Guys I am a die hard Jays fan and have been since I was a kid. I still clearly remember the WS Championships of the early 90's. They havent even made the playoffs since then. I am hoping and keeping the faith more than anything that this hot start by the Jays is not a fluke and would like others input on this. The starting rotation is pretty much the only achilles heel of the Jays this year and they have quality bats, great defense, and a rock solid bullpen. Also Rios and Wells are struggling just imagine if they start to come around offensively. Anyone else think they are for real this year or is it just an early season fluke? Can they truly compete? Would love to get others thoughts and opinion about this team and what they see from now until the end of September?
they are for real...
if you look and see all their pitching injuries its really amazing they are where they are right now and they are getting good experience for people who will help them in august and september and possibly beyond
Cecil will be a stud and once their injuries get settled and bj ryan comes back they will be a nightmare. they have alot of depth at pitching with experienced pitchers.
tough division though but bostons pitching is down. yankees will be in the mix unfortunately and the rays are scary as they are scrappy.
if you look and see all their pitching injuries its really amazing they are where they are right now and they are getting good experience for people who will help them in august and september and possibly beyond
Cecil will be a stud and once their injuries get settled and bj ryan comes back they will be a nightmare. they have alot of depth at pitching with experienced pitchers.
tough division though but bostons pitching is down. yankees will be in the mix unfortunately and the rays are scary as they are scrappy.
Coaching lost the game yesterday:
a) Unacceptable in a series deciding game against the Yankees to not have Lind, Overbay and Snider in the lineup. I don’t care about pitching matchups versus lefties or whatever.
b) 2-1 Jays. Barajas on 2nd base, 1 out. Macdonald singles, they send Barajas home and he is out by a mile. Shoulda never sent his fat ass home, everyone said it before the hit but the coach did anyways.
c) Tallet struggled with strikes all night. He comes out for the 7th (shoulda never with our the good bullpen we have). He faces the bottom 2 guys in the Yankees order so I said if the first guy gets on base, take his sorry ass out. He walks the first guy on 4 pitches and then they leave him in and the next guy (some 30 year Italian backup player) singles and they have 1st and 3rd. Can’t believe they left him in there.
d) Frasor was amazing, comes in and leaves only 2-2, getting out of a huge jam and the crowd is going crazy.
e) Bottom of 7th. Rolen leads off with a double. Millar sacrifices him over to 3rd base with 1 out. So all they need is a sac fly. THE ONE PLAYER WHO SHOULD NOT HAVE HAD THE CHANCE WAS OUR WORST BATTER JOHN MACDONALD! You have Lind, Snider and Overbay on the bench and Cito goes with Macdonald who strikes out on 4 pitches. Inning over after that. Fine it’s still 2-2.
f) Top of the 8th. You have to expect extra innings now. Frasor should have 100% come back out for another inning because he was hot and he was pumped with his 3 strikeouts in the seventh to get out of the jam. Instead a cold pitcher comes in…Carlson…and allows a HR to the first batter he faces that won the game.
That’s Mickey Mouse coaching at best that has gone unnoticed all season because we are winning games. Pisses me off…Cito is good because he has experience and he is wise and shit but cmon…wtf. SERIES DECIDING GAME AGAINST YANKEES AT HOME AND NO OVERBAY, SNIDER OR LIND???
a) Unacceptable in a series deciding game against the Yankees to not have Lind, Overbay and Snider in the lineup. I don’t care about pitching matchups versus lefties or whatever.
b) 2-1 Jays. Barajas on 2nd base, 1 out. Macdonald singles, they send Barajas home and he is out by a mile. Shoulda never sent his fat ass home, everyone said it before the hit but the coach did anyways.
c) Tallet struggled with strikes all night. He comes out for the 7th (shoulda never with our the good bullpen we have). He faces the bottom 2 guys in the Yankees order so I said if the first guy gets on base, take his sorry ass out. He walks the first guy on 4 pitches and then they leave him in and the next guy (some 30 year Italian backup player) singles and they have 1st and 3rd. Can’t believe they left him in there.
d) Frasor was amazing, comes in and leaves only 2-2, getting out of a huge jam and the crowd is going crazy.
e) Bottom of 7th. Rolen leads off with a double. Millar sacrifices him over to 3rd base with 1 out. So all they need is a sac fly. THE ONE PLAYER WHO SHOULD NOT HAVE HAD THE CHANCE WAS OUR WORST BATTER JOHN MACDONALD! You have Lind, Snider and Overbay on the bench and Cito goes with Macdonald who strikes out on 4 pitches. Inning over after that. Fine it’s still 2-2.
f) Top of the 8th. You have to expect extra innings now. Frasor should have 100% come back out for another inning because he was hot and he was pumped with his 3 strikeouts in the seventh to get out of the jam. Instead a cold pitcher comes in…Carlson…and allows a HR to the first batter he faces that won the game.
That’s Mickey Mouse coaching at best that has gone unnoticed all season because we are winning games. Pisses me off…Cito is good because he has experience and he is wise and shit but cmon…wtf. SERIES DECIDING GAME AGAINST YANKEES AT HOME AND NO OVERBAY, SNIDER OR LIND???
We will find out tonight if Brett Cecil is the real deal. If he is, our rotation would look like this when everyone is healthy. Also keep in mind that the Jays have a lot of bats they can trade for an ace pitcher in the National League at the mid-point of the season:
1. Roy Halladay (Cy Young winner...just watch)
2. Jesse Litsch (Career 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, 13 wins last year)
3. Ricky Romero (3 career starts, 2-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
4. Scott Richmond (Has allowed more than 3 ER's in only 2 of 12 career starts)
5. Brett Cecil (2 career starts, looked like Cy Young in both)
Not too bad if they stay healthy with another ace in Shawn Marcum still recovering from surgery.
1. Roy Halladay (Cy Young winner...just watch)
2. Jesse Litsch (Career 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, 13 wins last year)
3. Ricky Romero (3 career starts, 2-0, 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
4. Scott Richmond (Has allowed more than 3 ER's in only 2 of 12 career starts)
5. Brett Cecil (2 career starts, looked like Cy Young in both)
Not too bad if they stay healthy with another ace in Shawn Marcum still recovering from surgery.
If your question is a gambling related question, I would expect to be a slight net seller going forward in the short term until the market adjusts itself. I expect the market to be quick on their re-evaluation on the Blue Jays when they start regressing, as the premium has not been terribly high during their upswing.
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In reality, what the we are dealing with in regards to the Blue Jays is a slightly above average to good team- a team built to win 81-85 games. The concerning part about their recent run is that it has been heavily dependent on their lineup- a lineup that in reality is below average, and not one of the top lineups in the league that current performance would suggest. Four to five of their starting hitters are performing at least one standard deviation above their true predictive performance, 3 of which are veteran players that are on the downward end of their careers and have very predictive performances metrics. Expect severe regression in their lineup, sooner, rather than later.
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The question is can their starting pitching and bullpen overcome the expected regression in their hitting. The answer is probably not. The injuries to Marcum and McGowan at the beginning of the year is very material, and probably the difference between being able to make the playoffs, and once again ending their season after 162 games. Their backend of their rotation is filled with a lot of “no-name” young, unproven pitchers. However, in reality, they have a lot of upside and their true worth is probably slightly higher than what the market expect them to be. The bad news is these arms are not built nor proven to pitch in a 162 game season, so second half regression should be expected and quantified into their lines. So from a gambling perspective the time to “buy” into their young arms is the next couple of months, which happens to coincide with “selling” their lineup.
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The bullpen, like it has been the last two years, is where their true worth lies. Getting Ryans out of the closing role should add value. More importantly, their bullpen is not top heavy, instead very deep, an asset that will be able to offset their young arms inability to eat up innings. Bullpens in general are typically not fully valued by the market, so hidden value lies with this facet of their game.
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The bottom line is not to expect current performance to last much longer. Their lineup can not sustain such a feat. Coupled with expected increase productivity from the Rays and Yankees, and there is enough downward pressure on the Blue Jays to proceed with caution and to expect to be a net seller in the short term.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>In reality, what the we are dealing with in regards to the Blue Jays is a slightly above average to good team- a team built to win 81-85 games. The concerning part about their recent run is that it has been heavily dependent on their lineup- a lineup that in reality is below average, and not one of the top lineups in the league that current performance would suggest. Four to five of their starting hitters are performing at least one standard deviation above their true predictive performance, 3 of which are veteran players that are on the downward end of their careers and have very predictive performances metrics. Expect severe regression in their lineup, sooner, rather than later.
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> </o>The question is can their starting pitching and bullpen overcome the expected regression in their hitting. The answer is probably not. The injuries to Marcum and McGowan at the beginning of the year is very material, and probably the difference between being able to make the playoffs, and once again ending their season after 162 games. Their backend of their rotation is filled with a lot of “no-name” young, unproven pitchers. However, in reality, they have a lot of upside and their true worth is probably slightly higher than what the market expect them to be. The bad news is these arms are not built nor proven to pitch in a 162 game season, so second half regression should be expected and quantified into their lines. So from a gambling perspective the time to “buy” into their young arms is the next couple of months, which happens to coincide with “selling” their lineup.
<o
> </o>The bullpen, like it has been the last two years, is where their true worth lies. Getting Ryans out of the closing role should add value. More importantly, their bullpen is not top heavy, instead very deep, an asset that will be able to offset their young arms inability to eat up innings. Bullpens in general are typically not fully valued by the market, so hidden value lies with this facet of their game.
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> </o>The bottom line is not to expect current performance to last much longer. Their lineup can not sustain such a feat. Coupled with expected increase productivity from the Rays and Yankees, and there is enough downward pressure on the Blue Jays to proceed with caution and to expect to be a net seller in the short term.
If your question is a gambling related question, I would expect to be a slight net seller going forward in the short term until the market adjusts itself. I expect the market to be quick on their re-evaluation on the Blue Jays when they start regressing, as the premium has not been terribly high during their upswing.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
In reality, what the we are dealing with in regards to the Blue Jays is a slightly above average to good team- a team built to win 81-85 games. The concerning part about their recent run is that it has been heavily dependent on their lineup- a lineup that in reality is below average, and not one of the top lineups in the league that current performance would suggest. Four to five of their starting hitters are performing at least one standard deviation above their true predictive performance, 3 of which are veteran players that are on the downward end of their careers and have very predictive performances metrics. Expect severe regression in their lineup, sooner, rather than later.
<o
The question is can their starting pitching and bullpen overcome the expected regression in their hitting. The answer is probably not. The injuries to Marcum and McGowan at the beginning of the year is very material, and probably the difference between being able to make the playoffs, and once again ending their season after 162 games. Their backend of their rotation is filled with a lot of “no-name” young, unproven pitchers. However, in reality, they have a lot of upside and their true worth is probably slightly higher than what the market expect them to be. The bad news is these arms are not built nor proven to pitch in a 162 game season, so second half regression should be expected and quantified into their lines. So from a gambling perspective the time to “buy” into their young arms is the next couple of months, which happens to coincide with “selling” their lineup.
<o
The bullpen, like it has been the last two years, is where their true worth lies. Getting Ryans out of the closing role should add value. More importantly, their bullpen is not top heavy, instead very deep, an asset that will be able to offset their young arms inability to eat up innings. Bullpens in general are typically not fully valued by the market, so hidden value lies with this facet of their game.
<o
The bottom line is not to expect current performance to last much longer. Their lineup can not sustain such a feat. Coupled with expected increase productivity from the Rays and Yankees, and there is enough downward pressure on the Blue Jays to proceed with caution and to expect to be a net seller in the short term.
Wow quality input thanks for sharing. I do agree and expect some regression this is why I started the thread to see what others thought also and if they can keep it up. Their bullpen is the major strength of this team no doubt. One more thing to add to your comments is that I think the Rays were a fluke last year and wont be in the hunt this time around. So its all about getting ahead of the Red Sox and Yanks so at worst get the wild card. Will be interesting to see if the offense can continue to hit at a higher than potential clip as you stated and how much the young starting rotation can last over the lengthy season. Would love to get Marcum and/or McGowan back at least we should be big time contenders next season if the wheels fall off late this year.
You would think that the Blue Jays Pitching would cave in soon, but these young guys they brought up are pitching well. As long as they have their ace Halliday pitching the way he is capable of , the Blue Jays may stay in first place . They get pitcher Ryan back now. It,s the hitting thats been outstanding considering when you look at their lineup on paper , it doesn,t look to be over powering. There are no super all stars hitters.
Now with testing against steroids . MLB is gonna be alot tougher on ballplayers who test positive for using Juice. Look at Dave Ortiz batting 2.00, no homeruns with 15 rbi,s in 36 games so far. I would say no, they cant win the division but this year will be tough to predict due to more than half of major leauge ball players will have no juice
Since the Jays hired Cito Gaston back midseason last year , they,ve had one of the top 3 winning records in all of baseball. Gaston been there before and they will put out for him.
Now with testing against steroids . MLB is gonna be alot tougher on ballplayers who test positive for using Juice. Look at Dave Ortiz batting 2.00, no homeruns with 15 rbi,s in 36 games so far. I would say no, they cant win the division but this year will be tough to predict due to more than half of major leauge ball players will have no juice
Since the Jays hired Cito Gaston back midseason last year , they,ve had one of the top 3 winning records in all of baseball. Gaston been there before and they will put out for him.
McGowan will be the next Chacin...gone and forgotten by the time we know it. He has outstanding stuff but he is injury prone and his head is never there. He has serious brain issues when he pitches and he gets too wild.
Nonetheless I cannot believe how the young guys are coming through. Ray was not supposed to be MLB ready for another 2-3 years if ever. Romero is a late bloomer and even though he is coming off the DL, he showed some outstanding stuff in his MLB debut. Cecil is the real deal and can you imagine if Burnett had stuck around another few years?
I think in the end Jesse Litsch is the odd man out and Scott Richmond could be the one being sent down to the minors. If JP Ricciardi can acquire another top pitcher at the deadline we are going to be set for a run at the playoffs. Pretty damn excited about it.
Nonetheless I cannot believe how the young guys are coming through. Ray was not supposed to be MLB ready for another 2-3 years if ever. Romero is a late bloomer and even though he is coming off the DL, he showed some outstanding stuff in his MLB debut. Cecil is the real deal and can you imagine if Burnett had stuck around another few years?
I think in the end Jesse Litsch is the odd man out and Scott Richmond could be the one being sent down to the minors. If JP Ricciardi can acquire another top pitcher at the deadline we are going to be set for a run at the playoffs. Pretty damn excited about it.
