Well one win, one draw and two losses so far. Been looking at USA game tonight and odds are too good to pass up.
Play USA (+140)(1-unit)
Caps out as a 2-1 game but crowd will be hostile so environment won't be favorable for the U.S.
61% chance of a USA win, only 14% draw chance
Play USA (+140)(1-unit)
Caps out as a 2-1 game but crowd will be hostile so environment won't be favorable for the U.S.
61% chance of a USA win, only 14% draw chance
Good Luck Yankee ! Cash it and move on to wed !
1-Play For Wed
Independiente Santa Fe at Atletico Nacional - Colombia Primera A Apertura
Play Nacional ML (-118) (.75 Units)
*8 scored / 1 conceded at home for Nacional
**2 scored / 4 conceded away for Santa Fe
***No losses in league play for Nacional / 4 games since an away win for Santa Fe
****Home field in Primera "A" is a big advantage at 1.66 goals scored avg for home team
*****Draw concern is higher than normal at 31% league average
******Capped at 2-0
Independiente Santa Fe at Atletico Nacional - Colombia Primera A Apertura
Play Nacional ML (-118) (.75 Units)
*8 scored / 1 conceded at home for Nacional
**2 scored / 4 conceded away for Santa Fe
***No losses in league play for Nacional / 4 games since an away win for Santa Fe
****Home field in Primera "A" is a big advantage at 1.66 goals scored avg for home team
*****Draw concern is higher than normal at 31% league average
******Capped at 2-0
Winner today after a crap Tuesday. No good Thursday Plays. Friday Play coming
Friday Plays:
Bray Wanderers at Derry City - Republic of Ireland Premier Division - Regular Season
Play: Derry ML (-107)(1-Unit)
Play: Over 2.5 (-103)(.5 Unit)
Play: Derry -1/2 (-112)(1-Unit)
*Numbers come out at 60% win / 23% Draw / 17% Bray
**Over is 70%
***Both derry home games have gone over and all 3 bray away games have gone over
****League average goals is 3.03 and league average over 2.5 is 65% which is above average
***** # 1 home offense vs # 11 away defense
******Bray has the #3 away offense but derry has the #2 home defense and # 1 overall defense in the league
Capped at a 3-1 game
Bray Wanderers at Derry City - Republic of Ireland Premier Division - Regular Season
Play: Derry ML (-107)(1-Unit)
Play: Over 2.5 (-103)(.5 Unit)
Play: Derry -1/2 (-112)(1-Unit)
*Numbers come out at 60% win / 23% Draw / 17% Bray
**Over is 70%
***Both derry home games have gone over and all 3 bray away games have gone over
****League average goals is 3.03 and league average over 2.5 is 65% which is above average
***** # 1 home offense vs # 11 away defense
******Bray has the #3 away offense but derry has the #2 home defense and # 1 overall defense in the league
Capped at a 3-1 game
Final Friday Play
Vitoria Guimaraes at Nacional - Portugal Primeira Liga
Play Vitoria (+128)(1-Unit)
*Nacional defense is horrible and Vitoria offense is ranked # 4 in away games
**Nacional offense isn't much better than their defense and Vitoria defense plays better in away games
***59% chance of win (I think it should be higher but league goals average is lower than normal so it plays with the %)
****Draw chance falls between 23%-29% which is an average chance
Capped at 2-0 and as high as 4-0 depending on model
Vitoria Guimaraes at Nacional - Portugal Primeira Liga
Play Vitoria (+128)(1-Unit)
*Nacional defense is horrible and Vitoria offense is ranked # 4 in away games
**Nacional offense isn't much better than their defense and Vitoria defense plays better in away games
***59% chance of win (I think it should be higher but league goals average is lower than normal so it plays with the %)
****Draw chance falls between 23%-29% which is an average chance
Capped at 2-0 and as high as 4-0 depending on model
Thanks Indy. Only went 2-2 with the irish plays but I'll take a +128 anyday
Sunday
AC Milan at Pescara - Italy Serie A
Play: AC Milan (-1)(-109)(1-Unit)
*Pescara probably won't be in Serie A next yr, They are in last place and will be relegated.
**Pescara recent form is bad, they have been hammered 10 of last 11 games
***9 out of 14 games at home Pescara has conceded 2 or more goals
****66 goals conceded in the league for Pesacara with 33 in the last 11
*****No need to say much about AC Milan, they are playing great and they need a win here to keep pace with Inter and Lazio
******DO NOT PLAY OVER 3.5 this may be a blowout but 4 goals is a little much if Pescara can't score. That said I have this capped at 3-1
I am also playing ML at (-178) but not a unit play at these odds
AC Milan at Pescara - Italy Serie A
Play: AC Milan (-1)(-109)(1-Unit)
*Pescara probably won't be in Serie A next yr, They are in last place and will be relegated.
**Pescara recent form is bad, they have been hammered 10 of last 11 games
***9 out of 14 games at home Pescara has conceded 2 or more goals
****66 goals conceded in the league for Pesacara with 33 in the last 11
*****No need to say much about AC Milan, they are playing great and they need a win here to keep pace with Inter and Lazio
******DO NOT PLAY OVER 3.5 this may be a blowout but 4 goals is a little much if Pescara can't score. That said I have this capped at 3-1
I am also playing ML at (-178) but not a unit play at these odds
Sunday Early Play 5 AM
Central Coast at Brisbane Roar - Australia A-League
Play Under 3.5 (-118) (.5 units)
* Typically this league scores more than 3 goals at 61% of games but central coast isn't very good offensively away at 8th of 10 teams and they are going against the #2 home defense
**Brisbanes 6th ranked home offense will be going against centrals 7th ranked away defense so they are even
***Capped at 2-1
Central Coast at Brisbane Roar - Australia A-League
Play Under 3.5 (-118) (.5 units)
* Typically this league scores more than 3 goals at 61% of games but central coast isn't very good offensively away at 8th of 10 teams and they are going against the #2 home defense
**Brisbanes 6th ranked home offense will be going against centrals 7th ranked away defense so they are even
***Capped at 2-1
Wake up with a winner indy, hopefully !
Loss: Brisbane kicked coastals ass 5-1 guess I should have stayed with the 61% league average on overs, lets see what AC Milan can do
Sunday
Iraklis at Kerkyra - Greece Super League
Play Kerkyra ML (+146)(.5 Unit)
*Home field is a huge advantage in Greece Super League
**Draw possibility is higher at 35% that's why we are getting (+146) here but last 10 Iraklis away games ended in a Win / Loss
***Iraklis hasn't scored in last 4 away games
****Capped 2-0
Iraklis at Kerkyra - Greece Super League
Play Kerkyra ML (+146)(.5 Unit)
*Home field is a huge advantage in Greece Super League
**Draw possibility is higher at 35% that's why we are getting (+146) here but last 10 Iraklis away games ended in a Win / Loss
***Iraklis hasn't scored in last 4 away games
****Capped 2-0
Draw: Didn't count on an own goal 12 minutes in by AC
