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Anyone with Dr. Bob hoops?
- Thread starter trotter
- Start date
NBA
3 Star Selection
Detroit 95 NEW YORK 83
01-Dec-03 04:35 PM Pacific Time
The Pistons continue to play well on the road, especially in slower paced games, as they are now 5-1 ATS this season on the road when the Over/Under line is 185 points or less – upping their record to 39-13- 2 ATS in such games (including 33-9-2 ATS when they are not laying more than 3 points). New York has been a feisty home dog, going 15-6- 1 ATS in that role recently, but they’re just 5-5 ATS as a home dog after a victory and my home-road ratings favor Detroit by 6 points in this game. Detroit also qualifies in a 152-80 ATS general road momentum situation and I’ll continue to ride the Pistons on the road against medium or slow tempo teams, as long as the line is fair.
Downgrade Detroit to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 3 points.
2 Star Selection
UTAH (-1 or better) 95 New Jersey 87
01-Dec-03 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The Nets played last night in Sacramento and the trip to Salt Lake City is not an easy one this time of year. Also, playing in the thin air of Utah can be a problem for unrested teams, who tend to tire in the 4th quarter while sucking for air. The Jazz have taken advantage of that favorable scheduling situation for years and they are 60-27-1 ATS when hosting unrested teams, as long as they are not favored by more than 15 points (1-0 ATS this year). Utah has transitioned well into the post Stockton-Malone era and they are obviously an underrated team – going 9-6 straight up and 10-3-1 ATS this season. The Nets, meanwhile, are an overrated team with a 7-9 straight up record and a 6-10 ATS mark. My ratings actually favor the Jazz by 3 ½ points in this game with Utah pointguard Carlos Arroyo out of the lineup. Arroyo has played great this season, but the Jazz are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS without Arroyo this season, as Raul Lopez has filled in nicely when needed. The Nets have struggled on the road in general the last few years and they’re only 25-40 ATS in non-division road games in the Jason Kidd era, including 13-28 ATS in games when not getting at least 3 points. There have only been 2 occasions all season in which Utah lost straight up and to the pointspread in the same game and their opponents in those games were Sacramento and Dallas. New Jersey is clearly not in that league and I’ll take the Jazz in a favorable situation with good line value.
3 Star Selection
San Antonio (-9 points or less) 105 L.A. CLIPPERS 89
01-Dec-03 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Spurs have played 10 games with stars Tim Duncan and Tony Parker in the lineup together and they are playing at a rate that is 9 ½ points better than an average team in those games (adjusted for strength of opposition, of course). The Clippers, meanwhile, has played at a level 6 ½ points worse than an average team this season and my math model favors the Spurs by 11 points in this game. San Antonio will surely be focused for this game after losing to the Lakers and Warriors in their last two games. In fact the Spurs apply to a very good 125-61-6 ATS road bounce-back situation (at -9 points or less only) and that angle is an even better 68-22-3 ATS if going against teams on a losing streak. San Antonio, meanwhile, has a long history of not letting down against bad teams and they are now 58-26- 2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or more and 70-34 ATS as a road favorite of 2 points or more against a losing team when rested (including 17-5 ATS after a loss). This is a good combination of a general situation, team trends and line value and I’ll take the Spurs in a Best Bet at -9 points or less.
Downgrade San Antonio to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points
Pass on San Antonio if they are favored by more than 9 points.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
FLORIDA STATE (-19 points or less) 77 Northwestern 51
01-Dec-03 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Florida State is a team on the rise under coach Leonard Hamilton, whose assembled a team loaded with young talent (the nation’s best recruiting class according to most recruiting services) and a likely 1st Team All-ACC wingman in senior Tim Pickett. The ‘Noles are taking no prisoners in early season play so far this season, as now have the offensive talent to go along with the outstanding play on the defensive side of the floor that they established in Hamilton’s first year with the program. This year, the Seminoles have allowed just 32% shooting while forcing an average of 23 turnovers, and their athletic frontcourt players will dominate inside and force the poor shooting Wildcats to settle for perimeter jumpers. Young teams tend to play much better at home and Florida State should add to their recent 19-9- 1 ATS mark at home. The Seminoles qualify in a very strong 54-13-2 ATS ACC non-conference home favorite situation that is an incredible 36-3 ATS when applying before the ACC season begins. That angle is 2- 0 for me this year (I passed on the one game that didn’t win this year) and I’ll go with Florida State to produce another easy win in front of the home fans against an outmanned Northwestern team.
Downgrade Florida State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 17 points
Pass on Florida State if they are favored by more than 19 points.
2 Star Selection
NEW MEXICO (-9 points or less) 79 Portland 63
01-Dec-03 06:00 PM Pacific Time
New Mexico suffered through its worst season in years in Ritchie McKay’s first year at the helm, but 4 returning starters should be enough to counterbalance the loss of the nation’s leading scorer, Rueben Douglass, and I expect the Lobos to play better as a team this season. Portland returns 5 starters, but I don’t expect those players to be much better than they were in last year’s sorry 11-17 campaign. My pre-season ratings favor New Mexico by 11 points and the Lobos qualify in a very strong 134-60-6 ATS home momentum situation if they remain favored by 9 points or less. Portland has played a couple of points better than their initial rating, but the line would be fair even if they continued to play at that slightly higher level. I’ll lay 9 points or less with New Mexico in a 2-Star Best Bet.
3 Star Selection
Detroit 95 NEW YORK 83
01-Dec-03 04:35 PM Pacific Time
The Pistons continue to play well on the road, especially in slower paced games, as they are now 5-1 ATS this season on the road when the Over/Under line is 185 points or less – upping their record to 39-13- 2 ATS in such games (including 33-9-2 ATS when they are not laying more than 3 points). New York has been a feisty home dog, going 15-6- 1 ATS in that role recently, but they’re just 5-5 ATS as a home dog after a victory and my home-road ratings favor Detroit by 6 points in this game. Detroit also qualifies in a 152-80 ATS general road momentum situation and I’ll continue to ride the Pistons on the road against medium or slow tempo teams, as long as the line is fair.
Downgrade Detroit to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 3 points.
2 Star Selection
UTAH (-1 or better) 95 New Jersey 87
01-Dec-03 06:05 PM Pacific Time
The Nets played last night in Sacramento and the trip to Salt Lake City is not an easy one this time of year. Also, playing in the thin air of Utah can be a problem for unrested teams, who tend to tire in the 4th quarter while sucking for air. The Jazz have taken advantage of that favorable scheduling situation for years and they are 60-27-1 ATS when hosting unrested teams, as long as they are not favored by more than 15 points (1-0 ATS this year). Utah has transitioned well into the post Stockton-Malone era and they are obviously an underrated team – going 9-6 straight up and 10-3-1 ATS this season. The Nets, meanwhile, are an overrated team with a 7-9 straight up record and a 6-10 ATS mark. My ratings actually favor the Jazz by 3 ½ points in this game with Utah pointguard Carlos Arroyo out of the lineup. Arroyo has played great this season, but the Jazz are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS without Arroyo this season, as Raul Lopez has filled in nicely when needed. The Nets have struggled on the road in general the last few years and they’re only 25-40 ATS in non-division road games in the Jason Kidd era, including 13-28 ATS in games when not getting at least 3 points. There have only been 2 occasions all season in which Utah lost straight up and to the pointspread in the same game and their opponents in those games were Sacramento and Dallas. New Jersey is clearly not in that league and I’ll take the Jazz in a favorable situation with good line value.
3 Star Selection
San Antonio (-9 points or less) 105 L.A. CLIPPERS 89
01-Dec-03 07:35 PM Pacific Time
The Spurs have played 10 games with stars Tim Duncan and Tony Parker in the lineup together and they are playing at a rate that is 9 ½ points better than an average team in those games (adjusted for strength of opposition, of course). The Clippers, meanwhile, has played at a level 6 ½ points worse than an average team this season and my math model favors the Spurs by 11 points in this game. San Antonio will surely be focused for this game after losing to the Lakers and Warriors in their last two games. In fact the Spurs apply to a very good 125-61-6 ATS road bounce-back situation (at -9 points or less only) and that angle is an even better 68-22-3 ATS if going against teams on a losing streak. San Antonio, meanwhile, has a long history of not letting down against bad teams and they are now 58-26- 2 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or more and 70-34 ATS as a road favorite of 2 points or more against a losing team when rested (including 17-5 ATS after a loss). This is a good combination of a general situation, team trends and line value and I’ll take the Spurs in a Best Bet at -9 points or less.
Downgrade San Antonio to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 8 points
Pass on San Antonio if they are favored by more than 9 points.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
FLORIDA STATE (-19 points or less) 77 Northwestern 51
01-Dec-03 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Florida State is a team on the rise under coach Leonard Hamilton, whose assembled a team loaded with young talent (the nation’s best recruiting class according to most recruiting services) and a likely 1st Team All-ACC wingman in senior Tim Pickett. The ‘Noles are taking no prisoners in early season play so far this season, as now have the offensive talent to go along with the outstanding play on the defensive side of the floor that they established in Hamilton’s first year with the program. This year, the Seminoles have allowed just 32% shooting while forcing an average of 23 turnovers, and their athletic frontcourt players will dominate inside and force the poor shooting Wildcats to settle for perimeter jumpers. Young teams tend to play much better at home and Florida State should add to their recent 19-9- 1 ATS mark at home. The Seminoles qualify in a very strong 54-13-2 ATS ACC non-conference home favorite situation that is an incredible 36-3 ATS when applying before the ACC season begins. That angle is 2- 0 for me this year (I passed on the one game that didn’t win this year) and I’ll go with Florida State to produce another easy win in front of the home fans against an outmanned Northwestern team.
Downgrade Florida State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they are favored by more than 17 points
Pass on Florida State if they are favored by more than 19 points.
2 Star Selection
NEW MEXICO (-9 points or less) 79 Portland 63
01-Dec-03 06:00 PM Pacific Time
New Mexico suffered through its worst season in years in Ritchie McKay’s first year at the helm, but 4 returning starters should be enough to counterbalance the loss of the nation’s leading scorer, Rueben Douglass, and I expect the Lobos to play better as a team this season. Portland returns 5 starters, but I don’t expect those players to be much better than they were in last year’s sorry 11-17 campaign. My pre-season ratings favor New Mexico by 11 points and the Lobos qualify in a very strong 134-60-6 ATS home momentum situation if they remain favored by 9 points or less. Portland has played a couple of points better than their initial rating, but the line would be fair even if they continued to play at that slightly higher level. I’ll lay 9 points or less with New Mexico in a 2-Star Best Bet.
