Anyone play with a personal rule of never betting over a 115 fav?

[TheGeneral+]

Just curious if this is good strategy to help a newer guy do better. I have a list of do's and dont's. Is it a good rule to not play over a certain vig amount strictly? Maybe some of us will not lay any vig!

Comments

 

[DannyMay]

My opinion is that it isnt good strategy to blindly lay off any play about a certain level. It all depends on the value in that play. I mean if I am playing a round with Tiger Woods and you can get Tiger Woods at -500 its still a great bet.

 

[DarrylParsons]

My rule is that the bigger a fav it is, the bigger the difference has to be between what I think the proper odds are and what they really are. For example, if I think a team should be at -200, then I will bet it if it is -150 or better. If I think it should be at -150 I'll bet it if it's -125 or better. If I think it should be even money, then I'll bet it if it's +105 or better.

I think this kind of sliding scale approach makes more sense than a hard and fast rule like the one you mention.

 

[MadCapper]

Bases?

My rule in bases is never to bet anything more than a -160 favorite.

-MC

 

[sickgambler]

NO

That is a myth.. You can find value on a -260 sometimes, too.. If a line is off, it's off. Don't make a difference how much you're laying.

 

[sickgambler]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by MadCapper:
Bases?

My rule in bases is never to bet anything more than a -160 favorite.

-MC<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Mad, how can you say that? What if Pedro is pitching at home and the line is so waaaay off and instead of -230, for some reason, the linesmakers make it -165, you're not going to lay it because it's over -160?

 

[Fishhead]

Very hard to find decent value when betting into 30 cent lines and above.....but like SG said.....it is possible.

 

[Chadster]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by sick gambler:
NO

That is a myth.. You can find value on a -260 sometimes, too.. If a line is off, it's off. Don't make a difference how much you're laying.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

And the preacher spoke and the congregation listened.

 

[MadCapper]

Sick -

That can be a mistake...or they can know something we don't.

I stay away

-MC

 

[sickgambler]

Mad, listen well. The reason why it don't matter what you're laying is because if you find a game that you handicapped and see it has a better than 62% chance of winning, and you are laying -160, then it's worth it to lay it. If you find a game that according to you, will win 75% of the time, and you are laying -260, play it.. You will end up a winner. The juice has NOTHING to do with winning or losing, it's all in the value.

Would you lay -2200 on an NBA game. Probably not right? But what if that game happens to be the Lakers at home and they are a 23.5 point favorite and all they have to do is win outright and not cover. Wouldn't laying 2200 become a good bet because they will win outright a good 96% of the time, which would show a profit.

Remember, what you lay or take has nothing to do with being a good bet or not. If that line is off according to your numbers, then bet it...

 

[TheGeneral+]

If I were to be really discipline about my betting to the degree I expected to really make a difference financially, I would never lay over 110 on an ATS bet.

 

[Chadster]

More good points

 

[Fishhead]

SICK IS EXACTLY RIGHT. WOULD YOU LAY -1300 with Pedro over your little league team?? OF COURSE!!

 

[TheGeneral+]

Laying a big NBA ML is never a good bet IMO.

 

[MadCapper]

SICK - I hear you. Then again, the Lakers did lose to the Cavs last year. Line was -1400 I think.

Thats 1400 down the drain just to win 100.

-MC

 

[Fishhead]

HINT- NEVER bet a fav in the NFL and you are INSTANTLY gauranteed in lowering your vig from -110 to -105. Many amatuers do not know this.

 

[MadCapper]

Strutt....little league yes...

Any Major League team...no!

-MC

 

[sickgambler]

Ok, somehow I get the feeling Jay Leno is being a little sarcastic with me now..

Yes mad, they might have lost, but they will win 19 out of 20 times, which would show you a profit. That happened to have been the 1 time they didn't cover.

Fish, good example of Pedro. That's why it is silly when people say they won't lay over -160 no matter who's playing.

And Jay Leno, once again, stop mocking me you bastard..

 

[jwunderdog]

"Just curious if this is good strategy to help a newer guy do better.", Key phrase "newer guy", I assume that to mean someone who is still trying to figure out the difference between being on the value side of a bet and winning a bet.In my opinion you will find value more often in games at -150 or better then Vice-versa.-115 if you are talking about ML betting is eliminating a pretty large pool.You can get in a hell of a lot of trouble faster betting -200 then -110.

 

[Fishhead]

jw- congrats on your new avatar.....may be the #1 avatar at the RX now. Good get!!