Anyone see a line on Obama?

slick69 · Dec 24, 2006

SSI said:
John Edwards will beat them both for the dem side......[/quote

John Edwards is probably the one with value. I can"t see Obama or a broad winning

Doug · Dec 24, 2006

Even better for B.O. Chicago is a big-ass major city, Illinois has some electoral votes, to help the home team in all or nothing electoral fashion.

Distribution of Electoral Votes

Total Electoral Vote: 538
Needed to Elect: 270
<HR><TABLE width=515 border=1><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD width=161>[SIZE=+3]State[/SIZE]

</TD><TD width=119>[SIZE=+2]1981-1990[/SIZE]

</TD><TD width=117>[SIZE=+2]1991-2000[/SIZE]

</TD><TD width=117>[SIZE=+2]2001-2010[/SIZE]

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Alabama[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>9</TD><TD width=117>9</TD><TD width=117>9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Alaska[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Arizona[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>7</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>10</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Arkansas[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>6</TD><TD width=117>6</TD><TD width=117>6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>California[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>47</TD><TD width=117>54</TD><TD width=117>55</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Colorado[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Connecticut[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Delaware[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>D.C.[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Florida[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>21</TD><TD width=117>25</TD><TD width=117>27</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Georgia[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>12</TD><TD width=117>13</TD><TD width=117>15</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Hawaii[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Idaho[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Illinois[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>24</TD><TD width=117>22</TD><TD width=117>21</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Indiana[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>12</TD><TD width=117>12</TD><TD width=117>11</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Iowa[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>8</TD><TD width=117>7</TD><TD width=117>7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Kansas[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>7</TD><TD width=117>6</TD><TD width=117>6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Kentucky[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>9</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Louisiana[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>10</TD><TD width=117>9</TD><TD width=117>9</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Maine[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Maryland[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>10</TD><TD width=117>10</TD><TD width=117>10</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Massachusetts[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>13</TD><TD width=117>12</TD><TD width=117>12</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Michigan[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>20</TD><TD width=117>18</TD><TD width=117>17</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Minnesota[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>10</TD><TD width=117>10</TD><TD width=117>10</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Mississippi[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>7</TD><TD width=117>7</TD><TD width=117>6</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Missouri[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Montana[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Nebraska[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Nevada[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>New Hampshire[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>New Jersey[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>16</TD><TD width=117>15</TD><TD width=117>15</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>New Mexico[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>New York[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>36</TD><TD width=117>33</TD><TD width=117>31</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>North Carolina[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>13</TD><TD width=117>14</TD><TD width=117>15</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>North Dakota[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Ohio[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>23</TD><TD width=117>21</TD><TD width=117>20</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Oklahoma[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Oregon[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>7</TD><TD width=117>7</TD><TD width=117>7</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Pennsylvania[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>25</TD><TD width=117>23</TD><TD width=117>21</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Rhode Island[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD><TD width=117>4</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>South Carolina[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD><TD width=117>8</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>South Dakota[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Tennessee[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Texas[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>29</TD><TD width=117>32</TD><TD width=117>34</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Utah[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>[/SIZE] </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Vermont[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Virginia[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>12</TD><TD width=117>13</TD><TD width=117>13</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Washington[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>10</TD><TD width=117>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>West Virginia[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>6</TD><TD width=117>5</TD><TD width=117>5</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Wisconsin[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>11</TD><TD width=117>11</TD><TD width=117>10</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle>[SIZE=+1]<TD width=161>Wyoming[/SIZE]</TD><TD width=119>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD><TD width=117>3</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD width=161> </TD><TD width=119> </TD><TD width=117> </TD><TD width=117> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Last Update: 10/3/03

Doug · Dec 24, 2006

B.O. is a possible bet, but he has to do something with the initials... It lacks the ring of JFK, LBJ,FDR ( for Wilheim) :103631605

Ironman_8 · Dec 24, 2006

max1234 said:
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>12-24-2006 08:29 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 3598826" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Railbird</TD><TD class=alt2>I dont think Obama is perceived as black.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
No, Rail, he's actually perceived as being Chinese..... stick with LL baseball and tennis, it's obvious you don't have a clue about politics either.

Unfortunately rail is correct. Obama hasn't really touched on some of the "black" hot topic issues such as affirm. action. Even some blacks (not including myself) seem a little distrustful of him because of that.

About a month ago, Stanley Crouch wrote a controversial op-ed piece basically saying Obama wasn't black enough because he couldn't relate to the plight of the majority of blacks in America by having a Kenyan father.

Here's the article http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/467300p-393261c.html

Doug · Dec 24, 2006

Drunken Horseplayer said:
I'd vote for him in a second but a lot of voters won't; given that the Dems' two leading candidates are a black dude and a woman, you've gotta like the Repubs at +100.

I hate the repubs at even. I think the best modern donkey ( Clinton) would stand a chance, he was at least real. Hell, I'd vote for Jimmy Carter if he's still alive and I cared enough to vote.

I had 5 people in the room earlier from 21-50 years old, not a one had ever voted in their lives, at least as the 2nd oldest of the group, I have my reasons to not vote ( see election of 1876).

Doug · Dec 24, 2006

I might even go as far as far as voting for B.O., if I ever vote. I tell you I think this guy could be the next JFK. However I probably lay off betting as it's out of my norm and long-term.

looks like a prime horse with decent odds and good teeth to me. :suomi:

JohnnyB · Dec 25, 2006

Doug said:
Even better for B.O. Chicago is a big-ass major city, Illinois has some electoral votes, to help the home team in all or nothing electoral fashion.

Doug, Illinois would go Dem regardless of who runs so the "home state advantage" argument is a moot point.

JackStraw77 · Dec 25, 2006

Osama Hussein getting elected that would be like Lucifer AntiChrist getting elected Pope.

BetIt · Dec 25, 2006

6-1 is pretty fair.....Dems are in love with this guy and if (when) he declares...he'll shortly become the front runner for the nod...i think edwards is the only one that can derail him (that has declared)....

Clinton's votes for the wars (about 3 years worth) will KILL HER IN THE PRIMARY. She is also scared shitless now that Obama is picking up steam.. I wouldn't be surprised to see her think twice about this run.....Also Obama will only have 2 sessions worth of votes to be attacked on.

IMO: the best person to derail Obama is Al Gore...basically on the 'buyers remorse' angle from 2000.

Do yourself a favor and ask people tomorrow (at x-mas dinner, etc) what they think about Obama....you'd be surprised what you get....if they know him you will hear...young, vibrant, kennedy esque, clinton esque (bill)...."the type of person that can turnaround this country around."

this guy is live at 6-1...for hedging purposes alone...what is the max wager?

Doug · Dec 25, 2006

Johnny B said:
Doug, Illinois would go Dem regardless of who runs so the "home state advantage" argument is a moot point.

I'm sure you know politics better than me, I probably don't belong in this thread at all... I think I'll exit before I embarass myself while stating I think the Black (ish) dude is a decent shot at good odds, Y'all can't back a fav at short odds with a long-term bet... my Momma dun told me when I was a young'un !

I think it best for me to leae this thread.

GreenDoberman · Dec 25, 2006

Railbird giving Obama a sign of confidence should be a MAJOR buy signal for everyone on here.
Great guy, great picks, but not exactly Mr. Cultural Diversity and unbiased.
I heed this advice strongly.

BetIt · Dec 25, 2006

it's early, can't put too much stock in this but........

A new Research 2000 poll in Iowa shows John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama tied among likely Democratic caucus voters with 22% each. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack trails with 12%, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton at just 10%. All other potential candidates are in the single digits.

In a New Hampshire presidential primary, a new Research 2000 poll shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) leads the pack of potential 2008 candidates in the Democratic race with 22%. However, she's closely followed by Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) at 21%, John Edwards (D) at 16% and Al Gore at 10%

GilRenard · Dec 25, 2006

I don't know. I really think that Hillary and Obama are going to fracture the Democratic voters. I don't think either one of them are electable because they will both have problems in the south. I would say either Edwards or possibly Gore (as a dark horse) could slide in with the nomination.

On the Republican side, I really hope that McCain doesn't get nominated. I really think that the middle of the road voters are getting tired of the "family values" bullshit that he preaches. I would say Giulianni could make a strong run, but he'd have problems in the south as well....

Railbird · Dec 25, 2006

I think 40 states are pre determind and then there is 10 swing states, seems like they were PA,Oh,Fla, and then insignigant states. like Doug was saying, its about girls, people in middle, and young people. Would think most new voters would go for Obama like Clinton in 92. Think housewives vote for Obama befor Mccain, obviously Blacks also think most new voters, young and immigrants vote BO also, Might even be a landslide.

Also saw where Hillary was 4th in Iowa, way behind.

Presto · Dec 25, 2006

This Obama Huesein (sp) guy has a snow ball's chance in hell of being elected the next president. I'd give 10-1 in a heartbeat.

wsox · Dec 25, 2006

Anyone have a current line on Al Gore? Curious to see where he is in relation to Obama. Would think he's a longer shot than Barak as he's flying under the radar for the dem nomination. Would not be suprised if he throws his hat in the ring for another go, and if he does he has some advantages with fundraising and connections within the dem party. Didn't like Gore the candidate in 2000 but feel he has become much more passionate, vocal and eloquent about his views since then.

A dem doesn't need to worry about the south one bit except for florida. you can write the rest off and still win the election (although dems will be more competetive in the south with new DNC 50 state strategy).

WildBill · Dec 26, 2006

You guys are all overlooking some obvious issues right now.

1. Senators face a tough road. The longer you have been there, the harder. Look at the losers and winners since we went to the TV age. How many were Senators? Just too many votes leading to too many "in the closet" issues. Look at how Team W twisted single votes or statements made over a decade earlier into supposed positions for Kerry. Kerry voted for a gas tax increase once many years prior, yet suddenly Kerry was certain to raise gas taxes, never mind that Presidents don't pass taxes, they just sign them. Obama hasn't been there too long and wasn't part of the leadership, might be able to overcome this. Hillary probably has been there too long. McCain is an institution, this could kill him.

2. Forget about where the candidates are from. Al Gore couldn't win his home state. That alone should say enough about the value of trying to steal votes with a hometown guy. Maybe taking a very uncertain state and adding a favorite son (or daughter) might help, but only in the handful of states where votes can be swung.

3. I can't understand why, but Texas has been very much forgotten. People in the political circles have missed it or just aren't talking about it, but Texas has gone from strong Red to modest Blue. Without W running, who knows how it might turn out. Thing is Texas is Blue in very specific ways, almost like Florida and how so much of it rides in pandering to Cubans. Texas you pander to Mexicans. I can't wait to see how the GOP tries to get support from this group considering their bridge-burning escapades in power. But they have to. I have a sneaky suspicion how they work the Mexican-American vote and how they work Texas could be the key to the election. I don't think McCain will get it done, border state sensibilities might give him a shot, but other than for the military crowd I don't think he can really score. His age and his views just don't strike me as the type of image which will rally Texans. Romney's DOA, his religion and his state's step up against immigrants will burn him. Then again I really don't see how he scores anywhere, he feels just like a carpetbagger who makes Clinton's flip flops feel natural. Rudy just might work, that might be the guy to watch for the Texas vote at the very least.

So in my mind you have to think about Texas, look from the ranks of non-Senators, and really think about what sort of person crosses the country. Someone who isn't held up by bad issues, someone who isn't too tied to a sensitive issue. It might be hard to derail the leaders at this point, but then again no one really thought Kerry was a leading factor at this time in 2002. In this regard Obama does seem to be a good value bet. I think the Dems could better assure themselves a win by going deeper into the pool, but with the Congress sewn up they won't show such desperation. Each faction is going to want their guy (or woman) leading. The GOP might be the one's who go with the desperation move and pick electable. In such a case you might want to buy a few Rudy futures because I think the Dems would have a hard time beating him with the candidates they have in the lead right now.

BetIt · Dec 26, 2006

Wild Bill; agree with just about everything you said...however...on the Republican side...you think Rudy....a same sex civil union advocate, a pro abortion governor, and someone who had an affair in office with the state paying for the mistress housing is gonna get through a conservative primary....

no way....

assassin · Dec 26, 2006

Doug said:
I tell you I think this guy could be the next JFK.

Talk about daming with faint praise.
Doug, do you mean you think
a) he would e as poor a president as JFK; or
b) would end up dead like JFK

please clarify

Railbird · Dec 26, 2006

Rudy has no chance,

Guy is a baby killer, southerners hate yankees, he is a 3 time loser in marriage. Obama is handsome and likable. Girls dont like Mccain he has gray hair, Hillary has too much nurse Ratchet in her, I dont think she will be close.