Are you guys betting on the next election yet ?

[DannyMay]

I am seeing big scalps out there


Republican as low as -160
Democrat as high as +250

That is a great scalp, but tying the money up for almost a year as well as risking the possibility of a book folding makes it a little too risky.

If these scalps are still available this summer, this would be a good opportunity to make a little.

 

[lander]

Danny,
IMO that's waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long to tie up your money.

When they get within a few weeks I would consider it depending on the return.

Thanks for the heads up though.
GL

 

[PatPatriot]

Danny me boy would you like to discuss a over/under in states won by GW?

 

[Mr.Smith]

what book has the 160?

hammer that. bush will demolish dean. and rightfully so.

 

[D2bets]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Mr. Smith:
what book has the 160?

hammer that. bush will demolish dean. and rightfully so.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Dean is not the Democratic nominee (and I don't think he will be it either).

 

[GreenDoberman]

If you're going to tie up your money this long, make sure it is with a reputable book that has very little chance of going under.

 

[Mr.Smith]

dean is the frontrunner. the line is based on him. so hammer bush -160.

it does not matter who the nominee is. though right now it appears to be dean. no one else is even close. the line is based on dean. bush would destoy dean one on one. -160 is a joke line. hammer it.

 

[WildBill]

I think -160 is a fair price. Who knows what happens between now and then, the swing voters that could go either way often make up their minds in the last week or even days before the election. These polls right now that show Bush way ahead of Dean are worthless, the pollsters never seem to fill in the public on the reality with these things. Right now Dean isn't the candidate so even if you say to people the choice is Bush or Dean, some people that are in the camps of other Dems might be inclined to say Bush just because they don't like Dean. When it becomes clear those are the only choices and all these people that are bashing him now come out and endorse him then it is a different story. I think the electoral college factor will once again swing things and maybe this time it could go against Bush. I saw some projections and they pretty much showed that once again Florida probably decides the race. Without Nader in there, Dean might get Florida because a lot of people in that state were so put off by the partisanship they might just vote exactly as they did before with the balance of the Nader vote likely to go to Dean.

Watch Florida, it looks like it once again will make the difference.

 

[DannyMay]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by lander:
Danny,
IMO that's waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too long to tie up your money.

When they get within a few weeks I would consider it depending on the return.

Thanks for the heads up though.
GL<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Yeah. I agree. I would love to find a sweet scalp like that on a short term bet. It kind of scares me to see that alrge of a difference, because it makes me think the book with the -160 might be trying to get some money locked up until next football season. I wont do it with the current uncertain condition of the industry.

 

[DannyMay]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Patriot:
Danny me boy would you like to discuss a over/under in states won by GW?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


You said 45 a couple of weeks ago. Since then, Saddam has been captured and the economy is improving. If you want to stick with your original position ("that stupid Bush is going win 45 states next election" )then I will bet you.

 

[PatPatriot]

The implication to the original statement was regarding if GW's opponent was Howard "the duck" Dean...If this is the case (Bush vs,Dean) you sir, have a wager...Have any suggetions for a book?? Or someone that will hold the bet??....Your on.

 

[WildBill]

No way Bush wins 45 states. He will win more than Democrat because the Dems will as always get the biggest states. I would guess from current math Bush will win between 28-37 states. If he wins under 30 he probably loses the election is my call.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

I just bet Dean BIG for democratic candidate at 1.36. hope its a lock...looks like it, when are they going to announce who gets to face the stupid monkey as democratic candidate?

 

[D2bets]

A234, first they have to actually start voting. That begins in a few weeks. The nomination should be clear by March 10 or so.

...and I do not think Dean is a lock at all.

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

If you think so then Clark at 4.50 probably looks good. Long-shot is Hillary at 10/1.

 

[D2bets]

Yes, Clark at +350 is strong. I also give Gephardt a shot. Then the long-shot is nobody gets enough deflegates and possibly someone like Hillary steps in. That's a definitely longshot, but a remote possibility. Right now I'd call it:
Dean 50%
Clark 35%
Gephardt 15%
Other 5%

 

[Railbird]

I think Dean wins easy, Florida will have more poor people voting this time. Dean will also win Cal,NY easy.