arizona fg miss last night....

[HuskerFan1]

does anyone know what the live betting for the moneyline winner was in the pats/az game last night just before the cards attempted the 47 yarder. i am very curious. thanks

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

I just know that the miss FG was a huge win for me as I took under 44.5 for a couple of dimes last night at 10:54 last night when they were on 27 points.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'm not too familiar with Catazaro off my head. I know he isn't really known as a long distance guy, but I'd guess NE was around 60-65% to win when factoring in the re-draw (would get the ball back with about 35 seconds left and Gost obviously has a leg) And really, Belichick made a pretty egregious error letting like 15-20 seconds come off the clock after the Fitzgerald catch. Weird how coaches mess that up no matter how smart or accomplished they are.

Catazaro to make the kick was probably around 40-45%.

 

[NorthernStar]

played NE +110 live betting. Quickly changed to -115 because I was going to place more on it.

Northern Star

 

[Willie99]

The AZ kicker is not very good distance kicker, and that's being kind

He's awesome inside of 40

So it's hard to say

 

[Seymour]

I'm not too familiar with Catazaro off my head. I know he isn't really known as a long distance guy, but I'd guess NE was around 60-65% to win when factoring in the re-draw (would get the ball back with about 35 seconds left and Gost obviously has a leg) And really, Belichick made a pretty egregious error letting like 15-20 seconds come off the clock after the Fitzgerald catch. Weird how coaches mess that up no matter how smart or accomplished they are.

Catazaro to make the kick was probably around 40-45%.

Just cuz u know the other team's plays doesn't make u so smart

 

[sharky99]

stats said he was 27 for 27 inside the 45 last year and 27 of 28 inside the 50 last year 2015 .... dude close by goes says after the catch "cool he's automatic Ariz gets the win" lol talk about funny comment before the kick is even tried.

 

[devocr]

Was a bad snap.

 

[Willie99]

I thought I saw her was 40 for 40 inside of 45

1 for 4 outside of 45, which would make him 1 for his last 5 from long distance

And it was a bad snap

 

[TomGshotput]

I'm not too familiar with Catazaro off my head. I know he isn't really known as a long distance guy, but I'd guess NE was around 60-65% to win when factoring in the re-draw (would get the ball back with about 35 seconds left and Gost obviously has a leg)

Receiving a kickoff with 30 seconds and no timeouts gives a team about 5% chance of kicking a winning field goal.

Catazaro to make the kick was probably around 40-45%.

NFL kickers make over 50% from over 50 and over 75% from 40-49. (Looks to be around 65-70% from 45-49). There must be kickers who aren't good enough to even make the NFL who can make it from that distance 40% of the time. If I'm wrong, the best kickers may be the most underpaid players in all of professional sports. They would be worth about 10-points per year just on 40+ yard field goals).

No way New England should have been the favorite

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah, 60-65% win-rate for NE was probably a bit high of an estimate on my part. I was thinking Catanzaro was worse from 45-49 based on what the announcers were saying and his last few previous kicks. I looked it up and he was 16-18 from 40-49 last 2 years. 47 is on the further end of that and he was facing a pressure game-winning kick but he probably was still atleast 55% to hit it.

I know the sample is small but I'd like to see the data on 45-49 yarders inside of 1 minute for nationally televised night games. I think that would be an interesting subset. I'd guess the results are worse than normal expectation.

Shit, based on games I've watched I feel like it is sub-50%.