Are a lot of us overthinking a lot of matchups? I feel like Billbeater is the only one cashing in on huge money easy picks

[NYG4lifeNYK]

He has been smashing all year taking the Patriots, Saints, Bama and whoever else


My dumb ass picked the Browns yesterday for a few hundred haha

I'm up around 6+ grand so I can't complain but I feel like bill is one of the few that has been killing it every week (also based on his picks) but the larger wagers are on teams you know should wipe the floor with the other team.

Once again hats off to you bill. BOL to everyone, just wanted to share my thoughts.

 

[KingEleven]

worst NFL season ever thus far...personally speaking

 

[Serbone]

Too often the notion is that it is a "square bet" to take certain teams...

Nope.

Lots had SF yesterday despite a TERRIBLE offense and TERRIBLE defense plus injuries to key players (Hyde, Bowman, others) against a TOP offense with a HOF QB vs SF's QB, a big stiff. And NO has an improving defense. If NO players kept their foot on the pedal it would have been 75-20.

And so many others went with hapless Cleveland against the top NFC team, Dallas.

Sure, there are times to take the big ugly dogs, of course.

Be careful trying to think about betting based on your concept of "the squares" and "line movement" and all of that.

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

I feel like like the lines makers for some games are setting some odd lines to mess with peoples heads since they rarely throw out double digit lines for some teams even when they call for it.

 

[Serbone]

I feel like like the lines makers for some games are setting some odd lines to mess with peoples heads since they rarely throw out double digit lines for some teams even when they call for it.

Might be time to take a full week off... do not watch any of the games. Then look at results next Monday and everything will be clear again.

 

[jasonc69]

I'm having a decent year also but could be better if I stayed away from some of these shit teams! I think some of us have been betting for so long that we've seen these shit teams get the covers at times when no one thought they could. Like it or not, the Patriots and Dallas are very solid and good football teams and the chances of them "laying an egg" are slim right now. Gotta take the approach would you rather lose knowing you had the better team or bet on a team u know sucks and hope they find a way to get the cover.

 

[tmader7]

Come On Man!!!! Willie99 pointed out that if you were just playing BAMA and the PATS, you're up big. I've done both and played a few others, Temple is one for starters. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out who's covering and who isn't.

~T~

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

Come On Man!!!! Willie99 pointed out that if you were just playing BAMA and the PATS, you're up big. I've done both and played a few others, Temple is one for starters. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out who's covering and who isn't.

~T~

Who do you know that only plays 2 plays? lol certainly not me. I'm a degenerate and action junkie to the fullest. I wasn't the only one who was dumb enough to pick the Browns yesterday....at least I didn't pick SF.... but I also didn't bet N.O. either :hammerit

 

[jasonc69]

I took the Browns also, mostly because a lot of good cappers were on them. Sometimes I follow, sometimes I make my own decisions. It's always easy to say that was stupid after the fact. Lol. I'm up for the week, therefore I'm taking Seattle at home and taking my chances. Good luck

 

[Slurve~Ball]

CLE got fucked by refs in 1Q when they ejected CLE centre. 1st rd pick, centre, buh bye, c ya.
Lots of big public bets are hitting. Is NFL trying to make up for drop in ratings? Go extra patriotic and help public teams win? They say, when DAL does well, whole league does well.

 

[Enfuego]

I took the Browns also, mostly because a lot of good cappers were on them. Sometimes I follow, sometimes I make my own decisions. It's always easy to say that was stupid after the fact. Lol. I'm up for the week, therefore I'm taking Seattle at home and taking my chances. Good luck

There was no reason to take the Browns yesterday considering how good Dallas is right now and how bad the Browns are. I've fallen into the "others are on them" too and it's killed me before. A lot of guys on the Bills tonight but I wouldn't put a dime on the Bills playing this D at home on Monday night.

 

[jasonc69]

There was no reason to take the Browns yesterday considering how good Dallas is right now and how bad the Browns are. I've fallen into the "others are on them" too and it's killed me before. A lot of guys on the Bills tonight but I wouldn't put a dime on the Bills playing this D at home on Monday night.

As soon as I watched Dallas's first drive I was like why in the hell did I bet against them. They're not the Cowboys of old. And I agree with you on tonight, no way I can take the Bills against this defense in their backyard. Not saying it's the right side but I'll take my chances. Good luck!

 

[Enfuego]

As soon as I watched Dallas's first drive I was like why in the hell did I bet against them. They're not the Cowboys of old. And I agree with you on tonight, no way I can take the Bills against this defense in their backyard. Not saying it's the right side but I'll take my chances. Good luck!

Dude, I've done the same so many times. Listen to a bunch of guys on here and just shit the bed because the pick was trendy. I'd rather go tonight with the better D, better offensive line (statistically speaking), better QB, better coach at home.

 

[tmader7]

Who do you know that only plays 2 plays? lol certainly not me. I'm a degenerate and action junkie to the fullest. I wasn't the only one who was dumb enough to pick the Browns yesterday....at least I didn't pick SF.... but I also didn't bet N.O. either :hammerit

LOL, I hear ya man, but I'm a lot older and wiser, comes with years of doing this. When I tell my pilot let's go and he tells me no can do, storm in the path, I don't tell him phuck that, lol. GL with your action my man!

~T~

 

[billbeater]

Thanks Brother!!!
I don't feel that I just stick to favorites or dogs.
I never worry about one of my bets being square or sharp, that's meaningless.
Be confident in what you do know, and realize strongly what you don't know about games/teams.
GL & Thanks Again!
We need a beeefy holiday season ahead!
:toast:

 

[Skeeter123]

Dude, I've done the same so many times. Listen to a bunch of guys on here and just shit the bed because the pick was trendy. I'd rather go tonight with the better D, better offensive line (statistically speaking), better QB, better coach at home.

I think it depends on who you talk to. Every person I know is on Seattle. Local book has ALL Seattle money as well...

Best thing to do is look at both teams, cap the game the way you see it and make a decision. Ultimately, it doesn't matter who everyone is on.

GL either way.

:toast:

 

[bradyisgod]

Agreeing with Bill Beater and Skeeter. Pick who you think will cover the spread and let people lean you (that you know are good) on close decisions you aren't sure of. If you tag someone you'll spend a lot of time regretting that you should have followed your gut. All that matters is that you cover the spread. I know I should be picking mostly dogs given you have two chances to win (cover spread or win outright) as opposed to doing both, but people get caught up too much into that. If you picked only dogs you're losing money in the long run. I've been mostly on favorites for the past 3 years posting on RX despite me wanting to look for opportunities to pick dogs and I've done very well.

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

I think it depends on who you talk to. Every person I know is on Seattle. Local book has ALL Seattle money as well...

Best thing to do is look at both teams, cap the game the way you see it and make a decision. Ultimately, it doesn't matter who everyone is on.

GL either way.

:toast:

See the tricky part is that sometimes it does. Like with Minnesota vs Chicago and so many other games this year. Goes back and forth.

 

[Willie99]

Come On Man!!!! Willie99 pointed out that if you were just playing BAMA and the PATS, you're up big. I've done both and played a few others, Temple is one for starters. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out who's covering and who isn't.

~T~

I forgot about the Cowboys, they're just as good ATS as the Pats, the difference being I personally have not been riding the Cowboys

Could have won a 3 team parlay almost every week, LOL

 

[Willie99]

ATS

Patriots 7-1, including 4 straight
Cowboys 7-1, including 7 straight
Bama 7-2, including 4 straight


PS: and most outcomes are not really in doubt at the end, with a few exceptions of course (I had Philly last Sunday night face)(*^%)