a low scoring affair.

Under 41 1 UNIT

*As of this writing there are still some 41.5's out there, including Pinnacle.


Edward
Right Angle Sports

 

[quantumleap]

Is Bell still injured? Didn't they take him out for part of the game last week? It seems to me I saw him limping after he came back in.

Thanks in advance.

 

[RightAngle]

He has been close to full speed in practices and will start.

 

[hdaddy]

quauntumleap,

Bell was injured but has been practicing the whole week. Gilbert Harris also performed very well in his absence only averaging 0.3 less yds/carry than Bell.

Other notes: it looks like it may rain late Sat or early Sun. so rain should not be a factor at 1:00pm local.

 

[hdaddy]

Hope you guys were on board with this. Picked up AZ +11 as well as the under. Makes 3-0 on Arizona plays so far this year.

Thought Az was going to pull the upset. The rain did come in a bit early today and play a factor in PAT and field goal. Thought there might have been a bit more scoring, but basically my analysis was fairly correct.

 

[RightAngle]

The UNDER play was a thing of beauty.