Lost in Saskatchewan's late season collapse when Durant was hurt was how good they were early. With Glenn as a backup the team should be much more capable of competing if Durant gets hurt. The offensive line was a weak point last year. Durant gets hit too much and I don't see that getting better this season. If anything the O-line could be worse. Durant is good enough to counteract the pressure for the most part but I'm worried about him staying upright. If Durant gets hurt I'm not sure Glenn stays healthy either... so the QB depth might not matter a whole lot anyway. One thing the Riders have done well the past few seasons is run the ball but the team is trying to pass more this year and I think that may be a bad idea considering their O-line's pass-protecting ability. If anything I'd like to see the team run MORE to keep Durant healthy. The defense is good enough to rely upon with a good rushing attack, but might not hold in a scheme tailored more toward passing. I'm not a fan of the coaching philosophy to pass more if it comes to fruition. Ultimately the team will score points and force a ton of turnovers but it seems likely their stud QB will probably get hurt in the process at some point. I think this squad takes a step back and it wouldn't surprise me if the rebuild starts next season.
On to Edmonton. This team made me some nice money last year. The Eskimos were arguably the most complete/best team in the CFL in 2014. They did everything well on both sides of the football. The offensive line showed a massive improvement. The team just couldn't stop Calgary. If the Eskimos didn't have to face the Stampeders in the playoffs they'd probably own the Grey Cup right now. If you can't run the ball you probably won't move the ball on this defense. Losing John White for the season is a problem but I've always considered running backs the most overrated position on the football field. Edmonton should be fine there. That being said the offensive line is going to be an issue early with Rottier hurt and O'Donnell with the Bengals. If the offense struggles early the defense is good enough to take over and produce a ton of low-scoring games. The team might start a bit slow offensively but they should be one of the best CFL teams in the 2nd half if Reilly stays healthy.
Finally the Grey Cup champ Calgary. Best team in the CFL for a few years running as far as I'm concerned. The squad excels at everything. That being said the Stampeders don't seem to be as strong as last year. They lost 2 key offensive linemen and that is huge for them. Look for Cornish and Mitchell to both take a step back with a weaker line. Calgary will still score points but they won't be as good as last year after losing 2 very important pieces up front. Defense loses a few important pieces as well. Calgary has depth but are not as good as last year. Ultimately even down a tick this might be the best team in the CFL again. The coaching staff and front office do a fantastic job and I'm sure Calgary will be in the thick of the hunt come playoff time. I'd say the offense takes a step back but is still one of the top 3 in the CFL, while the defense is also top 3. They're still dominant... just not as good.
I like the Calgary/Hamilton under 53 but I'm too scared to play unders with the new rules this early. Going to pass on unders for a week or 2 until I can see how the refs are calling the interference stuff.
Eskimos -5 on the neutral field with Ray out looks nice. I'll play that one. Edmonton's offense isn't going to score a ton in the 1st half against top defenses but I don't think Toronto is good enough to stop them.
Saskatchewan should cover the 7.5 but I think I'll try to hold out for a 7. Their pass rush is going to give Willy issues.
That's about all that looks good so far. I usually go pretty small with my action early.
Eskimos -5 on the neutral field with Ray out looks nice. I'll play that one. Edmonton's offense isn't going to score a ton in the 1st half against top defenses but I don't think Toronto is good enough to stop them.
Saskatchewan should cover the 7.5 but I think I'll try to hold out for a 7. Their pass rush is going to give Willy issues.
That's about all that looks good so far. I usually go pretty small with my action early.
Nice break down on all the teams, thanks Jake. My rankings were just based on well each team has done against the closing line over the last three seasons, nothing too in depth. Are there any kind of strategies you use in the CFL with the info you get from sportsoptions?
This is great information.
For what it's worth, this is how I'd rank the teams...
1. Calgary
2. Edmonton
3. B.C.
4. Saskatchewan
5. Hamilton
6. Winnipeg
7. Montreal
8. Toronto
9. Ottawa
I'd have to side with Sherwood's assessment of Henry Burris, the dude is flat out old. If you saw him last year, his accuracy continues to get worse (which is saying a lot).
Calgary's the class of the league, and with this being Hufnagel's last year, it could give them motivation to go out on a high.
Winnipeg could be a wild card, as they are hosting the Grey Cup, and have a lot of pressure to at least make the playoffs.
BC is another wild card, and honestly, if their offence can improve, they may be the eventual champions, as what was lost in last year's debacle of a season was that they had arguably the best defence in the league and have brought back their core.
I look forward to seeing everyone's picks. Personally, I tend not to bet the CFL too much, as it's such a crap shoot of a league, but it's great entertainment.
Like Edmonton/Toronto o 49.5 in week 1.
PTB
For what it's worth, this is how I'd rank the teams...
1. Calgary
2. Edmonton
3. B.C.
4. Saskatchewan
5. Hamilton
6. Winnipeg
7. Montreal
8. Toronto
9. Ottawa
I'd have to side with Sherwood's assessment of Henry Burris, the dude is flat out old. If you saw him last year, his accuracy continues to get worse (which is saying a lot).
Calgary's the class of the league, and with this being Hufnagel's last year, it could give them motivation to go out on a high.
Winnipeg could be a wild card, as they are hosting the Grey Cup, and have a lot of pressure to at least make the playoffs.
BC is another wild card, and honestly, if their offence can improve, they may be the eventual champions, as what was lost in last year's debacle of a season was that they had arguably the best defence in the league and have brought back their core.
I look forward to seeing everyone's picks. Personally, I tend not to bet the CFL too much, as it's such a crap shoot of a league, but it's great entertainment.
Like Edmonton/Toronto o 49.5 in week 1.
PTB
FWIW, the CFL website has a mini writeup on each team in the following article.
Here is the Hamilton bit:
EAST DIVISION
1st Place - Hamilton Tiger-Cats
I know this is an easy pick as they've been to back-to-back Grey Cups and I don't see the teams around them getting any better enough to challenge. Zach Collaros will be improved in 2014 with Kent Austin and they look solid behind them if an injury were to sneak in. The loss of Delvin Breaux in the secondary will be tough to overcome for the secondary as will the injuries up front to the defensive line but those problems pale in comparison to what's going on with the other three teams in the division.
Biggest question – Defensive line – Losing Lindon Gaydosh and then Brian Bulcke within weeks of each other takes a big chunk out of the interior of the defensive line and will have Austin having to rejuggle the ratio. Ted Laurent helps but who plays beside / behind him
http://cfl.ca/article/prediction-time-do-the-ticats-have-what-it-takes-this-year
Here is the Hamilton bit:
EAST DIVISION
1st Place - Hamilton Tiger-Cats
I know this is an easy pick as they've been to back-to-back Grey Cups and I don't see the teams around them getting any better enough to challenge. Zach Collaros will be improved in 2014 with Kent Austin and they look solid behind them if an injury were to sneak in. The loss of Delvin Breaux in the secondary will be tough to overcome for the secondary as will the injuries up front to the defensive line but those problems pale in comparison to what's going on with the other three teams in the division.
Biggest question – Defensive line – Losing Lindon Gaydosh and then Brian Bulcke within weeks of each other takes a big chunk out of the interior of the defensive line and will have Austin having to rejuggle the ratio. Ted Laurent helps but who plays beside / behind him
http://cfl.ca/article/prediction-time-do-the-ticats-have-what-it-takes-this-year
So Crompton and LeFevour both hurt in week 1 for Montreal. Hard to gauge much of anything. Crompton wasn't doing well before he got hurt though. Was it because Ottawa's defense is strong or Montreal's offense is weak or is Crompton just not as good as we thought he was? Montreal's defense was strong. I like Burris more than some of you guys and think he'll do just fine against the bottom half of CFL defenses. Anyone else notice anything of interest from game 1?
I'm big on looking at regression too in sports betting. It's like counting cards in Black Jack. Good luck this season.
good discussion...i'm a winnipeg fan and i really think we are still in "prove basic proficiency" mode..i do think the bombers have done some interesting things with canadian starters last few year. some OL development and sherman/westerman on Dnon-imports are key .... good imports are ubiquitious but takes some time to get the right ones and put them together. and me thinks there's been too many changes at key basic positions like LB (not rocket science but can't have too many guys new to canadian ball out there at once)
What is wrong with Edmonton right now? I figured their offense would have some issues early with the O-line injuries but their defense should at least carry them. Today Toronto's backup QB is having plenty of success. Eskimos' defense really didn't lose much. They should be one of the best on that side of the ball but are having no success against the Argos. Toronto had lots of offensive injuries last season and I figured they'd be much stronger on that side of the ball but never expected Edmonton to get trounced like this.
