Arbitrage or Middling baseball - Can you grind out a Profit?

[wilheim]

When bookmakers hang their numbers, they are merely reflecting their opinion of how an event is likely to unfold and where the majority of their customers are likely to want to place their money. The only certainty they have is that they will structure their prices to ensure that the percentages are in their favor. While there are times when various bookmakers' odds are the same on a particular game, there are many occasions when their opinions and, therefore, the odds they offer are very different.

With Baseball starting very soon what are the do's and dont's of middling baseball?

wil.

 

[D2bets]

Of course you can grind out a profit abitraging baseball -- how could you not? But as you say, it's a grind. It's work. You can middle/side totals as well but you need to really know what each number is worth and shop diligently.

 

[wilheim]

D2bets - how many outs would you recommend?


wil.

 

[D2bets]

As many as you can afford and monitor. The more the better, esp those with opinionated lines. If you're willing to put in the word, monitor a whole lot of shops you'd consider playing with for the first couple weeks and then take the plunge with those that seem to offer the best opportunities. Hard to say how "arbitragable" the market will be this year -- the more people that do it, the harder it will be.

All I can say is...obviously...Pinnacle has to be one of them.

 

[Fishhead]

Flag poles are a great resource for betting and scalping bases.

 

[avssports]

what's a flag pole?..

 

[BillDozer]

Yo can not do this and make a profit. BAd idea to even try. Chalk and the over is where its at!

 

[SportsBettingTrivia.com]

Over the years I have seen many gentlemen make money middling baseball..Its an art and takes many hours, but its done..

I know many players who wish baseball could be wagered on 52 weeks of the year..

Bet 2 underdogs in football..split you lose vig..Bet 2 dogs in baseball and split..

 

[WildBill]

Many of the people that I have heard of doing it have a good network of locals that they can bet into. I think all the books follow Don Best so religiously that there are only rare opportunities to do a clean midlle, one where you bet both sides at almost the same time. I know some guys that bet numbers and then go the other way hours later after the moves are in saying "I smelled that move coming", but I just never buy that as being a legitimate way to be consistently profitable. Obviously having a ton of books, especially the non-Don Best variety is key. Of course that involves some risk as well.

 

[TEASERGURU]

you would need some really good square outs who don't use don best. Someone who still uses JK.

 

[wilheim]

You really need up to 20 or 25 outs to compete for numbers. Including most of the Don Best screen and as many square shops that you can trust. The major risk is winning big at the wrong out. Getting paid as we all no is not as auto-matic as it should be, anyone looking to scalp baseball should be well aware of that.

wil.

 

[RPM]

wil,

you should try starting this same topic in the handicapping zone. lots of great info from some sharp guys in there!~

 

[Horseshoe]

Wil, don't forget an army of people in the LV streets, plus carrying a balance or credit-line with all the best stateside stores!

 

[wilheim]

Horseshoe - true, and that takes plenty of working capitol, plus more trust with your money in other people's hands. I have heard some beauties from "robbed" runners over the years. The whole process is a lot of work, and requires a lot of money, and credit to make it work.

wil.

 

[Horseshoe]

Agreed Wil, it takes balls by middlers & crews to have runners making a mere C-note plus per day, yet have boxes of cash & sports chips worth 100 to 200K at their fingertips..then again some of these bosses are people that you would be crazy to ever cross.

But we have heard the tales of runners with really good running shoes before.

You just never know when your gonna get the call to come in & empty your pockets for a count, when working for the big movers and middlers!

 

[wilheim]

I recall one runner who left a bag with 85K in it - in the Men's room of the Mirage sportsbook. That was his story anyway, and he stuck to it.


wil.

 

[Horseshoe]

I remember that story Wil, JV & Wynn's cameras seemed to not be of any help?

That happened somewhere between '91 & '94?

Wil, you worked at The Mirage?